Schuivende balans in de Perzische Golf

[jurrien visser (JuVi op Twitter)]

Kuwait ready for military strike against Iran: report

Foreign affairs committee to meet with Kuwait's deputy prime minister to discuss the issue
By Habib Toumi, Bureau Chief
Published: 12:40 November 13, 2011

Manama: The Kuwaiti government has prepared since 2007 a comprehensive plan to ensure that any possible military attack against Iran over its nuclear programme would not have severe effects on Kuwait, a local daily reported.

According to Kuwait Times, the government has medicine and foodstuff in store to serve the country for six to eight months during "unexpected events," and that it has also set up a tripartite committee made up of officials from the health, interior and foreign affairs ministries to review the latest developments in that regard.

Unidentified sources told the daily that the foreign affairs committee would this week hold a meeting to follow up the developments and would discuss with Shaikh Sabah Al Khalid Al Sabah, the Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Affairs Minister, the level of government's readiness in case of a sudden attack against Iran.

http://gulfnews.com/news/gulf/kuwait/kuwait-ready-for-military-strike-against-iran-report-1.929445

[Nikehercules]

Doden bij explosie op legerbasis Iran

In Iran is een zware explosie gehoord bij een legerbasis in de buurt van Teheran. Volgens Iraanse staatsmedia zijn er zeker vijftien doden gevallen.

De explosie vond plaats op een wapenopslag van een eenheid van de Revolutionaire Garde in Bidganeh, enkele tientallen kilometers ten westen van de hoofdstad. Een groot deel van het munitiedepot zou zijn ontploft.

De klap was in het centrum van Teheran goed te voelen. Door de kracht van de explosie sneuvelden ruiten in buitenwijken van de miljoenenstad. "Sommige mensen dachten dat er een aardbeving was", zegt correspondent Thomas Erdbink.

Revolutionaire Garde
De Revolutionaire Garde is het elitekorps van het Iraanse bewind. De Garde werd kort na de Iraanse revolutie in 1979 opgericht om het islamitische systeem van het land te verdedigen. De Garde is sindsdien uitgegroeid tot een belangrijke macht; het heeft eigen grond-, lucht- en marine-eenheden en een eigen geheime dienst.

Volgens Erdbink kan de explosie een ongeluk zijn, "maar ik moet erop wijzen dat de laatste jaren verschillende industriële ongelukken en ook ongelukken op legerbases met munitie hebben plaatsgevonden. Er gaan geruchten rond dat het om sabotage zou gaan."

Nucleair programma
De Revolutionaire Garde is regelmatig het doelwit van VN-acties die bedoeld zijn om Irans nucleaire plannen een halt toe te roepen. Volgens Erdbink probeert de VS in Iran gaspijpleidingen en belangrijke bases van de Garde op te blazen met hulp van lokale mensen. "Maar de Iraniërs zijn daar altijd heel erg stil over. Ze willen niet toegeven dat er zoiets mogelijk is in hun land."

De IAEA, de nucleaire waakhond van de VN, kwam dinsdag met een rapport (pdf) waarin staat dat wordt gevreesd dat het nucleaire programma van Iran een militair doel heeft. Volgens Iran zelf dient het programma enkel civiele doeleinden.

Bron:NOS

[Nikehercules]

5000! Dat is nogal wat.
Even terug gezocht, volgens de berichten kocht Israel destijds 55 GBU28's.

Ik zou de NL pers maar met een korreltje zou nemen op dit soort gebieden, in het stuk van Reuters heeft men het ondermeer over 4.900 JDAM's.

[Lex]

US may sell precision-guided bombs to UAE: Source

WASHINGTON: The U.S. government may soon announce plans for a large sale of precision-guided bombs to the United Arab Emirates, a source familiar with the arms sales plans said late on Thursday, as tensions mounted with Iran over its nuclear program.

The Pentagon is considering a significant sale of Joint Direct Attack Munitions made by Boeing Co , adding to other recent arms deals with the UAE. These include the sale of 500 Hellfire air-to-surface missiles about which U.S. lawmakers were notified in September.

The sale of Boeing-built "bunker-buster" bombs and other munitions to UAE, a key Gulf ally, is part of an ongoing U.S. effort to build a regional coalition to counter Iran.

No comment was immediately available from the Pentagon's press office or the Defense Security Cooperation Agency, which oversees foreign arms sales.

Boeing has sold thousands of JDAM bombs to the United States and its allies in recent months as they have replenished their arsenal of the popular precision-guided bombs.

Boeing spokesman Garrett Kasper said the company was unable to discuss the proposed contract since it would involve a foreign military sale, something that would be discussed at a government-to-government level.

The proposed sale, first reported by the Wall Street Journal, would expand the existing capabilities of UAE's air force to target buildings such as the bunkers and tunnels where Iran is believed to be developing nuclear or other weapons. The newspaper said Washington was eyeing the sale of 4,900 of the so-called smart bombs.

Tension over Iran's nuclear program has increased since Tuesday when the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that Tehran appeared to have worked on designing a bomb and may still be conducting secret research to that end.

Speculation has heightened in the Israeli media that Israel may strike Iran's nuclear sites and there is speculation in the Western press about a possible U.S. attack.

But U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta on Thursday warned that military action against Iran could have "unintended consequences" in the region. Tehran had warned earlier that an attack against its nuclear sites would be met by "iron fists."

Iran says its nuclear program is peaceful and that it is enriching uranium to run reactors for electricity generation.

The Obama administration is trying to build up the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council, which includes Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, UAE, and Kuwait, as a unified counterweight to Iran.

Recent arms deals approved by the administration include a record $60 billion plan to sell Saudi Arabia advanced F-15 aircraft, some 2,000-pound (907-kg) JDAMs and other powerful munitions.

The U.S. government also approved the sale of a $7 billion terminal missile defense program to UAE that would be built by Lockheed Martin Corp .

Washington has also sought to build up missile-defense systems across the region, with the goal of building an integrated network to defend against short- and intermediate-range ballistic missiles from Iran.

The UAE has a fleet of advanced U.S.-made F-16 fighters, also built by Lockheed, that could carry the JDAMs.

Once the Pentagon formally notifies lawmakers about a proposed sale, they have 30 days to raise objections, although such action is rare since sales are carefully vetted with Congress before they are formally announced.

This sale will likely include other weapons systems, including military aircraft and other weapons, according to the source familiar with the plans.

Reuters,
11 Nov, 2011

[Lex]

'VS overwegen verkoop precisiebommen aan VAE'

WASHINGTON -  De Amerikaanse overheid wil een groot aantal Hellfire anti-bunkerbommen en andere munitie verkopen aan de Verenigde Arabische Emiraten (VAE), met het oog op de oplopende spanning met Iran. Met de precisie-bommen kan de luchtmacht van de VAE bunkers, tunnels en andere gebouwen treffen waar Iran werkt aan atoombommen of andere wapens.

Het zou gaan om bijna 5000 van zulke 'bunker-bustingbommen' van fabrikant Boeing, aldus bronnen rond de wapenverkoop vrijdag.

De spanning met het streng-islamitische Iran loopt op, nu de aanwijzingen sterker worden dat het werkt aan een atoombom.

Telegraaf,
vr 11 nov 2011, 10:57

[jurrien visser (JuVi op Twitter)]

IN FOCUS: Middle East defence market keeps growing

By:   Stephen Trimble Washington DC

5 hours ago 

A news conference by the elusive ministry of defence of the United Arab Emirates was announced unexpectedly on 18 November 2009. The Dubai air show was all but over, but now the MoD would meet with the press on the afternoon of 19 November.

Until that moment it had appeared the air show - the most important aerospace industry event in the Middle East every other year - was a bust in terms of achieving clarity on several major defence orders.

Entering the event, industry officials ­wondered if a flurry of contract signings and announcements would finally settle several of the UAE's biggest armament decisions. ­Question marks hovered over potential deals for Dassault Rafale fighters, Alenia Aermacchi M-346 Master jet trainers and either Boeing 737 airborne early warning and ­control (AEW&C) platforms or Northrop Grumman E-2D Hawkeyes.

© Northrop Grumman

The E-2D Advanced Hawkeye offers long-range AEW abilities

Fifteen minutes before the 19 November press conference was supposed to begin, a look around a room gave away the likely purpose of this event. Several executives of ­Alenia Aermacchi waited with a handful of ­reporters for the MoD representative to arrive.

Several minutes late, a uniformed UAE military officer entered, strode to the front and announced the press conference was ­cancelled - alas, there would be no answers for defence industry watchers at this Dubai air show.

It is now two years later, and remarkably the three biggest questions about the UAE's armament needs remain unanswered, along with another big-ticket mystery over the status of Saudi Arabia's acknowledged interest in acquiring another batch of 72 Boeing F-15E Strike Eagles.

Once again the Dubai air show is preceded by whispers of breakthroughs at bargaining tables, especially in regards to new fighters. But arms buyers in the Middle East have always proven fickle negotiators, and there are no guarantees for any company entering this event with hopes of a signed contract.

The lack of resolution on three of the UAE's biggest deals, however, does not mean the ­region's second-largest arms buyer behind Saudi Arabia has been idle. Indeed, the UAE has led the region's spending growth over the past decade. Military spending by the six-member Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC), which includes Saudi Arabia, the UAE, ­Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman and Qatar, has grown from about $49.6 billion in 2007 to $73.4 billion in 2011, including a $5 billion jump from 2010, according to market intelligence firm Forecast International.

© Dassault

Rafale prices have forced the UAE to consider alternatives

Growth is expected to continue among GCC members at a 14% annual rate through 2015, when total spending would rise to $82.5 ­billion, Forecast estimates.

This does not include heavy investment by other countries, particularly Iraq's rapidly rebuilding military force. Forecast estimates that Baghdad will invest $12.5 billion annually in force structure, nearly equaling the ­annual expenditure of the UAE or Israel.

The increased spending of the past decade has elevated the GCC from a region dependant upon allies for security. Nowhere is this more evident than the UAE, which committed ­Dassault Mirage 2000 and Lockheed F-16 fighters to coalition air operations over Libya.News photos also revealed that Libyan rebels operated the UAE-based Adcom Systems ­Yabhon-N - a target drone likely converted into a unmanned air vehicle to provide ­airborne ­surveillance.

Meanwhile, the UAE's biggest deals for fighters, trainers and command and control aircraft are still left to sign, but the MoD in Abu Dhabi has continued an aggressive ­modernisation programme since 2009.

The first contract was signed only a month after the show ended, when the UAE purchased 26 Sikorsky UH-60M Battlehawks on 30 December 2009. It also became the first customer for the AirTractor AT-802U, a light attack version of a popular crop duster.

EXPANDING FLEET

Six Viking Air Guardian 400s - a special ­variant of the DeHavilland DHC-6 Twin Otter - purchased by a UAE company will also be operated by the country's military, according to the Stockholm International Peace ­Research Institute (SIPRI).

Meanwhile, in June 2010 the UAE added two more Boeing C-17 Globemaster IIIs to its previous order from a year earlier, raising its total fleet to six aircraft. The C-17 purchase was not a replacement, but a major capability expansion for the UAE air force. Its six C-130H-30s are waiting to be replaced by Lockheed C-130J-30s. It should come as no surprise that so much activity on the ­acquisition front could overwhelm the bureaucracy of such a small air force. The service's total manpower requirement is about 4,000 members.

Riad Kahwaji, founder and chief executive officer of the Dubai-based Institute of Near East and Gulf Military Analysis, emphasises the limitations of such a small force. Major acquisition programmes consume thousands of labour hours for negotiations and processing, the lengthy process for completing the largest deals reflects this reality perhaps more than any difficulties at the bargaining table.

IMMINENT DEAL

But Kahwaji agrees with several recent press reports from Paris that a fighter deal is imminent. Unlike some reports predicting a Rafale-only deal, however, Kahwaji says he believes the situation is more complicated. The deal will likely be broken into two pieces, with the UAE air force acquiring both Rafales and more F-16 Block 60s. "The F-16 order is very possible," Kahwaji says. "I would not be surprised a bit."

The UAE already has almost 80 F-16 Block 60s, which feature the Northrop Grumman APG-80 agile beam radar and integrated forward-looking infrared sensor and targeting system. It was not expected to purchase ­additional F-16s, but the price of the Rafales has forced the UAE to consider alternatives to a sole-source buy from Dassault, Kahwaji says. The Block 60 variant of the F-16 is half the price of the Rafale bid, he adds.

Another major programme that could be decided in the near future is the UAE's future airborne early warning (AEW) platform. In 2009 the UAE postponed the decision, leading the air force to purchase two Saab 340 turboprops modified with the Saab Erieye radar as an interim solution.

Industry officials expected the Saab 340 system to serve as a training platform for the air force, allowing it to become more familiar with the AEW mission before committing to a final platform.

Northrop's E-2D Advanced Hawkeye is ­understood to have a slight advantage over the 737-based platform, which includes the Northrop multi-role electronically scanned array radar. An order from the UAE would be a huge coup for the E-2D. Boeing has managed to sell the 737 AEW&C platform to three ­customers - Australia, South Korea and Turkey - without the benefit of a US military customer, but the E-2D has been limited to a single domestic buyer, the US Navy, which has committed to buy 73 aircraft through 2022.

Less clear is the current status of the UAE's jet trainer order. The M-346 was selected in February 2009 to serve as a lead-in trainer, light attack fighter and aerobatic display aircraft. After the aborted press conference nine months later, the negotiations appeared to broaden to Alenia Aermacchi's competitors. Representatives of the Korea Aerospace ­Industries/Lockheed T-50 Golden Eagle confirmed the UAE had re-entered talks with other bidders for the 48-aircraft order.

© Boeing

Boeing is closing in on new AH-64D deals

The UAE's list of requirements for new and upgraded aircraft runs still longer, however. Boeing, for example, hopes to close a deal to replace the UAE's 12 Italian-made CH-47 ­Chinooks - which were acquired from Libya in 2003 - with more CH-47Fs. The company also is expected to complete deals for 60 ­AH-64D Apaches, including 30 remanufactured AH-64As and 30 new models. Another possibility for Boeing in the UAE is a possible order for the AH-6i scout helicopter.

Saudi Arabia's roughly $45 billion yearly military outlay represents the region's largest by roughly a factor of three. But even by the Kingdom's standards, the announcement on 20 October 2010 was breathtaking in scope and scale. The US Defense Security Co-operation Agency (DSCA) notified Congress of a possible weapons sale to the country ­amounting to more than $60 billion. The long-rumoured package, partly ­opposed by Israel, would include the ­acquisition of 84 new ­F-15Es and upgrades for 72 existing aircraft, plus 190 new helicopters, including 72 ­UH-60M Black Hawks, 70 ­AH-64D Apaches, 36 AH-6i Phoenix ­helicopters and 12 MD ­Helicopters MD-530Fs.

But the proposed sales are yet to be ­consummated, leaving industry watchers to speculate about plots of subterfuge.

In reality, the deals are likely at the end of a long queue of acquisition priorities for the Saudis, which start with fielding the last batch of 48 Eurofighter Typhoons from a 72-aircraft deal brokered via the UK government. But the interval has raised questions about Boeing's ability to sustain the F-15 production line in the absence of other commitments. The ­manufacturer is due to deliver the last F-15E currently on order the middle of 2012. To avoid a production break, Boeing may already be internally financing the production of long-lead parts for the expected Saudi order.

The deal would be a breakthrough in terms of adding new military capability to the ­region. The proposed F-15SA configuration includes the Raytheon APG-63(V)3 active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar.

The addition of an AESA sensor, as well as a package including the joint helmet-mounted cueing system and Enhanced Paveway III bombs, had been opposed by Israel, which seeks to maintain a qualitative military edge over an Arab regime with air bases located within a 10min flight at supersonic power of its biggest city.

OBAMA THUMBS-UP

The Obama administration, however, settled the debate with the DSCA announcement on 20 October, indicating its willingness to present the packaged deal to Congress for final approval.

If, however, negotiations with Saudi ­officials falter or break down, the US contractors face an eager set of rivals. The Eurofighter consortium still lists Saudi Arabia on its list of candidates for future Typhoon sales. Russian and European helicopter makers would also be pleased to step in if any of the helicopter deals fall apart.

Since 2009, the Saudi military's acquisition community has been unusually dormant in signing new deals. Only one contract is ­believed to have been signed.

Last October, Sweden announced the sale of a Saab 2000 AEW aircraft with an Erieye radar to an undisclosed customer. It has since been widely reported that Riyadh is the buyer. The Royal Saudi Air Force already operates the more capable Boeing E-3A airborne warning and control system aircraft, but the Saab 2000 will likely be transferred to or operated jointly with Pakistan. Such a transfer would make up for Pakistan's original order for six of the AEW platforms, which was reduced in 2007 to five aircraft.

But the biggest opportunity left unclaimed is a contract to replace a fleet of 30 ageing Lockheed C-130Hs. The candidates include the C-130J, the Airbus Military A400M and the Boeing C-17. Each are hoping for at least a share of the replacement order, with the ­Alenia Aeronautica C-27J and Airbus Military C-295 as low-end alternatives.

Elsewhere in the region, military ­acquisition programmes have largely been overtaken by the so-called "Arab Spring" - a series of bloody uprisings starting in Tunisia and spreading to Bahrain, Egypt and Syria.

Neighbouring governments may not have faced mass protests, but many were forced to scale back or defer weapons purchases to concentrate on popular demands for economic and political reforms. Iraq, for example, has recently completed a deal for 18 F-16C/Ds, but the signed deal represents only half of the originally planned order for 36, and it was delayed by several months as Iraqi authorities diverted funding to domestic welfare programmes. Iraq still remains the most active weapons buyer in the region outside of Saudi Arabia and the UAE. It has been quickly rebuilding what had been the Arab world's strongest air force. The currently envisioned force is still a relatively modest organisation, but is growing. Since 2009, Iraq has signed orders for 15 Hawker Beechcraft T-6A Texan IIs, 27 armed Bell Helicopter 407 light helicopters and six C-130J Hercules transports.

Around the other GCC nations, big opportunities still exist. Kuwait is considering the Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornet and the Rafale, with the same pairing also in competition in Qatar. Oman is reportedly considering a new round of F-16 or Typhoon purchases.

It may be too soon to expect to see much progress on major weapons contracts with the Arab Spring protests still erupting, but the backlog of unfulfilled contracts has never been longer, and there is little doubt another round of contract signings are imminent.

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/in-focus-middle-east-defence-market-keeps-growing-364066/

[VandeWiel]

MacDILL AIR FORCE BASE, Fla. — The Obama administration plans to bolster the American military presence in the Persian Gulf after it withdraws the remaining troops from Iraq this year, according to officials and diplomats. That repositioning could include new combat forces in Kuwait able to respond to a collapse of security in Iraq or a military confrontation with Iran.

The plans, under discussion for months, gained new urgency after President Obama's announcement this month that the last American soldiers would be brought home from Iraq by the end of December. Ending the eight-year war was a central pledge of his presidential campaign, but American military officers and diplomats, as well as officials of several countries in the region, worry that the withdrawal could leave instability or worse in its wake.

After unsuccessfully pressing both the Obama administration and the Iraqi government to permit as many as 20,000 American troops to remain in Iraq beyond 2011, the Pentagon is now drawing up an alternative.

In addition to negotiations over maintaining a ground combat presence in Kuwait, the United States is considering sending more naval warships through international waters in the region.

With an eye on the threat of a belligerent Iran, the administration is also seeking to expand military ties with the six nations in the Gulf Cooperation Council — Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Oman. While the United States has close bilateral military relationships with each, the administration and the military are trying to foster a new "security architecture" for the Persian Gulf that would integrate air and naval patrols and missile defense.

The size of the standby American combat force to be based in Kuwait remains the subject of negotiations, with an answer expected in coming days. Officers at the Central Command headquarters here declined to discuss specifics of the proposals, but it was clear that successful deployment plans from past decades could be incorporated into plans for a post-Iraq footprint in the region.

For example, in the time between the Persian Gulf war in 1991 and the invasion of Iraq in 2003, the United States Army kept at least a combat battalion — and sometimes a full combat brigade —  in Kuwait year-round, along with an enormous arsenal ready to be unpacked should even more troops have been called to the region.

"Back to the future" is how Maj. Gen. Karl R. Horst, Central Command's chief of staff, described planning for a new posture in the Gulf. He said the command was focusing on smaller but highly capable deployments and training partnerships with regional militaries. "We are kind of thinking of going back to the way it was before we had a big 'boots on the ground' presence," General Horst said. "I think it is healthy. I think it is efficient. I think it is practical."

Mr. Obama and his senior national security advisers have sought to reassure allies and answer critics, including many Republicans, that the United States will not abandon its commitments in the Persian Gulf even as it winds down the war in Iraq and looks ahead to doing the same in Afghanistan by the end of 2014.

"We will have a robust continuing presence throughout the region, which is proof of our ongoing commitment to Iraq and to the future of that region, which holds such promise and should be freed from outside interference to continue on a pathway to democracy," Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said in Tajikistan after the president's announcement.

During town-hall-style meetings with military personnel in Asia last week, the secretary of defense, Leon E. Panetta, noted that the United States had 40,000 troops in the region, including 23,000 in Kuwait, though the bulk of those serve as logistical support for the forces in Iraq.

As they undertake this effort, the Pentagon and its Central Command, which oversees operations in the region, have begun a significant rearrangement of American forces, acutely aware of the political and budgetary constraints facing the United States, including at least $450 billion of cuts in military spending over the next decade as part of the agreement to reduce the budget deficit.

Officers at Central Command said that the post-Iraq era required them to seek more efficient ways to deploy forces and maximize cooperation with regional partners. One significant outcome of the coming cuts, officials said, could be a steep decrease in the number of intelligence analysts assigned to the region. At the same time, officers hope to expand security relationships in the region. General Horst said that training exercises were "a sign of commitment to presence, a sign of commitment of resources, and a sign of commitment in building partner capability and partner capacity."

Col. John G. Worman, Central Command's chief for exercises, noted a Persian Gulf milestone: For the first time, he said, the military of Iraq had been invited to participate in a regional exercise in Jordan next year, called Eager Lion 12, built around the threat of guerrilla warfare and terrorism.

At the same time, however, the council sent a mostly Saudi ground force into Bahrain to support that government's suppression of demonstrations this year, despite international criticism.

Despite such concerns, the administration has proposed establishing a stronger, multilateral security alliance with the six nations and the United States. Mr. Panetta and Mrs. Clinton outlined the proposal in an unusual joint meeting with the council on the sidelines of the United Nations in New York last month.

The proposal still requires the approval of the council, whose leaders will meet again in December in the Saudi capital, Riyadh, and the kind of multilateral collaboration that the administration envisions must overcome rivalries among the six nations.

"It's not going to be a NATO tomorrow," said a senior administration official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss diplomatic negotiations still under way, "but the idea is to move to a more integrated effort."

Iran, as it has been for more than three decades, remains the most worrisome threat to many of those nations, as well as to Iraq itself, where it has re-established political, cultural and economic ties, even as it provided covert support for Shiite insurgents who have battled American forces.

"They're worried that the American withdrawal will leave a vacuum, that their being close by will always make anyone think twice before taking any action," Bahrain's foreign minister, Sheik Khalid bin Ahmed al-Khalifa, said in an interview, referring to officials in the Persian Gulf region.

Sheik Khalid was in Washington last week for meetings with the administration and Congress. "There's no doubt it will create a vacuum," he said, "and it may invite regional powers to exert more overt action in Iraq."

He added that the administration's proposal to expand its security relationship with the Persian Gulf nations would not "replace what's going on in Iraq" but was required in the wake of the withdrawal to demonstrate a unified defense in a dangerous region. "Now the game is different," he said. "We'll have to be partners in operations, in issues and in many ways that we should work together."

At home, Iraq has long been a matter of intense dispute. Some foreign policy analysts and Democrats — and a few Republicans — say the United States has remained in Iraq for too long. Others, including many Republicans and military analysts, have criticized Mr. Obama's announcement of a final withdrawal, expressing fear that Iraq remained too weak and unstable.

"The U.S. will have to come to terms with an Iraq that is unable to defend itself for at least a decade," Adam Mausner and Anthony H. Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies wrote after the withdrawal announcement.

Twelve Republican Senators demanded hearings on the administration's ending of negotiations with the Iraqis — for now at least — on the continuation of American training and on counterterrorism efforts in Iraq.

"As you know, the complete withdrawal of our forces from Iraq is likely to be viewed as a strategic victory by our enemies in the Middle East, especially the Iranian regime," the senators wrote Wednesday in a letter to the chairman of the Senate's Armed Services Committee.




http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/30/world/middleeast/united-states-plans-post-iraq-troop-increase-in-persian-gulf.html

[Elzenga]

Invallen in Irak tegen de Kurden. Op het gebied van covert hebben ze echter veel meer ervaring.

De Saudi's zijn ook actief in buurlanden...zoals Jemen. En ik denk dat we verbaasd zullen zijn als we zouden weten waar de Saudi's heimelijk actief zijn in de regio. De Saudi's streven immers naar net zo'n hoofdrol in de Islamitische wereld als Iran...en zien die laatste mede om die reden als concurrent en bedreiging. Alleen omdat de Saudi's als vriend worden gezien is de focus daar minder op gericht. Iran ligt op dat punt onder het vergrootglas.

[VandeWiel]

Zo heel veel meer recente ervaring heeft Iran ook niet na de grote oorlog tegen Irak in 1980-1988. 

Invallen in Irak tegen de Kurden. Op het gebied van covert hebben ze echter veel meer ervaring.

[jurrien visser (JuVi op Twitter)]

Everybody Calm Down

Iran Has Developed a Functioning Railgun, This is Probably Not a Big Deal

Essay Iran military railguns

by Max Eddy | 2:40 pm, October 24th, 2011

According to a report from the FARS News Agency, Iranian scientists have developed a functioning railgun. These weapons, as science fiction fans and defense acquisition nerds will surely know, use electromagnetism instead of combustion to fire projectiles at incredible speed. At such high velocity, the relatively small size of the projectile doesn't matter since force still equals mass times acceleration, meaning that smaller rounds could inflict heavy damage.

In the description from FARS, the Iranian railgun does sound like an achievement. The report says that the weapon can fire 8mm steel rounds at 35 rounds per minute. The device has a reported muzzle velocity of 330 meters per second, and requires a 2 second cool down period after each firing.

With those specifications, the question of how formiddable a weapon this is — or later iterations could be — is an obvious one. I should state first that I am neither an expert on geopolitics, electronics, or weaponry. I am, however, a nerd armed with Wikipedia.

So, let's look at the device as described. Firstly, a muzzle velocity of 330 m/s is not particularly fast. A shotgun used in hunting, for instance, fires at around 500 m/s. With such low speed, this weapon loses most of the benefits of a railgun. Secondly, and more importantly, railguns have pretty massive power requirements. Though the lower velocity probably means lower power requirements, it would still need to be powered by something. This relatively low speed probably places the Iranian device squarely in the realm of proof of concept, far and away from actual military applications.

Unfortunately, reports on the weapon do not answer critical questions on how the Iranian researchers addressed the most difficult aspects of electromagnetic weaponry. Namely, producing and managing the huge amounts of power required to fire the weapon, and the incredible wear on the rail and other components of the weapon upon firing. After all, the precision needed to actually use a railgun usually becomes lost after repeated firings simply given the stresses put on the device. There is also no word in the report if the claim of 35 rounds per minute was a rate achieved and sustained by the weapon, or just a theoretical one based off test firings.

For comparison, a railgun test carried out by the U.S. Navy working with General Atomics in 2008 used 10.64 megajoules to fire a projectile at 2,520 m/s. This particular device is thought to be capable of firing at twice that velocity at a rate of 10 shots per minute, achieving a range of some 200 nautical miles. Another device, also developed for the Navy by BAE systems in 2006, uses 32 megajoules to fire projectiles that could, theoretically, accurately strike targets 220 nautical miles away with little or no warning. It also required some 3 million amps to do it. In a 2009 Popular Mechanics article, this particular railgun is described as potentially being used on an all-electric warship — which even then would need to be moving slowly to have enough power to use the weapon.

These weapons, though still experimental in their own right, are demonstrative of the huge power requirements for advanced railguns. In fact, surely part of the reason why the Navy has shown interest in railguns is because ships are some of the only vehicles that already have the ability to produce anything close to the amount of power necessary to use them. Furthermore, even though the tests have shown that naval railguns are feasible, they still are projected to be some 10 to 15 years away from actually seeing the light of day.

It's worth noting that from a naval perspective, it's hard to see where railguns would fit into the Iranian military strategy. Instead of huge, powerful, advanced ships, Iran has gone another direction with so-called "swarming tactics." This relies on many small, lightly armed boats operating together to take down larger targets than smaller numbers of heavily armed ships.

Not surprisingly, the Iranian report that announces the railgun stresses the defensive capability of the weapon. They describe it as an ideal device for defending fixed locations — such as ammo caches. Without something like a ship to provide power to a railgun, fixed locations actually makes some sense. Given the huge amount of power required for such a device, one wonders if "nuclear power facility" should be added to the list of possible defensive roles for any future versions of the weapon. Especially since Iran has continued to develop its nuclear power potential in the face of continued international scrutiny, fear, and annoyance. However, the use of railguns as stationary defense does seem like an interesting wrinkle on the otherwise offensive development of railguns elsewhere.

The report also mentions that this program, and other expansions of domestic weapon production, came about in response to "compensate for a US weapons embargo." This, combined with previous (and at this point, almost obligatory) statements about the weapon's defensive characteristics and the proof-of-concept nature of the device reveal the program for what it really is: A reminder to the world that Iran really is a power to be reckoned with. With this report, they describe weapons development as a response to foreign intervention, and maintain their espoused non-aggressive stance in the world by calling the device defensive. The document is a statement that Iran is put upon by the world, but that it is not helpless.

If truly and entirely produced within Iran, that is — meaning, within something close to a vacuum from foreign intellectual and engineering assistance — then the experimental device is an achievement. Like their space program, it sends a message to the world and to the Iranian people that the country can fend for itself; whatever other countries can do, Iran can do as well.

In all likelihood, the Iranian railgun may not amount to much in practical terms, but in terms of propaganda and a thorn in the side of the countries it sees itself opposed to, it might add up to something more.

(FARS News Agency via NOSINT, image via A. Davey)

http://www.geekosystem.com/iranian-railgun/

[Elzenga]

"The Saudis are not ready to join a war. They simply do not know how to do it.

Dat lijkt me geen juiste constatering. Saudi-Arabië is actief betrokken geweest bij de Golfoorlog van 1990/1991 en nog steeds actief bij gevechten aan de grens met Jemen als ook de protesten in Bahrein. Zo heel veel meer recente ervaring heeft Iran ook niet na de grote oorlog tegen Irak in 1980-1988. 

[jurrien visser (JuVi op Twitter)]

Saudi Arabia-Iran tensions posing threat to global oil market
Tags: Saudi Shiites, rally in Saudi Arabia, Politics, World, Commentary
Alexander Vatutin Oct 10, 2011 14:41 Moscow Time
Saudi Arabia. © Collage: The Voice of Russia   


Reports on Shiite-led protests in Saudi Arabia have shown that that Arab Spring has reached this traditionally calm oil monarchy.

Since Saudi Arabia is a very conservative state, all information about the events taking place there can be learned only through the country's official media. This time was not an exception either, with a report from the Interior Ministry confirming that fourteen people were injured in the eastern Qatif province in clashes, which were 'incited by a foreign country'. Though the ministry did not elaborate, it is clear that they meant Iran.

Saudi Arabia and Iran have already spent decades fighting for dominance in the Islamic world. Since Iran is a Shiite-run state, Tehran can`t but help its brothers in faith. For example, the radical militant group and political party Hezbollah based in Lebanon enjoys military and financial aid from Iran. Tehran also funds Shiite groups in Syria and Yemen – both countries being on the brink of a civil war now. Saudi Arabia has Sunni Islam as state religion and is very intolerant to all other religions and branches of Islam. Any religious rites breaking the traditions of Wahhabism are strictly banned, not to mention any kinds of protests suppressed in the line with Sharia law.

Trying to predict the consequences of confrontation between Saudi Arabia and Iran, experts rule out the use of force but agree that tensions will continue to grow in the region. Military expert Vladimir Anokhin continues:

"Iran has been seeking leadership in the Islamic world. Meanwhile, this status belongs to Saudi Arabia, which certainly stirs up conflict. However, Iran will hardly let this result in a military campaign because the Saudis are strong enough to attract the entire Arab world to their side in a war against Iran. They can boast a high level of authority, which is exactly what the West expects from them."

Mr. Anokhin thinks that neither Iran nor Saudi Arabia is interested in military confrontation. Otherwise it might affect oil exports, which will be a serious blow to the House of Saud. Apart from this, Mecca and Medina, the holiest places for all Muslims, attract billions into the country's budget each year during the Hajj. As far as Iran is concerned, it risks becoming a rogue state because of its nuclear ambitions. In its recent statements, Riyadh said it was going to seek nukes to have a mechanism of deterrence against Tehran. Saudi Arabia even discussed the issue with Pakistan. One should not forget that security of Saudi Arabia is also guarded by the US and NATO, which will never allow to interrupt oil supplies from the Arabian Peninsula. King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia is not a Mideast leader the West could sacrifice like Hosni Mubarak in Egypt, Muammar Gaddafi in Libya or Bashar Assad in Syria. Expert Sergei Demidenko believes that a part of criticism is the only thing the King of Saudi Arabia might face:

"The Saudis are not ready to join a war. They simply do not know how to do it. Secondly, their responsibility is a matter of concern for the US and NATO. It means that if Iran attempts to escalate tensions further, it will have to deal with the alliance."

However, confrontation between Iran and Saudi Arabia is a question of time. Experts now believe that the ruling dynasty still has a chance to calm riots through stimulating the economy. This is what will always work out. Tensions in Saudi Arabia may undermine stability on the global oil market since the country possess one quarter of the world`s proven oil reserves.

http://english.ruvr.ru/2011/10/10/58461134.html

[jurrien visser (JuVi op Twitter)]

Iran Equips Defense Units with Drone-Detecting Radars

TEHRAN (FNA)- Senior Iranian military commanders announced that the country has equipped its air defense units with advanced radars capable of detecting Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs).

Commander of Khatom ol-Anbia Air Defense Base Brigadier General Farzad Esmayeeli said now Iran can trace and shoot down small UAVs over its airspace.

Brigadier General Farzad Esmaeili also said that air defense units are closely monitoring overflights of foreign aircraft and are fully prepared to detect and shoot down unauthorized UAVs.

In addition, he said previous radar systems have also been upgraded.

His remarks came after Israeli media alleged that the Israeli Air Force has planned to boost its intelligence-gathering capabilities by the end of the year as it moves forward with plans to begin operating the Heron TP, Israel's largest unmanned aerial vehicle, capable of flying as far as Iran.

Asked to comment on the report, General Esmayeeli said, "The Zionist regime talks utter nonsense."

Iran has locally made radar systems with different ranges up to some 1,850 miles (3,000 kilometers).

Last year, Iranian officials announced that the country had reached self-sufficiency in producing radar systems in different frequencies and for various ranges.

Senior Iranian Air Defense officials have also said that Iran's radar systems can detect all flying objects in the entire region, even in the Persian Gulf littoral states.

"In addition to the Southern borders and waters, all Persian Gulf littoral states are under the cover of the radars of the Khatam ol-Anbia Air Defense Base," Commander of the Air Defense Unit of Southeastern Iran General Habibollah Alizadeh told FNA last year.

Referring to the production of radar equipment and instruments inside the country, he said that Iran has gained self-sufficiency in producing radar systems and it is no more dependant on any foreign countries in this ground.

In August, Iran announced that it has successfully tested its home-made long range radar system that is able to cover a range of several thousands kilometers.

The new radar system has the ability to detect objects at a range of several thousand kilometers, Managing-Director of the Electronics Company Sa-Iran Ebrahim Mohammadzadeh told FNA.

He reiterated that the test was successful, and expressed the hope that the new radar system would become operational in the next few years.

Late in June, the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps put into operation a new home-made long-range radar that enables its forces to monitor low-altitude satellites.

Commander of the IRGC Aerospace Force Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh said "the Qadir radar system which covers areas (maximum) 1,100km in distance and 300km in altitude has been designed and built to identify aerial targets, radar-evading aircrafts, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles as well as low-altitude satellites".

In September Commander of the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force (IRIAF) Brigadier General Hassan Shahsafi announced that the country's new radar systems and equipment would soon launch operation.

Also in the same month, Senior Iranian military officials announced that the country is designing a new radar system which is able to counter incoming cruise missiles.

Brigadier General Behrooz Jahedi of Iran's Khatam ol-Anbia Air Base said the low-flying and long range aircraft as well as cruise missiles can be identified and targeted by the radar system.

The new radar system with a range of 3,000 km can cover areas beyond the region, Jahedi said.

Iran has also designed a GPS jammer that can redirect cruise missiles, he added.

Also in September, General Esmayeeli announced that Shalamcheh air defense missiles can trace and intercept Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) at low altitudes.

"Shalamcheh missiles that are guided by the Mersad air defense system have already passed field and operation tests successfully and can destroy low-altitude flying objects such as Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs)," Esmayeeli stated.

Iran has shot down several US drones in recent years.

In July a senior Iranian legislator confirmed earlier reports saying that a US drone had been shot down by Iran over Fordo nuclear enrichment plant in the Central Qom province.

Member of the parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission Ali Aqazadeh Dafsari said that the unmanned spy plane was flying near the Fordo nuclear enrichment plant in Qom province when the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC)'s Air Defense units brought it down.

The official stated that the US drone was on a mission to identify the location of the Fordo nuclear enrichment plant and gather information about the nuclear facility for the CIA.

Earlier this year, a senior Iranian military official had confirmed reports on the shooting down of several enemy drones over the Persian Gulf, and said Iran has targeted a large number of these pilotless planes during the last 7 years.

"We have experienced similar incidents many times in the past and there have even been drones belonging to the occupying Zionist regime (Israel), the United States and Britain which have been shot down in the Persian Gulf during the past 7 years," the senior military official told FNA in January.

Also in January 2007, the Iranian military troops shot down a spy plane of the US army when trying to cross Iran-Iraq borders in the Southwestern city of Dasht-e-Azadegan, Khuzestan province.

http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=9007160172

[jurrien visser (JuVi op Twitter)]

Iran to Unveil New Cruise Missile: Minister

Friday, 7 October 2011

Iran will unveil a new domestically manufactured cruise missile in the near future, Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi has announced.
"During Sacred Defense Week (September 22-29), we unveiled the Qader cruise missile. In the near future, the Zafar cruise missile will be unveiled," Vahidi told the Mehr News Agency on Thursday in response to a question about the latest achievements of the Islamic Republic in missile technology.

"We have more plans on the agenda to design and mass-produce ballistic and cruise missiles," he stated.

On September 28, domestically manufactured Qader missiles were delivered to the Navy and the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps Naval Force.

The Qader cruise missile has a range of 200 kilometers and flies at a low altitude. It has a high destruction power and can target destroyers and battleships.

New fighter jets

On the Defense Ministry's plan to develop fighter jets, Vahidi said Iranian engineers have so far designed and manufactured fighters like the Azarakhsh and the Sa'eqeh, adding that new fighter jets are in the process of being designed and manufactured.

The Sa'eqeh is a single-seater fighter jet. It is the second generation of the Azarakhsh fighter. Sa'eqeh fighter planes were first tested successfully in September 2007. The Sa'eqeh is a joint product of the Iranian Air Force and the Defense Ministry.

On the fact that Russia has failed to deliver S-300 missile systems to Iran, he said, "In our view, the case is still open and the Russian party should honor the agreement."

"But manufacturing indigenized long-range missile systems is on the agenda," he said.

He also said that Russia has reimbursed the advance payment for S-300 missile systems.

Russia signed a deal to deliver five batteries of S-300PMU-1 air defense systems to Iran in 2007 but cancelled the sale in September 2010, claiming the systems, along with a number of other weapons, were covered by the fourth round of UN Security Council sanctions imposed on Iran over its nuclear program.

Friday, 7 October 2011

http://www.turkishweekly.net/news/124706/iran-to-unveil-new-cruise-missile-minister.html

[jurrien visser (JuVi op Twitter)]

Iran bouwt nieuwe straaljager

De Iraanse strijdkrachten krijgen opnieuw materieel uit eigen land. Brigadegeneraal Ahmad Vahidi, de Iraanse minister van Defensie, heeft aangekondigd dat Iran zelf een moderne straaljager gaat bouwen.


De Iraanse luchtmacht gebruikt momenteel al twee jets van eigen bodem, de Saeqeh en de Azarakhsh. Daar wordt nu een derde type aan toegevoegd. Volgens minister Vahidi lijkt de kist op een F-5 en zijn de prestaties van het toestel te vergelijken met die van de F/A-18. Het vliegtuig wordt in dienst genomen als jachtbommenwerper. Volgens minister Vahidi toont de zelfgebouwde straaljager aan dat Iran absoluut geen last heeft van door het Westen ingestelde sancties.

Eerder deze week nam de Iraanse marine een nieuwe, zelfgebouwde onderzeeër in de vaart.

http://www.powned.tv/nieuws/buitenland/2011/10/iran_bouwt_nieuwe_straaljager.html