Defensiebegrotingen en -problematiek, niet NL

[Mark H]

A boom in prices of agricultural and mineral commodities that Brazil currently produces, and the prospects of a bonanza from the Tupi oil field provide the background for a rapid increase in military spending in Brazil.

The total sum of budgeted procurements during 2008-2011 is scheduled to be US$10bn greater than in previous budgets. Available defence funds to update old infrastructure and equipment will depend on economic growth as a high proportion of the defence budget is scheduled for pensions and personnel, reportedly 80% at the end of 2007. A small, 4% remained for defence investment purposes, at end 2007.

Our current view is that Brazil's defence spending will not actually increase as a percentage of GDP in the coming years, although Defence Minister Jobim has stated that there will be substantial increases. Defence spending in Brazil is currently around 1.5% of GDP and remains one of the lowest in the world.

Despite this, the announcements made by Jobim since his appointment in July 2007, to substantially increase defence spending, mark an important change for the defence industries of Brazil and the security sector throughout Latin America. The administration of President Lula has not favoured large defence budgets, in keeping with previous Brazilian governments' policies. The relationship between the government and the military has been traditionally tense, as a result of Brazil's period of military rule during the 1980s. This has been no better under Lula's Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT), and interactions between the two remain terse. Brazil has had a long period of under-investment in defence and security resources. However, the country's fairly recent change in direction mirrors the decisions of other South American nations, such as Venezuela, Chile and (to a lesser extent), Columbia, which have also expanded their military capabilities.

Jobim has raised Brazil's defence procurement budget from US$3.6bn in 2008 to US$5.6bn in 2009. His talks with France and Russia are also significant. The development of a maintenance complex to service Russian military aircraft is one of Jobim's plans under discussion with Russian authorities. Brazil and France continue to decide the terms of an agreement for purchase of a diesel-electric Scorpene class submarine and attendant technology transfer. These discussions are also down to Jobim and his objectives for change. The possible resumption of Brazil's historic plans for developing a nuclear submarine has also been raised by Jobim. Whilst not confirmed as a development project, the Scorpene could be a model used for the project. In another development, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez may be forced to service his aircraft fleet in Brazil, a development which could be very unsettling for Venezuela.

Previously the Chavez administration bought 24 Sukhoi Su-30MK2s and 33 helicopters from Russia, however it was not able to secure a transfer agreement for technology Whilst BMI projections doubt that increased defence spending during 2008-2001 will lift defence as a proportion of GDP, we acknowledge that spending will certainly increase as a percentage of government spending, from the current level of about 6%. In addition BMI has assumed that the manpower of Brazil's armed services will increase by around 2% per annum. The 2008 intake of military personnel is predicted to rise by 100,000.

Brazil's economic outlook in 2008 will be impacted by the softening of more conducive conditions in 2006 and 2007. The inflows of foreign direct investment reached a record level of US$37.4bn in 2007. These funds have been essential to economic growth and they are expected to drop off in 2008. However Brazil has a solid position to withstand such challenges. Our view for GDP growth in 2008 remains a robust 4.7%. GDP growth for 2007 is estimated to have been 5%. We see this decrease as owing mainly to the importance of domestic demand for the next phase of Brazil's expansion, rather than external factors.

The plans by government to boost spending on defence cannot be mentioned without noting the discovery of the extensive Tupi offshore oilfield. The oilfield is massive and should give a boost of more than 50% to Brazil's oil reserves. Given the tightening supply of oil worldwide, the long-term revenue potential of the Tupi reserves for Brazil's government cannot be underestimated. The opportunity presented by this development has been used by Lula's administration to increase defence spending.

Brazil has a more substantial and diverse offering of indigenous armaments companies able to provide equipment to the armed forces. The Brazilian Congress has been asked to change the rules for military purchases by Defence Minister Jobim, thereby permitting the government to 'develop an industrial defence policy.' As such Brazilian companies will not benefit substantially from the increased defence budget. For example the construction of the weaponry, hull, and cybernetic stuffing for the possible nuclear submarine project would be in Brazil, according to the Defence Ministry. Meanwhile, developing countries will continue to take imports from the Brazilian companies as their products carry a reputation of being good value for money.

General elections are to be held in 2010 and municipal elections will take place this October. A reliance on President Lula's personal popularity by his Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT) may continue to undermine prospective presidential candidates for the party. This is in evidence at present as tensions are increasing between the PT and Brazil's main opposition parties leading up to the municipal elections.

Internal security problems continue to be a concern for Brazil, especially the Amazon Basin are (where Brazil shares around 12,000km of border with seven other countries), over which the government has a weak hold over the rule of law, or in the Triple Border region (i.e. where Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay meet). The prevalence of drug-smuggling, gun-running, bio-piracy, illegal deforestation and environmental destruction by gold mines will remain key concerns for Brazil, whatever the status of relations between Venezuela and Colombia. As drugs and guns enter Brazil through the borders of various countries, urban gang violence is supported. The problem is compounded in a legal environment where the police and judicial systems are commonly inefficient and/or corrupt.

[Lex]

RAF plans huge cuts in aircraft and stations

AIR FORCE chiefs are preparing to cut 10,000 staff — a quarter of their manpower — and close up to five large air stations.

The plans will reduce the RAF's strength to 31,000 personnel over the next five years, little more than half the level during the recent Iraq conflict and seriously diminishing its capability of fighting another conventional war.

It also intends to retire the majority of its Harrier and Tornado jets early, leaving it with about 80 fewer aircraft by 2025. The cuts are part of a package prepared for the 2010 annual spending round.

They are designed to pre-empt the savage cuts expected as part of the strategic defence review promised by whichever party wins power in next year's general election.

senior RAF officer said the plans were designed to save "significant amounts of money, measured in billions of pounds a year" rather than having them forced on the service by the review.

The RAF has 19 flying stations in the UK, but the reduction in aircraft means up to five are expected to be closed and sold over the next decade.

The stations most at risk include RAF Cottesmore in Rutland and RAF Wittering in Cambridgeshire, both of which will close when the Harrier fleet is retired.

One of either RAF Marham in Norfolk or RAF Lossiemouth in Morayshire is under threat because of planned cuts to joint strike fighter numbers. So, too, is RAF Kinloss in Morayshire, with the new Nimrod MRA4 expected to move to RAF Waddington in Lincolnshire.

One plan under consideration would see all RAF fast jet training moving to RAF Valley in Anglesey, leading to the possible closure of RAF Linton-on-Ouse and RAF Leeming, both in North Yorkshire.

Other proposals would see all the RAF's Merlin helicopters move from RAF Benson in Oxfordshire to a joint RAFRoyal Navy station at what is currently Royal Naval Air Station Culdrose in Cornwall.

The proposals were ordered by Air Chief Marshal Sir Stephen Dalton, the new chief of the air staff, and the air force board ahead of the 2010 spending round. It comes with the RAF ordered to find £200m in cuts tand ensure all possible available resources are diverted to Afghanistan.

Short-term cuts will see reductions in the RAF's flying schedule, the grounding of Nimrod MR2 aircraft and Puma helicopters until April, and the mothballing of four of its seven Boeing E-3D Sentry Awacs airborne warning aircraft.

Senior RAF officers believe that whichever party wins the general election it will have to make cuts to defence because of the economic situation.

The Ministry of Defence said: "These are challenging times and, like all government departments, we routinely review spending to ensure that best use is made of the defence budget."

From The Sunday Times
November 15, 2009

[Elzenga]

Problemen zijn er dus ook elders...en dan staat Noorwegen nog bekend als een rijk land binnen Europa, gezien haar olie en gas-inkomsten...een teken aan de wand.

[Lex]

Audit Highlights Norway's Defense Funding Problems

HELSINKI - An insufficient level of funding threatens Norway's national defense capability and weakens the armed forces' ability to fulfill routine and designated obligations to NATO, warns a State Audit Office report presented to the Storting, Norway's parliament.
Responding to the report, the Storting's Foreign Affairs Committee cautioned that steps needed to be taken to adequately resource all key branches of the armed forces in order to meet the country's NATO commitments.
The shortage of funding and material resources means that several of Norway's operating Army units will struggle to be combat ready for NATO operations, the report said.
Norway's ability to support NATO-related duties and missions is also hampered by funding and logistical issues that weaken the Air Force's training budget and reduce the number of combat-ready pilots.
"Around 40 percent of the staff positions in the Norwegian Air Force joint command headquarters remain vacant," the report said.
Moreover, the report revealed that funding shortages, and the use of available monies by the armed forces, have caused funding bottlenecks to both new and existing defense structures and equipment modernization projects.
The armed forces' capacity to fulfill NATO missions will be further frustrated in the backdrop of the government's decision to reduce the Air Force's pilot and operational training budget by 65 percent in 2010, the report said.
The lack of adequate funding and material resources extends to support branches of the armed forces, said the report, which observed that the military's Medical Corps is seriously lacking in ambulance vehicles as well as medical staff.
The report also expressed concern at the lack of operational equipment available to the Army's Northern defense units, noting that just one in six Leopard tanks were "in service" when inspectors visited the Telemark Battalion.
The report also highlighted funding deficiencies for the Air Operational Inspectorate, Marine Commando units and the Army's Communications Battalion, which have left them without essential training equipment.

Defense News, Published: 29 Oct 2009 15:50

[Lex]

Resources Limit RAF Ops for Years

LONDON - Britain's Royal Air Force (RAF) will be unable to conduct operations on the scale of the 2003 invasion of Iraq for years because the resources aren't available to mount such a mission, according to the assistant chief of the Air Staff, Air Vice Marshal Timo Anderson.
The RAF's second-in-command also urged Britain to adopt a balanced list of military capabilities when it emerges from the other side of the coming Strategic Defence Review. Some of the rhetoric now starting to be voiced ahead of the review was self-serving and tribal, he said.
Constant operations overseas, equipment program slippage, financial resources and pilots losing vital skills in order to focus on counterinsurgency missions are among the issues that have taken their toll on Air Force capabilities to mount a large-scale deployment, Anderson said
"The ability to do an Op Telic [the name the British gave their Iraq mission] tomorrow just isn't there anymore, and it's going to be a considerable period of time before it is regenerated," he told reporters Oct 22.
"Some of it's to do with the state of resources in public finances. Some of it's to do with the way programs are being implemented or slipped, etc., and some of it's because we have been engaged in enduring operations for nearly 20 years and we are paying a penalty for that," he said.
Britain committed the major part of its air power resources to the Iraq conflict, including transport aircraft, fast jets, refueling tankers, helicopters, and surveillance and intelligence platforms. Those aircraft not involved were either in a high state of readiness or engaged in other key tasks such as defense of U.K. airspace.
Military planning assumptions call for British forces to be able to conduct one large-scale operation or two medium-sized missions at any one time.
The RAF's second-in-command said the impact of 20 years of operations on aircraft, spares and support couldn't be underestimated. Focus on Afghanistan and Iraq operations meant pilot skills such as the ability to fly night, electro-optical, low-level operations would have to be relearned.
Now it is heavily embroiled in the campaign to fight the Taliban. But it's a war where the British Army has dominated the headlines, in part because it has suffered most from the rising list of casualties. Some Air Force officers say the vital work of their pilots and ground crews has gone largely unheralded.
Why is that important? Whichever political party wins the general election scheduled for the first half of next year will immediately conduct a Strategic Defence Review. The scramble for a fair share, or more, of the scarce resources likely to be available to the military is already underway.
Anderson admitted there was a level of frustration in the RAF over how the role of air power in Afghanistan is being presented to taxpayers and others at a time when some critics were questioning its relevance in an era of counterinsurgency operations.
"The counterinsurgency is a partnership of equals. It's about boots on the ground and, equally essentially, boots in the cockpit. Take either of those components away and you don't have a campaign," he said.
The RAF has eight Tornado strike aircraft based at Kandahar, Afghanistan, along with significant numbers of helicopters, air transport, ISTAR, Reaper UAVs, force protection and other assets. The British also have Apache attack helicopters, but they are operated by the Army.
Anderson said that, although the Apaches were quite successful, the Tornados were a very cost-effective way of projecting force across the whole of Afghanistan.
The strike aircraft's reach and speed of response means that from sitting on the ground at Kandahar Air Base, the fighter can get as far as the borders of Pakistan and Iran within 30 minutes. To replicate the Tornado capability would require 60 to 70 times the number of Apaches, he said.
One RAF officer, recently returned from Afghanistan as Britain's Harrier force was replaced with Tornados after a five-year deployment, outlined the contribution the fast jets had made to the operation.
"Joint Force Harrier [which includes Air Force and Royal Navy jets] flew 8,557 sorties and 22,771 flying hours. On average, one in 10 of the missions had resulted in weapons release," he said.
With the defense review looming, and the current Labour administration already set to produce a green paper on the subject early next year, the RAF and the other services are positioning themselves for what Anderson said would be some "really rather painful decisions on how we deliver defense in the future."
"If the target were just the RAF, I would be very concerned. What I would be more prepared to accept is that if we are looking at what the nation can afford, we are looking at delivering for as much money as the taxpayer can offer a balanced capability on the far side of the Strategic Defence Review. ... Then, OK, I will live with that.
"What makes some hairs twitch on the back of my neck is when I hear some of the rhetoric going around, whether it is positioning or posturing or shaping for the review. This is not confined to the genuinely naïve or ignorant; there are some who really should know better making statements bordering on the disingenuous and self-serving.
"This is not the time or the climate to do that sort of thing in the defense of this nation, and the ability for us to get a balanced defense capability is of much greater importance than some self-serving tribal objective," he said.
Anderson said there would have to be trades done.
"But convincing ourselves that because we can buy Reapers and not put people in them, and because they carry bombs they do the same job as the Harrier, Tornado and other fast jets, there is absolutely no way that's the case and not likely to be for many years."
The air chief said Reaper was fine in a benign air environment, but when there was an air–to-air or ground-to-air-threat, it would be "toast."
"Trading things like Joint Strike Fighter in terms of overall capability doesn't seem a sensible option. Numbers, yes. There is going to be a discussion about everything. Numbers of troops, numbers of ships, numbers of aircraft. We have to be prepared to take our place in that."
Critics have condemned the RAF for continuing to purchase Cold War aircraft like the Typhoon to operate alongside legacy fighters such as the Tornado.
Anderson said that far from being legacy aircraft, they had transferred from the Cold War to the Gulf War to counterinsurgency operations and in all cases made an essential contribution to the British effort.
"If you have got something that flexible, that adaptable and robust ... and with all the unexpected things that are expected to be thrown at you, that is the last club to throw out of the tool bag. You want something that can take just about anything that comes your way," he said.

Defense News, Published: 26 October 2009

[Ace1]

Indonesia Plans 20 Percent Defense Spending Hike

JAKARTA, Indonesia - Indonesia will increase its defense budget by 20 percent next year to compensate for years of low spending, Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono said July 10.
Speaking two days after apparently winning re-election for a second five-year term, Yudhoyono said new defense spending was possible thanks to economic growth forecast at around six percent next year.
"Starting in 2010, we'll significantly increase our defense budget from 33.6 trillion rupiah ($3.3 billion) in 2009 into 40.6 trillion by adding about seven trillion, or 20 percent," he was quoted as saying by Antara news agency.
"We'll increase that each year ... so we can be closer to the needed minimum force" with a budget of 100-120 trillion rupiah.
At 33.6 trillion rupiah, the defense budget is just 0.67 percent of Indonesia's total budget.
Years of low defense spending in the mainly Muslim country of 234 million people have been blamed for equipment shortfalls and fatal accidents involving military aircraft.
A military helicopter crash in June killed two personnel, and a Hercules transport aircraft crash in May killed more than 100 people. Twenty-four military personnel were killed in April when their training aircraft crashed into a hangar at an air base in West Java.

AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE


In Zuid Oost Azie is een wapenwedloop aan de gang, China en India begonnen ermee, toen volgde Japan en Zuid Korea, weer later Australie en nu Indonsie. Ik dacht dat dit ook gold voor Singapore en Maleisië maar dat weet ik niet meer voor 100% zeker.
Published: 10 Jul 2009 12:25

[andré herc]

is er overigens al iets naar buiten gebracht van de strategische verkenningen?

Kijk op deze site voor info en een link naar het tussenrapport.



   
    * About yourdefence.nl
   
   Tussenrapportage verkenningen
by site moderator - Wednesday, 22 July 2009, 09:29 PM
   
Tussenrapportage_Verkenningen.pdf

De opzet van de Verkenningen bestaat uit drie fasen, een orientatie,- uitvoerings- en synthese fase. Dit tussenrapport vat de bevindingen samen van de uitvoeringsfase van het project en vormt daarmee het inhoudelijke vertrekpunt voor de synthesefase. Overeenkomstig het projectplan bevat het tussenrapport:

- De conclusies van de deelverkenningen.

- De toekomstscenario's en de mogelijke strategische schokken .

- Het derde onderdeel van de tussenrapportage, de krijgsmachtprofielen, is helaas niet beschikbaar voor het brede publiek . Dat houdt u van ons nog tegoed.

Alle resultaten van de uitvoeringsfase zullen in de synthesefase worden bewerkt tot het eindrapport van het project-Verkenningen overeenkomstig het plan van aanpak voor de synthesefase.
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[Lex]

Niet dat ik weet.

[Dr_pepper]

is er overigens al iets naar buiten gebracht van de strategische verkenningen?

[Elzenga]

snap je ook een beetje meer waarom ik altijd zo cynisch reageer op het democratie en mensenrechtenverhaal van Balkenende als het gaat om de missie in Uruzgan...en zijn normen en waarden verhaal..kilo's boter...

Dat snap ik zeer goed, het is een wederkerig frustratie van jou. Maar om dat in ieder topic te vermelden, gaat mij vanwege de zuiverheid van de onderwerpen iets te ver. Als in ieder topic een verwijzing komt naar "Uruzgan", "Balkenende", "vredesmissie", etc. dan is het overzicht binne de kortste keren zoek en dan moeten in de functie van Beheerders actie ondernemen.
Derhalve het verzoek om te blijven binnen het raamwerk van de onderhevige topics.
En dat post ik nu als lid van het DF.

ik zal mijn best doen ...maar je weet dat volgens mij veel dingen in samenhang met elkaar gebeuren of zich afspelen. Ook bij de afwegingen van bijvoorbeeld het Kabinet. Daar zal ik met regelmaat op wijzen maar de focus van het topic in het oog houden

[Lex]

snap je ook een beetje meer waarom ik altijd zo cynisch reageer op het democratie en mensenrechtenverhaal van Balkenende als het gaat om de missie in Uruzgan...en zijn normen en waarden verhaal..kilo's boter...

Dat snap ik zeer goed, het is een wederkerig frustratie van jou. Maar om dat in ieder topic te vermelden, gaat mij vanwege de zuiverheid van de onderwerpen iets te ver. Als in ieder topic een verwijzing komt naar "Uruzgan", "Balkenende", "vredesmissie", etc. dan is het overzicht binne de kortste keren zoek en dan moeten in de functie van Beheerders actie ondernemen.
Derhalve het verzoek om te blijven binnen het raamwerk van de onderhevige topics.
En dat post ik nu als lid van het DF.

[Elzenga]

Dit is toch niets nieuws. Alle landen doen dit toch reeds decennia en niemand die daar tegen optreedt.

helemaal juist....maar ik denk dus dat om die reden sommige landen nog steeds ontwikkelingshulp krijgen terwijl ze hun defensiebudgetten rustig verhogen...zolang ze de defensieorders maar bij de industrie van de gever plaatsen ...snap je ook een beetje meer waarom ik altijd zo cynisch reageer op het democratie en mensenrechtenverhaal van Balkenende als het gaat om de missie in Uruzgan...en zijn normen en waarden verhaal..kilo's boter...

[Lex]

Dit is toch niets nieuws. Alle landen doen dit toch reeds decennia en niemand die daar tegen optreedt.

[Elzenga]

Moet je mij toch eens uitleggen hoe dat dan werkt.

gaat ie... ...zoals je misschien weet mag er niet zomaar staatssteun worden gegeven aan het eigen bedrijfsleven. Krijg je te maken met Neelie Kroes :police:...Daar hebben veel Regeringen een trucje op....ze geven veel geld aan andere landen onder het mom van Ontwikkelingssamenwerking (met nadruk op samenwerking ), maar verplichten die landen dan wel het grootste gedeelte van dat geld te gebruiken voor opdrachten bij bedrijven in het land van de gulle gever zelf. Zo kan het vaak gebeuren dat de ontvanger relatief dure producten koopt bij de industrie van de ontvanger terwijl hij voor dat geld bij de eigen industrie of bedrijfjes (die zo nauwelijks werk krijgen) er een meervoud van zou hebben kunnen kopen. Bij de wederopbouw na de tsunami was dit vaak de schrijnende realiteit. 

Dus in dit geval zou het zo maar eens kunnen zijn, dat Nederland Indonesië vele miljoenen geeft aan ontwikkelingshulp... maar dan wel in een geheime notule daarvoor in ruil en min of meer dwingend verzoekt dat Indonesië haar korvetten bij een Nederlandse werf te kopen. Zodat een groot deel van die miljoenenhulp weer terugvloeit in de eigen industrie. In feiten dus een verkapte staatssteun. 

[Laurens]

Dus van het ontwikkelingsgeld aan de mensenrechtenschenders van de Indonesische regering hadden we zo'n mooi Sigma kovertje op de kop kunnen tikken. Of een update voor het wagenpark van de KMar, of een extra'tje voor het personeel van Defensie. Of hogere uitzendvergoeding voor de mensen die in Afghanistan/Sudan etc zitten. Of.....ach laat ook maar.....