De toekomst van de Arctische regio

Gestart door Lex, 01/07/2011 | 17:27 uur

jurrien visser (JuVi op Twitter)

Is Vladimir Putin Coming for the North Pole Next?

While international cooperation is cooling down, the race for control over international waters may be heating up.

By Marina Koren
March 27, 2014

Crimea wasn't the only territory Russia claimed as its own this month.

Just three days before Russian President Vladimir Putin announced his plan to annex Ukraine's peninsula, a U.N. commission gave him sovereignty over the Sea of Okhotsk, located off Russia's southeastern coast near Japan. Those waters, it was decided, are part of Russia's continental shelf.

Russia's Environment Minister Sergey Donskoy called the 20,000 square miles of once-international waters a "real Ali Baba's cave" because of its natural-resource reserves. "It took Russia many years to achieve this success," he said, logic that rings true for the acquisition of Crimea.

But Russia's appetite for territory does not end at its southern shores. The country is hungry for more control over the top of the globe, and has been for a long time.

Five countries stretch into the region called the Arctic: Russia, Canada, and the United States, by way of Alaska; and Norway and Denmark, through Greenland. No country has yet laid full claim to the entire region, which includes the North Pole and is home to 15 percent of the world's oil, a third of its undiscovered natural gas, and, depending on your age, Santa Claus. But several nations have tried to extend their sovereignty there, which requires proving that their continental shelves extend more than 230 miles into the Arctic Ocean. (For a visual of who currently owns what, check out this map from The New York Times.)

The Arctic is not a lawless free-for-all, however. The five nations, along with Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden, are members of the Arctic Council, an intergovernmental forum created in 1996 to facilitate cooperation among Arctic states, as well as communities indigenous to the area. The council is far from a military or economic alliance. Focused on subjects like environmental protection, pollution, trade routes, and fisheries, the group prides itself on keeping political and military issues out of the discussion.

This week, the council is meeting in Yellowknife, the capital city of Canada's Northwest Territories. Russia, already cut out of other international summits, is in attendance. Arctic Council Chairwoman Leona Aglukkaq, who represents Canada, said Tuesday that barring Russia from this week's summit "serves no constructive purpose." But the Canadian government is keeping a close eye on what the Russians say there, she said.

It appears the northern part of the globe can't ignore the southern tensions forever.

Thanks to global warming, the Arctic has become a hot spot for economic development in recent years. The more sea ice melts away, the more water there is for cargo ships to cross and for rigs to drill into to reach vast untapped natural gas and oil reserves. Last year, China, India, Italy, Japan, and South Korea, as well as the European Union, Greenpeace, and the International Association of Oil and Gas Producers, all applied for a seat at the Arctic Council.

The race for the Arctic is quietly underway, and Russia seems to be winning so far. This is especially troubling for the rest of the North Pole. The region is already locked in what's known as a security dilemma, explains Kristian Atland, a senior research fellow at the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment. World powers have a tendency to assume the worst about their neighbors, and any measure taken by one nation to increase its sovereignty or security could be perceived by another as a threat. It also doesn't help that all of Russia's Arctic neighbors are NATO members.

If the other Arctic states have learned something from the Ukraine crisis, it's that the Russians will protect what they feel is rightfully theirs.

Russian territory accounts for about half of the Arctic region, but there's a lot more to the country's lead in the game than size. In 2001, Moscow sent the first-ever territorial claim for the North Pole to the U.N. Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf, which defines nations' rights in the world's oceans. The commission told Russia that it needed more scientific evidence that the Arctic shelf is part of the country's landmass, and a decision has not yet been made.

Russia has previously employed a fairly friendly polar policy, The Guardian's Luke Harding explains. Under Dmitry Medvedev, Moscow resolved a territorial dispute with Norway and worked out policy issues with other Arctic powers, but "Putin's Arctic rhetoric has been hawkish." Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper has also been known to turn up the rhetoric on his country's right to the Arctic, but he's not the one who just annexed another country's territory.

Moscow's tough foreign policy has also leaked into research interests in the region. During the International Polar Year program in 2007—an international effort to explore the polar regions—Russia isolated itself from other participants. When Russian explorers reached the North Pole's seabed that summer, a first in history, they stuck a Russian flag in it, staking a claim in an arctic ridge that Canada and Denmark have also said is theirs. Russia also denied logistical support to a French expedition, which prevented its crew from leaving the Siberian port of Tiksi for two weeks.

Two years later, Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev claimed that "the United States, Denmark, Norway, and Canada are conducting a common and coordinated policy to deny Russia access to the riches of the [Arctic] shelf." So much for teamwork.

If there's another thing the Arctic states have learned from the Ukraine crisis, it's that Moscow will risk political isolation to preserve its domestic influence. The Russian president said he sent troops into Crimea to protect its ethnic Russians from Ukrainian opposition forces. In reality, the crisis had created the pretext Moscow needed to take back former Soviet territory. When Canada, Russia's Arctic rival, announced in December that it plans to submit its own claim for additional Arctic territory, including the North Pole, Putin responded immediately. The next day, Putin ordered an increased military presence in the region, including troops and infrastructure.

Russia lost some of its Arctic power after the Cold War, when the region served as a nuclear battlefront. Now, Russia plans to restore abandoned Soviet-era airfields in the Arctic and turn the region into a strategic natural-resource base by 2020. The country's naval presence there is already greater than it was in the 1990s. And as we learned from Moscow's protection of the Black Sea Fleet base in Crimea, maritime power is key.

Other nations, including Canada and the U.S., are beefing up their military footprints there, but not at the same rate as the Russians. The U.S. has not yet ratified the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea, which means it is eligible to file official territorial claims in the Arctic. But American lawmakers with a stake in the region, such as Sen. Mark Begich, D-Alaska, are worried about the White House standing by, The Hill reports. "When I first arrived in the Senate five years ago, I got a lot of puzzled looks when I mentioned the Arctic," Begich said last week. "With unpleasant reminders of the Cold War and the vast potential for resource development in the region, a military presence is more important than ever."

Begich has introduced legislation for an increased U.S. Coast Guard presence in the polar region.

Arctic Council members take turns chairing the organization every two years, and the U.S. is up in 2015. Canada, the current chair, has used the last two years to push for more control over the area. The Ukraine crisis gives Canada some more wiggle room in the coming months, and the U.S. could follow its lead once it takes over the leadership. The Arctic Council may have welcomed Russia this week, but the country's position in multilateral organizations is on thin ice. Pushing Moscow out of the council, however, would destabilize the entire region. Without Russia, Arctic cooperation, whether on fishing practices or military bases, can't exist.

Still, it will be years, perhaps even decades, before chunks of the Arctic Ocean are divvied up among world powers. While melting ice is paving the way for economic opportunities, the Arctic remains largely a symbol of national pride for the nations that exist inside its sphere, including Russia. In December, Putin said militarizing the Arctic is crucial to protecting the country's "national and strategic interests."

Sound familiar?

http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/is-vladimir-putin-coming-for-the-north-pole-next-20140327

Harald

Rusland bouwt gestaag zijn aanwezigheid op in het Noordpool gebied en het is een kwestie van tijd als ze lijnen gaan trekken en zeggen dat het gebied al jaren bewoond wordt door Russen en dat door hun aanwezigheid zij het "eerste recht" hebben.
En in die tussentijd onderzoeken ze waar de beste plekken zijn waar olie, gas, metalen, mineralen gewonnen kunnen worden.

Waarschijnlijk krijg je een soortgelijke situatie als van de Oekraïne. Het Westen kan/wil geen vuist maken is verdeeld over de te bewandelen weg en komt niet verder dan met de vinger "straffend" heen en weer de zwaaien en met sancties te dreigen. De US stuurt een carrier naar de Noordpool.
En het uiteindelijke resultaat is dat Rusland weer een stuk groter is geworden en een deel van de Noordpool geannexeerd heeft.   

En gelijktijdig controle heeft over de noordelijke zeeroute, deze is zeer aantrekkelijk. "normale" huidige zeeroute via middellandse zee, Suezkanaal is ongeveer 48 dagen naar China, met de Noordelijke zeeroute is dat ca. 35 dagen. Nu is de Noordelijke zeeroute nog niet lang open en bevaarbaar maar over 10 jaar met de opwarming van de aarde, warmer zeewater, zal de Noordelijke zeeroute steeds beter en langer bevaarbaar zijn en hierdoor belangrijker worden.



jurrien visser (JuVi op Twitter)

24 March 2014

Russia to beef up its Arctic Force

Russia is planning to build up its special troops in the Arctic to be better prepared for possible security threats from the north.

For more than half a century, the Arctic ice cap has been regarded by the military as a potential theater of war. Nuclear-capable missile-carrying submarines have been secretly patrolling the Arctic seas during and after the "Cold War". That's where a key threat comes from, Mikhail Khodaryonok, editor-in-chief of the Military-Industrial Messenger newspaper, told the Voice of Russia.

"As Arctic ice packs melt due to the continuing global warming, more ice-free areas emerge, which might serve as convenient launch spots for ballistic missile attacks. It's one of the main threats to Russia. A surprise disarming strike involving ballistic nuclear missiles and cruise missiles might potentially come from the Arctic," he said.

The Defense Ministry is planning to build new warships, including ice-breaking ones, and create a specialized coastal taskforce. The Soviet-era Arctic infrastructure will be restored.

"The Arctic airfields are the first to be restored. These are the Rogachyovo, Alykel, Tiksi, Khatanga, Nadym and many others. Airfields are crucial to ensuring the fast deployment of forces. They can also be used as bases for anti-submarine aviation and flying radars and as command headquarters," Khodaryonok said.

The Arctic holds an estimated one-quarter of the global energy resources. Some experts predict armed conflicts in the Arctic in the coming decades. Others are skeptical.

"Such statements will always be made. One should take them calmly. There isn't going to be any war or any armed clashes in the Arctic in the near future. Rather, it's an information war, which has been gaining momentum lately, a kind of 'Cold War'," said Sergei Melkov, Co-chairman of the Association of Military Analysts.

As Russia moves to beef up its Arctic Force, it risks facing new accusations from the West that it militarizes the Arctic. But, as Mikhail Khodaryonok pointed out, that's what all the Arctic nations have been doing to some extent.

Read more: http://voiceofrussia.com/2014_03_24/Russia-to-beef-up-its-Arctic-Force-9231/

jurrien visser (JuVi op Twitter)

Russia to Establish Arctic Military Command

By the end of this year, Russia will establish the Northern Fleet-Unified Strategic Command.

By Zachary Keck / February 21, 2014

Russia will establish a new strategic military command in the Arctic by the end of the year, according to local news reports.

RIA Novosti, citing a high ranking official in Russia's General Staff, said the new force would be called the Northern Fleet-Unified Strategic Command. The news agency quoted the source as saying: "The new command will comprise the Northern Fleet, Arctic warfare brigades, air force and air defense units as well as additional administrative structures."

The report went on to say that the Northern Fleet-Unified Strategic Command "will be responsible for protecting Russia's Arctic shipping and fishing, oil and gas fields on the Arctic shelf, and the country's national borders in the north."

Russian President Vladimir Putin has made boosting Russia's military presence in the Arctic an important priority during his third term in office. At a meeting of the Russian Defense Ministry Board last December, Putin said: "I request that you pay special attention to the deployment of infrastructure and military units in the Arctic."

Other Russian officials have said that Moscow will reopen at least seven airfields as well as a number of ports on the New Siberian Islands and the Franz Josef Land archipelago in the Arctic. Moscow has also begun enhancing its aerospace defense and early warning radars in the Arctic region. Last November the commander of Russia's Aerospace Defense Command stated: "The expansion of [missile early warning] radar coverage is one of the key areas of our work, especially when it comes to [Russia's] extreme north – we have already started the deployment of electronic warfare units in the Arctic."

The Russian Navy has also made boosting its presence in the Arctic a key priority for 2014. In December of last year RIA Novosti paraphrased a Russian military spokesperson as saying that in 2014 "The Northern Fleet will conduct sailing and diving expeditions in the Arctic and develop a series of ice-class patrol ships to protect the country's interest in the region."

The Northern Fleet-Unified Strategic Command is aimed at bringing the disparate efforts of Russia's different military services—as well as its coast guard presumably—together in a coherent manner.

The melting of the Arctic ice has opened up vast energy reserves and will create new strategic shipping routes that will have huge implications for geopolitics in the coming years. For example, the new shipping lanes produced by the melting of the ice will greatly reduce the distance between Asia and Europe as well as Asia and North American states like Canada and the United States.

As a result, there has been something of a scramble among Arctic countries and their neighbors to assert claims over the Arctic region. As my colleague Shannon reported earlier today, China has been re-asserting its interests in the Arctic region this week following America's decision to appoint an ambassador to the Arctic last week.

With the possible exception of Canada, no country has the potential to benefit more from the warming of the Arctic than Russia, which has the largest Arctic border of any country in the world. Moscow has long coveted a warm water port, which was an important consideration behind its invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. A warmer Arctic will allow Russia to connect its Northern and Pacific Naval fleets for the first time. Russia also considers its exclusive control over the Northern Sea Route connecting Asia and Europe to be a "core national interest." The U.S., among others, considers the NSR to be an international shipping lane.

The opening of the Arctic will also greatly improve Russia's ability to export energy resources to Northeast Asian nations, especially South Korea and Japan. Moscow has been actively taking steps internally to build the necessary infrastructure to connect future Arctic ports to energy fields inside Russia.

http://thediplomat.com/2014/02/russia-to-establish-arctic-military-command/

Zeewier

#104
Citaat van: Mourning op 27/01/2014 | 11:32 uur
Dat zal best, maar de Russen zullen toch ook echt een flink aantal schepen moeten gaan vervangen. En uitbouwen EN grootschalig vervangen... ik moet het nog even zien, ook bij de Russen. Zeker omdat dit eigenlijk krijgsmachtbreed voor hen opgaat (btw. wij schuiven als Nederland ook ondertussen ook langzamerhand die richting uit door het continue uitstelling van updates, upgrades en replacements).
Daar heb je gelijk in. De Russen doen ons voorkomen dat ze hun vloot met 40 platformen uitbouwen. Dat is het halve verhaal. In werkelijkheid is, bezijden de Kirov klasse, wat ze hebben oud en amper van updates voorzien. De 2 Neustrashimyy klasse en de eerste van zijn klasse de Admiral Gorshkov komen als geroepen.

jurrien visser (JuVi op Twitter)

Citaat van: Mourning op 27/01/2014 | 11:32 uur
(btw. wij schuiven als Nederland ook ondertussen ook langzamerhand die richting uit door het continue uitstelling van updates, upgrades en replacements).

Helaas waar, iets wat het volgende decennia meer dan duidelijk gaat worden als de KM een belangrijk deel van haar vloot moet vervangen.

Mourning

Dat zal best, maar de Russen zullen toch ook echt een flink aantal schepen moeten gaan vervangen. En uitbouwen EN grootschalig vervangen... ik moet het nog even zien, ook bij de Russen. Zeker omdat dit eigenlijk krijgsmachtbreed voor hen opgaat (btw. wij schuiven als Nederland ook ondertussen ook langzamerhand die richting uit door het continue uitstelling van updates, upgrades en replacements).
"The only thing necessary for Evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing"- Edmund Burke
"War is the continuation of politics by all other means", Carl von Clausewitz, Vom Kriege/On War (1830).

jurrien visser (JuVi op Twitter)

Citaat van: Mourning op 27/01/2014 | 10:53 uur
de verhouding 283 vs 208 doet geen recht aan de absolute overmacht van de USN. Je hoeft alleen maar te kijken naar hoeveel onderhand bijna antieke schepen de Russen nog in hun inventaris hebben, de supercarriers van de USN, de AEGIS-platformen, etc.

Dan  kunnen de Russen wel het een en ander bouwen, maar ze komen nog niet in de verste verte in de buurt van Amerikaanse Marine. Kan ze die laatste pijn doen en proberen de Amerikanen een veel groter aantal regionen af te dekken? Ja, uiteraard, maar dat is een ander verhaal.

Natuurlijk is de Russische marine geen match voor de USN, maar het verschil is: US is aan het afbouwen en de Russen doen  het tegenover gestelde.. de vraag is: hoe zijn de verhoudingen over 1 á 2 decennia?

Wat wordt de Europese (Nederlandse) bijdrage in de veranderende kracht/macht verhouding?

Mourning

de verhouding 283 vs 208 doet geen recht aan de absolute overmacht van de USN. Je hoeft alleen maar te kijken naar hoeveel onderhand bijna antieke schepen de Russen nog in hun inventaris hebben, de supercarriers van de USN, de AEGIS-platformen, etc.

Dan  kunnen de Russen wel het een en ander bouwen, maar ze komen nog niet in de verste verte in de buurt van Amerikaanse Marine. Kan ze die laatste pijn doen en proberen de Amerikanen een veel groter aantal regionen af te dekken? Ja, uiteraard, maar dat is een ander verhaal.
"The only thing necessary for Evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing"- Edmund Burke
"War is the continuation of politics by all other means", Carl von Clausewitz, Vom Kriege/On War (1830).

jurrien visser (JuVi op Twitter)

Russia Builds a New Navy to Dominate the Arctic Ocean

By Rich Smith  | January 19, 2014

The mightiest force on the high seas, the United States Navy boasts a fleet 283 warships strong. In comparison, Russia's navy, once America's archrival, has only 208 warships -- but Russia is closing the gap, and quickly.

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/01/19/russia-builds-a-new-navy-to-dominate-the-arctic-oc.aspx#.UuX8gr2Uw6w.twitter

dudge

Citaat van: Ace1 op 03/01/2014 | 23:29 uur
Hebben die Russen niets anders dan  Tu-142 and Il-38  om en rond te Noordpool te patrouilleren die dingen vallen van metaalarmoede bijna uit elkaar.

Omdat ze natuurlijk ook zoveel ouder zijn dan de 1950's P3 Orion's en B52's.....

Ace1

Hebben die Russen niets anders dan  Tu-142 and Il-38  om en rond te Noordpool te patrouilleren die dingen vallen van metaalarmoede bijna uit elkaar.

Lex

Citaat van: jurrien visser op 03/01/2014 | 15:23 uur
Russian Navy to Expand Air Patrols in Arctic

..... "In 2014, the naval aviation of the Northern Fleet will significantly expand the geography of Arctic patrol flights, including with the use of the Temp airfield on the New Siberian Islands," Capt. 1st Rank Vadim Serga said.

Serga said the fleet's Tu-142 and Il-38 reconnaissance and anti-submarine warfare aircraft carried out over 30 patrol missions in the Arctic last year. .....

Voor deze bakken heb je toch een minimale lengte van 11000ft nodig als landings-/startbaan.  :angel:

jurrien visser (JuVi op Twitter)

#95
Citaat van:  en.ria.ru/military_news Vandaag om 03:23
Russian Navy to Expand Air Patrols in Arctic


Gelukkig hebben wij "geen" belangen in die regio, stel je toch eens voor dat er een beroep ons gedaan zou worden.  :sick:

OPV on ice  :cute-smile:

jurrien visser (JuVi op Twitter)

Russian Navy to Expand Air Patrols in Arctic

MOSCOW, January 3 (RIA Novosti) – Combat aircraft from Russia's Northern Fleet will extend the ranges of their patrol flights over the Arctic in 2014 using a network of revamped Soviet-era airfields, the fleet's spokesman said Friday.

"In 2014, the naval aviation of the Northern Fleet will significantly expand the geography of Arctic patrol flights, including with the use of the Temp airfield on the New Siberian Islands," Capt. 1st Rank Vadim Serga said.

Serga said the fleet's Tu-142 and Il-38 reconnaissance and anti-submarine warfare aircraft carried out over 30 patrol missions in the Arctic last year.

Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the Russian military in December to boost its presence in the Arctic and complete the development of military infrastructure in the region in 2014.

The Russian Defense Ministry has announced plans to deploy a combined-arms force in the Arctic by 2015.

As part of the ambitious program, the Russian military will reopen airfields and ports on the New Siberian Islands and the Franz Josef Land archipelago, as well as at least seven airfields on the continental part of the Arctic Circle that were mothballed in 1993.

Arctic territories, believed to hold vast untapped oil and gas reserves, have increasingly been at the center of disputes between the United States, Russia, Canada, Norway and Denmark as rising temperatures lead to a reduction in sea ice.

Russia has made claims on several Arctic shelf areas and is planning to defend its bid at the United Nations.

http://en.ria.ru/military_news/20140103/186198885/Russian-Navy-to-Expand-Air-Patrols-in-Arctic.html