Spanning(en) rond Iran

Gestart door Lex, 14/02/2012 | 16:51 uur

IPA NG

Citaat van: VandeWiel op 16/02/2012 | 15:19 uur
Report: Attempt on Barak's life foiled in Singapore

Jammer.
Militaire strategie is van groot belang voor een land. Het is de oorzaak van leven of dood; het is de weg naar overleven of vernietiging en moet worden onderzocht. --Sun Tzu

Huzaar1

#30
Citaat van: Poleme op 16/02/2012 | 18:48 uur
Je hoeft je niet af te vragen of er wel of niet oorlog komt.  Die komt er, de enigste vraag die over blijft is wanneer.


Ja, dat vind ik dus echt een veel te oppervlakkige globale uitspraak. Wat bedoel je hiermee?
Dat de hutsi's en te tutsi's een keertje aan t knokken gaan?

Er zal ergens vast wel oorlog komen, maar ik durf je te vertellen dat dit echt niet de komende jaren met Iran gaat gebeuren.
Noem mij eens op wat Iran daaruit zou kunnen slepen behalve naast het totaal ten gronde brengen van haar economie ook nog eens het totaal neerhalen van het land en volk ?


Er liggen ik geloof nu 3 carriers incluis bakvulling in de Perz. Golf... Israel alleen al zou het moeten lukken Iran te vernietigen.
Ze zijn misschien enorm kortzichtig en redelijk benadeeld qua intelligentie in dat land, maar dom zijn ze echt niet.

Even realistisch blijven.
"Going to war without France is like going deer hunting without your accordion" US secmindef - Jed Babbin"

Poleme

Je hoeft je niet af te vragen of er wel of niet oorlog komt.  Die komt er, de enigste vraag die over blijft is wanneer.
Nulla tenaci invia est via - Voor de doorzetter is geen weg onbegaanbaar.

jurrien visser (JuVi op Twitter)

Citaat van: Huzaar1 op 16/02/2012 | 15:38 uur
Er komt geen oorlog, dat weet ik zeker.

Dit is allemaal een spelletje op hoog niveau.

Natuurlijk is het een spel op hoog niveau maar de stelling: er komt geen oorlog, die durf ik (nog) niet aan te gaan, we hebben immers ook een partij (Israel) die zich in haar existentie bedreigd voelt.

Huzaar1

Dit is allemaal grootpraat van vooral Iran.
het laatste wat Iran wilt is oorlog, haar economie gaat echt verschrikkelijk slecht. De groene "revolutie" gaf dit al genoeg aan 2 jaar geleden.
Was gisteren op BNR nog een heel praatprogramma over.

Iran wil de boycot die in juli dit jaar ingaat echt niet op haar dak krijgen, daarmee voert het nu de druk hoog op om uiteindelijk een deal te kunnen sluiten de olieboycot van juli niet door te laten gaan.

Een sterk Iran had op de aangekondigde boycot gereageerd door simpelweg de boycot zelf al meteen in te stellen.
Er komt geen oorlog, dat weet ik zeker.

Dit is allemaal een spelletje op hoog niveau.
"Going to war without France is like going deer hunting without your accordion" US secmindef - Jed Babbin"

jurrien visser (JuVi op Twitter)

Citaat van: VandeWiel op 16/02/2012 | 15:19 uur
Auws, kun je voorstellen wat er gebeurt als het je lukt een minister van defensie om te leggen?! 

:omg:


Ik vraag me af of Israel wel zijn geduld kan bewaren tot het voorjaar...

Of hebben we sneller dan verwacht Breaking news op CNN?

VandeWiel

Auws, kun je voorstellen wat er gebeurt als het je lukt een minister van defensie om te leggen?! 

:omg:


Report: Attempt on Barak's life foiled in Singapore
Kuwait's Al-Jarida newspaper claims Israel was able to prevent assassination attempt on defense minister during his recent visit to Singapore


Kuwait's Al-Jarida newspaper reported Thursday that Israel was able to prevent an assassination attempt on Defense Minister Ehud Barak, during his visit to Singapore this week.

According to the report, the Mossad – collaborating with local authorities – was able to stop the assassins, who planned on targeting Barak during his visit to the Singapore Air Show.

The newspaper based its report on information from "high ranking Israeli defense officials."

Al-Jarida went on to quote the sources as saying that prior to Barak's visit, the Israeli intelligence agency contacts Singapore authorities and gave them "highly classified information suggesting a cell comprising of Iranian and Hezbollah operatives were planning to assassinate the Israeli defense minister."

A covert operation based on the information resulted in the arrest of three suspects.

The paper added that the cell had "very accurate information" about Barak's itinerary and planned to have him under surveillance during his stay in Singapore. The assassination was to take place in Barak's hotel.

According to the report, the Mossad is taking an active part in the suspect's interrogation.


http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4190665,00.html

jurrien visser (JuVi op Twitter)

Israëli's doelwit aanslag Bangkok
»
Man zwaargewond bij explosie in Bangkok
AFP Toegevoegd: donderdag 16 feb 2012, 06:23

De Iraniërs die zijn gearresteerd na een aantal explosies in de Thaise hoofdstad Bangkok waren van plan daar Israëlische diplomaten op te blazen. Dat heeft het hoofd van de Thaise politie, generaal Prewpan Dhamapong, bevestigd in een televisieprogramma.

De Iraniërs wilden individuele diplomaten opblazen met 'kleefbommen' die identiek waren aan bommen die waren gebruikt bij aanslagen in India en Georgië. De actie in Bangkok mislukte doordat enkele bommen voortijdig explodeerden en het huis van de Iraniërs verwoestten.

De drie mannen vluchtten, maar een van hen raakte zwaar gewond toen hij op de vlucht een bom naar een politieman wilde gooien. De bom gleed uit zijn hand en explodeerde voor zijn eigen voeten. De twee anderen werden later gearresteerd toen zij probeerden naar Teheran te vliegen.

Iran ontkent elke betrokkenheid bij de aanslag in Bangkok en wijst Israël als dader aan.

Bron: NOS

VandeWiel

Lol, ik zat er voor deze keer niet ver naast vwb de "grootse" aankondiging van Iran  ;)



Ahmadinejad loads nuclear fuel rods into reactor

By REUTERS02/15/2012 15:07


Iranian president loads 20% enriched rods to show "Iranian scientists' achievement."

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad loaded nuclear fuel rods into the Tehran Research Reactor on Wednesday, state TV reported.

"The president loaded 20 percent enriched rods into the Tehran Reactor... it is a sign of Iranian scientists' achievements," said state TV, which broadcast the ceremony live.

The country is also set to unveil a new generation of its domestically made uranium enrichment centrifuges. "The fourth generation of domestically made centrifuges have higher speed and production capacity... it will be unveiled on Wednesday," state TV said.

The moves appeared designed to show that increased sanctions are failing to halt Iran's technical progress and to strengthen its hand in any renewed negotiations with the major powers.

Diplomats believe Iran has in the past overstated its nuclear achievements to gain leverage in its standoff with Western powers, which suspect Iran is seeking to develop the means to make atom bombs, a charge the country denies.

Ahmadinejad said on Saturday Iran would soon announce new advances in its nuclear program.

"Fuel elements, for the first time created by Iranian scientists, will in the presence of the president ... be loaded into the Tehran research reactor," Bagheri, deputy secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, was quoted as saying.

Mark Hibbs, a nuclear expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said he did not believe the Iranian announcement signaled any mass production of nuclear fuel.

"We are talking about laboratory-scale production of a single element for the reactor," he said.

Spent fuel can be reprocessed to make plutonium, potential bomb material, but Western worries about Iran's nuclear program are focused on its enrichment of uranium, which can also provide the core of nuclear weapons if refined much more.

Western powers fear that Iran's uranium enrichment program is part of a covert bid to develop the means to build atomic weapons - suspicions that were given independent weight by a detailed UN nuclear watchdog report late last year.


http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=257909

ARM-WAP

Citaat van: Lex op 15/02/2012 | 13:35 uur
Iran staakt olie-export Nederland
Het olieboycot geldt voor Nederland Spanje, Italië, Frankrijk, Griekenland en Portugal. wo 15 feb 2012, 13:27
Ik veronderstel dat dit dan de enige EU landen zijn die Iraanse olie kopen?

VandeWiel

Iran trumpets atom advances, deepening standoff with West

Iran trumpeted advances in nuclear technology on Wednesday, citing new uranium enrichment centrifuges and domestically made reactor fuel, in a move abetting a drift towards confrontation with the West over its disputed atomic ambitions.

The announcement underlined Iranian determination to pursue a nuclear program its Islamic clerical rulers see as a pillar of power, protection and prestige despite Western sanctions that are inflicting increasing damage on Iran's oil-based economy.

Iran has been resorting to barter to import basic staples as sanctions, imposed over its pursuit of nuclear activity seen in the West as geared to developing atomic bombs, have spread to block its oil exports and central bank financing of trade.

Tehran has for some years been developing and testing new generations of centrifuges to replace an outdated, breakdown-prone model. In January it said it had successfully manufactured and tested its own fuel rods for use in nuclear power plants.

The aim of its announcements on Wednesday was to show that international sanctions are failing to stop it making progress in nuclear know-how despite trade embargoes and to strengthen its hand in any renewed negotiations with six world powers.

"The fourth generation of domestically made centrifuges have a higher speed and production capacity ... It will be unveiled on Wednesday," state television said, without giving a source.

It was the latest display of Iran thumbing its nose at a series of U.N. resolutions demanding that it suspend uranium enrichment and open up to U.N. nuclear inspectors.

Last year, Iran installed two newer models for large scale testing at a research site near the central town of Natanz. But it remains unclear whether Tehran, subject to increasingly strict trade sanctions, has the means and components to make the more sophisticated machines in industrial quantity.

If Iran eventually succeeded in introducing modern centrifuges for production, it could significantly shorten the time needed to stockpile enriched uranium, which can generate electricity or, if refined much more, nuclear explosions.

Tehran has worked for several years to perfect faster, more reliable centrifuge machines than the 1970s-vintage P-1 model it now uses to refine uranium.

Western analysts were skeptical of the proclaimed advances.

"We have seen this before. We have seen these announcements and these grand unveilings and it turns out that there was less there than meets the eye. I suspect this is the same case," said Shannon Kile at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

NO CHANGE OF COURSE

The United States and Israel have not ruled out military action if diplomacy and sanctions are ultimately judged futile in reining in Tehran's nuclear activity.

Iran has threatened retaliation for any attack or effective ban on its oil exports, suggesting it could seal off the main Gulf export shipping channel, the Strait of Hormuz, used by a third of the world's crude oil tankers.

Iranian officials have refused to negotiate curbs on the program, saying it aims solely to produce electricity for booming domestic demand in OPEC's No. 2 oil-exporting state.

A senior Iranian official said Iran would load domestically made nuclear fuel rods into its Tehran Research Reactor on Wednesday for the first time to keep it running.

"The first home-made nuclear fuel rods will be loaded in the Tehran Nuclear Research Reactor in the presence of the president," Ali Baqeri, deputy head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, told ISNA.

The Tehran reactor produces radio-isotopes for use in medical treatments and agriculture.

Iran says it was forced to manufacture its own fuel for the Tehran reactor after failing to agree terms for a deal to obtain it from the West to replenish imported Argentinian stocks that will run out in the near future.

In 2010, Iran alarmed the West by starting to enrich uranium to a fissile purity of 20 percent for the stated purpose of conversion into special fuel for the Tehran reactor.

In boosting enrichment up from the 3.5 percent level suitable for powering civilian nuclear plants, Iran moved significantly closer to the 90 percent threshold suitable for the fissile core of a nuclear warhead.

"Another achievement to be unveiled today is the inauguration of a project of producing 20 percent enriched uranium at the Natanz facility, as well as producing 20 percent fuel plates," state television said.

Analysts remained doubtful that Iran would be able to operate the research reactor with its own special fuel.

"As usual, the announcement surely is exaggerated.

Producing the fuel plates ... is not so hard. But the plates have to be tested for a considerable period before they can be used safely in the reactor," said Mark Fitzpatrick of London's International Institute for Strategic Studies.

"If Iran is really running the reactor with untested fuel plates, then my advice to the residents surrounding the building would be to move somewhere else. It will he unsafe."

Spent fuel can be reprocessed into plutonium, the alternative key ingredient in atomic bombs. But Western worries about Iran's nuclear program have focused on its enrichment program, which has accumulated enough material for up to several bombs, in the view of nuclear proliferation experts.

Analysts say the fuel rod development itself will not put Iran any closer to producing nuclear weapons, but could be a way of telling Tehran's adversaries that time is running out if they want to find a negotiated solution to the dispute.

The most recent talks between world powers and Iran failed in January 2011 because of Tehran's unwillingness to discuss transparent limits on enrichment, as demanded by several U.N. Security Council resolutions passed since 2006.

But Iran said recently it is ready to hold fresh talks with no preconditions. "We will also a reply to the EU's foreign policy chief (about nuclear talks) today," Baqeri said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/15/us-iran-idUSTRE81E0RF20120215

Lex

Iran staakt olie-export Nederland

TEHERAN -  Iran stopt met het leveren van olie aan zes Europese landen, waaronder Nederland. Dat heeft de Iraanse staatstelevisie woensdag bekendgemaakt. Het boycot is een reactie op de verscherpte sancties die onlangs door de EU zijn opgelegd vanwege het Iraanse atoomprogramma.

Het olieboycot geldt behalve voor Nederland ook voor Spanje, Italië, Frankrijk, Griekenland en Portugal. De ambassadeurs van Nederland en de overige vijf Europese landen werden eerder vandaag door het Iraanse ministerie van Buitenlandse Zaken op het matje geroepen vanwege de EU-sancties.

Telegraaf,
wo 15 feb 2012, 13:27

IPA NG

Die vertalingsfout is wel hardnekkig zeg.
Militaire strategie is van groot belang voor een land. Het is de oorzaak van leven of dood; het is de weg naar overleven of vernietiging en moet worden onderzocht. --Sun Tzu

jurrien visser (JuVi op Twitter)

What Israel can do about Iran

George Jonas, National Post · Feb. 15, 2012 | Last Updated: Feb. 15, 2012 2:13 AM ET

Israel has a dilemma ... I'll start this again. Israel has several dilemmas, but a big one is that a neighbour, Iran, not next door but close enough, has repeatedly announced it wishes to wipe "the Zionist entity" off the map.

The Islamic theocracy's founding ayatollah, Ruhollah Khomeini, said it first, echoed by successive leaders, including current president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Iran's mullahs have tried to make their threats credible by major efforts to develop and/or buy nuclear technology and weapon delivery systems.

Faced with this, what are Israel's - or any target country's - options?

Well, Israel could say: Oh, that's just talk. They don't mean it.

Reckless, though, isn't it? What if they do? Fanatics often mean what they say.

Israel could say: Oh, that's just wishful thinking. They can't do it.

But what if they can? Iran has enough brain power to develop the technology, plus oil revenue to buy anything it can't develop. Israel could say: The world wouldn't let them wipe us off the map.

Wouldn't it, though? History is a tale of one power wiping another off the map. Even if the world interferes, which it seldom does, it's usually too late. Bad guys may be punished but maps stay wiped.

Israel could say, hell, it isn't as if we were defenceless. If the mullahs attack, we can give as good as we get. If they wipe us out, we wipe them out ten-fold.

But what if the mullahs don't give a damn? Mutually assured destruction is a deterrent only against a rational enemy that wishes to survive; an irrational enemy who can hardly wait to collect his heavenly reward won't be deterred, at least not reliably. M.A.D., an adequate defence against evildoers, is useless against maniacs.

Israel can slow down a threat by skirmishing around the edges. It can explore peripheral actions such as sabotage, espionage, targeted assassination and so on, to discourage, turn or incapacitate enemy assets. Noodling around the fringes to gain time while searching for a political solution can be helpful, although it can also aggravate some situations. In any event, it's unlikely to be decisive.

Israel could - maybe - launch a preemptive attack and destroy its foe before it can build enough muscle to do it to Israel. This works if it works, and everyone expects Israel or the United States to try it, and indeed they might. The problem with pre-emptive strikes - well, there are several problems. One is that the enemy's capacity to retaliate must be substantially - or better still, completely - eliminated. If it isn't, a preemptive strike becomes just the first act of M.A.D., which is a totally different scenario.

The second problem is that the reduction in the foe's retaliatory capacity needs to be not only complete but surgical - that is, you can't just nuke the enemy back into the Pleistocene, civilians and all. To do so would turn a military victory into a political disaster. A successful preemptive strike in the 21st century must be fatal militarily, as well as neat around the edges, uncluttered by civilian debris.

This being an impossibly tall order, chances are Israel isn't going to attempt it. The Jewish state may have the technology to defeat Iran, but not to surgically incapacitate it. The United States probably does, but predicting what the United States might do, especially in an election year, is something I won't undertake.

This doesn't leave Israel with too many choices. One gambit analyzed last week in The New York Times was an ingenuous end run around the nuclear mullahs in what the author calls "Iran's Achilles heel," Syria. Efraim Halevy, a British-born Israeli who headed the Mossad between 19982002, argues (in essence, rather than in so many words) that tackling Iran inside Iran would be a mistake second only to doing nothing and hoping for the best.

As a canny player of the Great Game, Halevy sees Iran most vulnerable in its former playpen, Syria, currently an armed camp masquerading as a country. Early in the Arab spring, so-called, Syria's inmates (and even some guards) have risen up against the camp commandant, Bashir al-Assad. "Iran is intent on assuring its hold over the country regardless of what happens to Mr. Assad," Halevy writes, "and Israel and the West must prevent this at all costs."

The former spy chief points out that the crucial question isn't whether or not Assad falls in Syria, but whether or not Iran remains standing. Iran's hegemony over Syria surviving the Assad-regime, as Halevy puts it, "would rob Mr. Assad's departure of any significance."

I wrote a year ago that until we know who replaces whom we know nothing. I've only contemplated pieces on the chessboard, but Halevy moves them. Cutting off Iran's access to its proxies in Lebanon (Hezbollah) and in Gaza (Hamas) is a way of "possibly forcing a hemorrhaging regime in Tehran to suspend its nuclear policies." No muss, no fuss, no need to nuke anyone. May be too good to be true, but hey ... If the Persian winter is here, can the Arab spring be far behind?

http://www.nationalpost.com/life/What+Israel+about+Iran/6154199/story.html

jurrien visser (JuVi op Twitter)

'Israëlische aanval op Iran vergt uiterst complexe en geraffineerde operatie'

15 feb 2012

Een Israëlische aanval op Iran vergt een uiterst complexe militaire operatie, waarbij talloze vliegtuigen het Iraanse luchtruim moeten penetreren om tegelijkertijd een dozijn doelwitten te treffen. Dat zegt Charles Wald, een generaal op rust van de Amerikaanse Air Force, die de coalitie leidde die de Taliban uit Afghanistan verdreef na de aanslagen van 11 september 2001.

Wald spreekt in USA Today van een 'complexe en geraffineerde aanval'. Toen Israël in 2007 Syrië aanviel hoefde slechts één bovengronds object te worden geraakt. Daarenboven had het aangevallen land had weinig capaciteit om zich te verdedigen tegen luchtartillerie.

Iran kan dat wel. De nucleaire productie is verspreid over verschillende sites dwars doorheen het land. Enkele locaties zijn zo beschut en beschermd dat ze een bominslag kunnen weerstaan. Vijandelijke vliegtuigen zullen vanuit Iran onmiddellijk worden bestookt door raketten. Wald waarschuwt er ook voor dat Iran vanuit het buitenland een tegenaanval in kan zetten. Bijvoorbeeld via Hamas in Gaza en Hezbollah in Libanon. 

Een bijkomend probleem vormen tussenlandingen die de Israëlische piloten zouden moeten maken om bij te tanken. Het is weinig waarschijnlijk dat naburige landen bereid zou zijn Israëlische gevechtsvliegtuigen op hun grondgebied te dulden. De kortste weg naar Iran loopt via Irak, maar dat land kan sinds het vertrek van de Amerikanen niet langer zijn luchtruim beschermen. Een geheime landingsplaats in de woestijn is een mogelijke optie. De gevechtsvliegtuigen zouden ook moeten worden begeleid door andere vliegtuigen die radars kunnen neutralizeren.

Toch heeft Israël kans van slagen. "De Israëliërs zijn zeer creatief. Niemand weet precies hoe ze het zullen aanpakken",  zegt de voormalige Pentagon-medewerker Colin Kahl.

http://www.express.be/joker/nl/brainflame/israelische-aanval-op-iran-vergt-uiterst-complexe-en-geraffinneerde-operatie/161973.htm