Vervanging huidige F-16's, deel 3

[Lex]

De markt heeft gesproken: Saudi Arabië koopt 72 F-15SE's.

Volgens dit topic zijn het er inmiddels 84. 

[Northern_Darkness]

De markt heeft gesproken: Saudi Arabië koopt 72 F-15SE's. Er zullen nog wel meer potentiële F-35 klanten volgen. Tel daarbij nog eens het verhaal over Israël (geplaatst door Lex) en je ziet, dat de Nederlandse belangen in een F-35 aankoop steeds kleiner worden.

[Lex]

Politics places F-35 coalition abroad in doubt

Stormy political and economic weather abroad threatens to undermine the international coalition that has supported development of the F-35 joint strike fighter as the next-generation combat jet for the U.S. and its closest allies.
Three months after a stalemated election in the Netherlands cast doubt on that key country's continued support of the F-35, Dutch politicians still have not formed a coalition government. And even if the Dutch political process is resolved soon, that nation and virtually all of the others that have signaled their intent to buy the F-35 face enormous pressures to cut spending and reduce budget deficits.
"If you don't face an existential threat from the world around you, then expensive weapons systems like the F-35 look like an attractive place to cut," said Joel Johnson, international analyst with the Teal Group, an aerospace forecasting firm.
At the moment, all eyes are on The Hague, where three Dutch political parties are negotiating to form a new coalition government. News reports said the talks broke off last week, then resumed Tuesday, but the two leading Dutch political parties (of 17) that have supported the F-35 need to enlist the support of a third, more populist party that has opposed it in the past.
"While negotiations are ongoing, it looks like the three center-right parties will be able to form a new government in the coming months, which bodes well" for continued support of the F-35, said Mackenzie Eaglen, defense and foreign policy fellow for the Heritage Foundation.
The Dutch have been one of the staunchest F-35 supporters since the program's inception as the choice of the air force to replace its fleet of aging F-16 fighter jets. The Netherlands committed $800 million to the development effort, signed up to buy two airplanes so it could participate in operational testing, and was expected to buy at least 85 planes beginning early in this decade.
But the ruling Dutch government resigned in February. In May, Parliament in a narrow vote decreed that the nation opt out of the test program and cancel plans to buy one of the two test aircraft.
Dutch political observers say a new government will have to be formed and a defense minister chosen to propose future F-35 policy direction to Parliament, although air force leaders still strongly support the F-35 program.
Lockheed Martin officials and their counterparts in the Pentagon overseeing the F-35 program are watching developments closely.
"The guys we have working in the Netherlands feel optimistic" that a new government will back continued F-35 participation, said Tom Burbage, the Lockheed executive vice president and F-35 program general manager in charge of maintaining U.S. and international political support.
Complicating the coalition negotiations is the center-right VVD party, which won the most seats in parliamentary elections. It has to work with the Christian Democrats, who are more moderate but still U.S.-leaning, and the PVV, typically more left-leaning.
The bigger international economic problem facing the F-35 program is making Pentagon officials nervous, Eaglen said. The Pentagon's own F-35 costs estimates, already soaring, are based on the premise that the British, Dutch and other international partners will buy the expected numbers of planes at the anticipated times, which will lower per-plane production costs. If one partner delays or cuts expected purchases, costs will rise for other partners, which in turn will lead to further political pressures.
"Any change in the allies' participation in the program has the potential to severely disrupt the program," Eaglen said. If even one of the partner nations bolts, "it could open the floodgates for others to follow."
Only Israel has committed to a firm F-35 order, but it will pay with U.S. military aid. Australia and Canada have said they will definitely buy F-35s but haven't placed orders.
Reports out of Britain indicate that officials are rethinking which F-35 model to buy and when, and may even be considering an alternative aircraft as the government tries to reduce its deficit. Italy has indicated that it will likely reduce future defense spending.
"Anytime a report comes out about changes in the F-35 or in the costs of the program, it sends tremors around the world," Eaglen said.
Burbage acknowledges the political and budgetary pressures, but says that the F-35 partner nations still have to buy new aircraft at some point and that the F-35 will be the best plane and the best value.
Lockheed's cost projections, Burbage said, show that if international partners stick to their F-35 plans, the cost of the airplanes "will be less than any of the alternatives."

Fort Worth Star Telegram, Posted Thursday, Sep. 09, 2010

[Lex]

Israel nails rich F-35 maintenance contract

OTTAWA — Israel has scored guarantees of billions of dollars of work on the stealth fighters Canada eventually hopes to buy — even though, unlike Canada and other nations, it has not invested any money in the development of the aircraft.

Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak has said he approved in principle the proposed deal to buy 20 Joint Strike Fighters, adding that the country's industries have been guaranteed more than $4 billion in work on the aircraft in exchange for the purchase.

Aerospace analysts say that will spark questions from countries such as Canada, Denmark, Italy, Britain and others that invested upfront in the plane, also known as the F-35, in the hopes their own industries would have the inside track on winning contracts. Canada plans to spend $9 billon purchasing 65 F-35s but it is unclear at this point what, if any, guarantees of work the Harper government has received from Lockheed Martin, the builder of the F-35.

Asked about the Israeli deal, Defence Minister Peter MacKay said that Canadian firms have won more than $330 million worth of contracts on the F-35 and that he is confident the government's decision to buy the fighter will open "the door to a huge influx of business for Canadian aerospace."

MacKay noted the decision to buy the plane will pave the way for Canadian industry to bid on an estimated $12 billion worth of work. Industry officials, however, say there are no guarantees that much work will come to Canadian firms.

Some Canadian aerospace executives have privately voiced concerns about whether the purchase will result in significant "industrial benefits." Besides the initial purchase of the aircraft, Canada will enter into a contract for long-term support for the F-35, a deal that is expected to be worth around $7 billion.

In previous defence procurements, it has been common for Canada to obtain the equivalent of 100-per-cent industrial benefits. In the case of the F-35, industry officials argue that Canada should receive at least $16 billion in aerospace and other contracts from the program.

One of the Canadian government's main selling points for the F-35 purchase, the most expensive military procurement in the country's history, is the windfall in industrial work that will come from participating in the program. Because Canada got in on the ground floor of the development of the plane, it is in an excellent position to obtain that work, government and Defence Department officials have argued.

Canada contributed around $170 million to develop the F-35, MacKay noted. "Canadian aerospace is very competitive," he added. "We have the ability now, the opening, to make the case for building parts of this aircraft in Canada."

Defence analyst Martin Shadwick noted that Israel was able to gain lucrative benefits without having to join the program. "This will attract the attention of the official partners and spark some pointed questions for the Americans," he said, adding that the U.S. and Israel have a close defence partnership.

The Israeli purchase of the 20 planes is expected to cost $2.7 billion U.S. But a Lockheed Martin spokesman said Israel's industrial participation agreement with the company is based on the country's desire to eventually buy 75 F-35s.

"Israel's industrial participation in the F-35 program is best-value based, with no offset arrangements, and will have no effect on the F-35 partner nations' industrial plans," the company stated in an e-mail. "Israeli companies will compete based on cost, schedule and quality for F-35 work."

There have been ongoing concerns from Denmark and Italy about the amount of work their domestic firms have obtained on the program so far. Norwegian industry has also criticized the amount of work they have on the F-35, prompting the government to only commit to the plane if domestic firms are guaranteed high-value work that is equivalent to what it will spend on the aircraft purchase.

Canada's proposed F-35 deal has been controversial, with opposition parties questioning whether the purchase is needed at a time when the country's deficit has ballooned to $50 billion. Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff has promised to review the purchase if the Liberals are elected.

Canada won't be required to sign a contract committing it to purchasing the fighters until 2013, opening the door for any future government to back away from the deal. The military's CF-18 fighters can continue flying until around 2018.

The union representing aerospace workers has been pushing for the government to make sure the contract for the maintenance of the planes stays in Canada. They have been joined in that call by industry executives such as Sylvain Bedard, the president of L-3 MAS in Mirabel, Que. The company currently maintains the CF-18s. On Thursday MacKay announced that the F-35s, expected to be delivered in 2016, will be operating from CFB Cold Lake, Alta, and CFB Bagottville, Que.

Vancouver Sun, SEPTEMBER 10, 2010 5:02 AM

[jurrien visser (JuVi op Twitter)]

In onderstraande artikel meer info over GFF/P305 en P306


Saab Offers Supercruising Stealth to South Korea
Aviation Week & Space Technology
07/07/2008 , page 32

South Korea?s combat aircraft requirement draws out advanced proposals from Western fighter houses

A Saab proposal to co-develop a stealth fighter with South Korea is raising the prospect of an Asian-European aircraft emerging to compete with the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning.

The South Korean project to build an advanced combat aircraft alternatively offers to fund developments of the Eurofighter Typhoon or to help sustain Boeing?s waning fighter business?but there is also a strong chance that the ambitious program will collapse into yet another F-35 order.

Saab is pitching a new design for a supercruising stealth fighter to South Korea, as well offering the possibility of joining the Gripen next-generation program (AW&ST June 30, p. 42).

Boeing is putting forward developments of the F-15, including reviving a 1990s concept without tail fins, and it has also offered a new fighter design.

EADS is pushing developments of the Typhoon beyond the Tranche 3 standard, and also flagging the opportunity of participating in its combat drone project. It may also have submitted a clean-sheet-of-paper fighter concept.

Lockheed Martin meanwhile is telling Seoul that the F-35 Lightning will meet its needs. That?s not surprising, since it has no business interest in supporting South Korean ambitions to co-develop a stealth fighter, which would surely become an F-35 competitor.

The diverse range of offerings from the four manufacturers reflects uncertainty in South Korea itself over combat aircraft development. The air force wants an advanced fighter, but various factions in the government, industry and military are debating whether the country should fill that requirement by buying off the shelf or by taking part in development of a new aircraft or major derivative.

The country has two substantive fighter requirements, F-X Phase III for 60 aircraft and then F-XX for 120. It also has a parallel domestic stealth fighter development program, KFX. The F-XX requirement calls for fifth-generation aircraft, so the hope is that KFX will fill that need through a joint program between South Korean and foreign industry, with the latter carrying up to 30% of the development cost.

But KFX is up for review this month by the administration of new President Lee Myung-bak. It may be canceled or restricted to co-production or assembly of an existing aircraft, boosting Lockheed Martin?s hopes of an order for the F-35. An intermediate possibility would be South Korean involvement in less advanced developments of current production aircraft.

The manufacturers presented their ideas at an air force seminar in Seoul on June 26.

Saab has circulated two series of designs for South Korea, for single and twin aircraft, recent iterations of which have been designated P305 and P306, respectively. Its presentation at the seminar showed only the twin-engine design, probably reflecting South Korean views on how large an aircraft is needed. The air force?s Warfare Development Group has described the KFX as having a capability between that of the F-15 and F-16. By ?capability? it must mean weight and thrust class, since a new stealth aircraft would be much more capable than even updates of the 1970s designs.

Saab gave no specifications for its design but the external weapons shown on a drawing suggested an aircraft length of 17-18 meters (56-59 ft.). Span is much less than the length, possibly about 12 meters. If those rough estimates are correct, then the Saab stealth fighter would be at least as large as the Typhoon.

Saab shows single- and tandem-seat versions of the design. Inlet configuration is similar to the F-22?s, and the tail fins are canted. The trailing edge of the main-plane is swept forward, again like the F-22?s, but the leading edge looks significantly less swept. A gun is mounted abreast the left inlet duct.

The manufacturer promotes the aircraft as a balanced multirole design offering broadband stealth, supercruise, ?range and endurance,? integrated sensors, avionics and weapons, and situational awareness through the human-machine interface. It also claims attractive ?low life-cycle cost, growth potential [and] exportability,? while dismissing ?extreme stealth? as ?suitable for tailored platforms.?

Internal weapons stowage seems to be limited, since Saab says the bays are optimized for the air superiority role, although it still describes the aircraft as multirole in high-threat scenarios. External stores would be carried for low-threat scenarios. One of the three bays is behind the pit and between the inlets, and the other two are in the lower corners of the fuselage under the wing.

With domestic development, ?upgrades and changes to the aircraft can be implemented according to Republic of Korea Air Force priorities without interference by [the] seller?s government, etc.,? Saab argues, in a clear jab at Lockheed Martin. Brig. Gen. Lee Hee-woo, head of the Warfare Development Group, is opposed to a South Korean order for the F-35, saying the inaccessibility of its software will deny ?operational sovereignty? to the user.

Within South Korea, the defense ministry?s Agency for Defense Development is the most gung-ho about KFX. It would have little to do if KFX were canceled, so it is lobbying for the project to fill the F-XX requirement and has already produced stealthy concept designs.

Perhaps surprisingly, Korea Aerospace Industry is far less keen on an advanced development. Apparently mindful of its technological limitations, it would like the government instead to order the proposed F-50 combat version of the T-50, its Gripen-sized supersonic trainer.

The T-50 was developed under the guidance of Lockheed Martin, using the F-16 planform. Holding out the hope of a later development that might satisfy the urge to advance domestic technology, Korea Aerospace is also showing a concept of a delta-wing F-50XL, an analog of the F-16XL that Lockheed Martin offered to the U.S. Air Force in 1982. But the F-50XL concept differs from the F-16XL in having a wing with a straight leading edge, rather than a cranked arrow, and it has canted tail fins.

Some politicians are in favor of the F-35 for the F-XX requirement, and it is clearly well placed because of its combination of capability and cost.

The F-50 seems a long shot. Air force Chief of Staff Kim Eun-ki says the immediate priority is to continue buying fighters in the class of the F-15K until neighboring countries begin acquiring fifth-generation fighters.

Hence Boeing?s opportunity in pushing the F-15K, of which South Korea has already ordered 61. Boeing updated the F-15E to create the F-15K for F-X Phase I, added features again for Phase II, and now says the Phase III model would have a next-generation active electronically scanned radar, electronic warfare suite, and advanced memory and weapon systems.

The KFX would follow that, and Boeing seems to have shown the finless F-15 as a possible candidate for the advanced program. The advantage of such an aircraft would be lower radar reflections, weight and drag. Brad Jones, Boeing?s KFX program manager, tells Aviation Week & Space Technology that the Super Hornet could also be offered for KFX, and he adds that Boeing has also proposed a completely new design.

Jones suggests, however, that given the cost and development timescale implications of an all-new fighter, the defense ministry will most probably pursue the development of an existing aircraft to meet the KFX requirement.

The F-35 is the main competitor for F-X Phase III, as well as a strong candidate for F-XX. The immediate need to keep buying aircraft in the F-15K-class does not necessarily exclude the F-35, which is significantly larger than the Typhoon, for example.

The EADS offering is an improved Typhoon. In its presentation, EADS suggests new interface technologies, further development of sensor fusion and sensor upgrades, among others.

An EADS representative says: ?The EADS approach to KFX is based on an overarching partnership with the Republic of Korea [RoK] for the future combat air system capability development, including on the one hand RoK participation in the development of the Eurofighter future enhancements, and on the other the joint development of an unmanned combat air system, offering the perfect mix in terms of RoKAF future capability, program affordability and Korean industry workshare.?

A top South Korean government think tank responsible for economic policy analysis judged the KFX economically not worthwhile in December 2007 and stood fast when ordered by the defense ministry to reconsider its view (AW&ST Feb. 11, p. 19). The new government under President Lee, whose defense policy is vague, stresses economic efficiency first and foremost.

According to an industry source, one of the foreign companies offering to participate has assessed the program cost at 10 trillion won ($9.5 billion).

A committee chaired by Defense Minister Lee Sang-hee will conduct this month?s review.

The Agency for Defense Development has revealed successful ground tests on radar-absorbing material on a McDonnell Douglas F-4 fighter. The timing of the May announcement could be interpreted as an attempt to gain publicity for the country?s advanced aerospace efforts, helping to keep the KFX alive.

It isn?t clear whether the South Korean material is structural or a coating, nor, if it is a coating, whether it is a paint or a metallic compound.

The agency says it has been studying the material since 1999 and received good results from trials in an indoor test facility. The next step will be flight tests, which will be conducted ?soon,? it says.

Taiwan, whose technological capability is similar to South Korea?s, tested an imported anti-radar material on an AIDC AT-3 jet trainer in 2001-03. The supplier was ?an overseas Taiwanese man,? local media reported.

The Korean agency also says it has acquired technology for stealth shaping and analysis. In a November presentation, it showed pictures of a 1/10 scale model in an indoor radar range.

The model represented the agency?s K100 concept for a fighter that would resemble a twin-engined F-35 with a multifaceted nose.

The KFX project dates back to the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff?s decision in November 2002 to acquire up to 120 fighters, which is the requirement known as F-XX. In 2004-06 it became the basis of the agency?s fighter design study, which spawned two concepts, the K100 and K200, the latter being a twin-engined canard-delta fighter.

Like Japan?s full-scale radar cross-section model tested in France in 2005, the model probably closely reflects the agency?s ideas of what sort of aircraft it currently has in mind (AW&ST Feb. 11, p. 36).

[Elzenga]

Ik bespeur hier een interessante optie.
Nu een 45 tal Gripen (NG) kopen en later dan die GFF.

Ik verwacht eerder dat deze GFF inbreng wordt in een groter Europees programma. Ik denk niet dat de Zweden nog bereid en in staat zijn een volledig eigen gevechtsvliegtuig te ontwikkelen en produceren. Of van de Gripen (NG) moeten er alsnog enkele honderden extra verkocht worden. Ik zie dus voor Nederland wel genoeg reden via aanschaf van een Europees toestel in te stappen in dit soort Europese programma's...alleen hoeft dat niet perse die van Saab en de Zweden te zijn..

[IPA NG]

Er zijn meerder bronnen, lees ook:

FARNBOROUGH: Saab plots bright future for Gripen programme - 13:17 - [ Vertaal deze pagina ]
13 Jul 2010 ... Sweden's decades-long history of innovation in the aerospace sector is also evidenced by its Generic Future Fighter (GFF) concept. ...
www.flightglobal.com/.../farnborough-saab-plots-bright-future-for-gripen-programme.html -

Heel mooi artikel.

[Mourning]

Terwijl je nog bijna niets weet van het vliegtuig zijn capaciteiten, wanneer het beschikbaar komt, eventuele nieuwe ontwikkelingen, etc.

Ja, lijkt me echt top. Ik moet zeggen dat de GFF wel mijn interesse wekt, maar op dit moment weten we nog bijna niets dus om dan maar vast een "optie" daarop te nemen lijkt me niet zo'n goed plan.

Poleme, verkoopcijfers zeggen inderdaad lang niet altijd iets over de kwaliteit, maar zijn vaker wel dan niet op zijn minst een redelijke indicatie.

"En dat is gewoon een feit. Bouwde de VS de GNG dan had Nederland die boven aan haar lijstje staan..."

Nee, dat is dus een op speculatie gebaseerde mening.

[IPA NG]

Ik bespeur hier een interessante optie.
Nu een 45 tal Gripen (NG) kopen en later dan die GFF.

[Harald]

Hier onder een link omtrent de Saab GFF inclusief een filmpje van de testvlucht met het 13%schaalmodel.

http://www.iei.liu.se/flumes/aero/gff?l=en

en nog een link met meer info en plaatjes
de GFF wordt een twin-engine

http://robotpig.net/aerospace-news/saab-new-stealth-fighter-program-_1827

[jurrien visser (JuVi op Twitter)]

Er zijn meerder bronnen, lees ook:

FARNBOROUGH: Saab plots bright future for Gripen programme - 13:17 - [ Vertaal deze pagina ]
13 Jul 2010 ... Sweden's decades-long history of innovation in the aerospace sector is also evidenced by its Generic Future Fighter (GFF) concept. ...
www.flightglobal.com/.../farnborough-saab-plots-bright-future-for-gripen-programme.html -

[Elzenga]

Ik denk dat je SAAB moet vergelijken met Damen, die mogen ook blij zijn als ze een fatsoenlijke export order krijgen. Kleine landen hebben nu eenmaal niet de macht om andere ertoe te bewegen om producten te kopen ook al zijn de gewoon goed.

En dat is gewoon een feit. Bouwde de VS de GNG dan had Nederland die boven aan haar lijstje staan...

Een keuze voor de de NG is in mijn optiek niet de juiste tenzij deze als intrim oplossing wordt gezien. Een goede optie zou dan zijn om vroegtijdig deel te nemen aan deze Zweedse (of wellicht Europeese) ontwikkeling.

Dat lijkt me voor Nederland als Europees land en gezien haar hoogstaande technologische industrie een hele goed zet. Vele malen beter dan te blijven aanschuiven bij de Amerikaanse ontwikkeling...nota bene een belangrijke economische concurrent van de EU waar Nederland vooraanstaand lid van is. Ik ben er dus zeer voor om aansluiting te zoeken bij een Europees project en zo in dit vervolgtraject mee te gaan doen. Of dit nu is door aanschaf van GNGs of de Typhoon. En ik denk dat dit qua MLU e.d. niet zoveel uitmaakt (zie betoog Poleme). 

Hierbij link en foto van de ontwikkelingen waar men in Zweden mee bezig is..


http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2010/07/13/343778/farnborough-saab-plots-bright-future-for-gripen-programme.html

[Lex]

Vzke een bronvermelding aan je bericht "SWEDEN TO ADVANCE GENERIC FUTURE FIGHTER CONCEPT" toe te voegen.

Lex
algeheel beheerder

[jurrien visser (JuVi op Twitter)]

Saab Offers Supercruising Stealth to South Korea
Aviation Week & Space Technology
07/07/2008 , page 32

The manufacturers presented their ideas at an air force seminar in Seoul on June 26.

Saab has circulated two series of designs for South Korea, for single and twin aircraft, recent iterations of which have been designated P305 and P306, respectively.

link

[jurrien visser (JuVi op Twitter)]

SWEDEN TO ADVANCE GENERIC FUTURE FIGHTER CONCEPT

Sweden's decades-long history of innovation in the aerospace sector is also evidenced by its Generic Future Fighter (GFF) concept.

Developed by the Fluid and Mechatronic Systems division at Linköping University's department of Management and Engineering, the design has a Gripen-like fuselage with canards and canted tails.

Saab and the Swedish Defence Materiel Administration (FMV) awarded the university a contract to build a 13%-scale demonstrator of the concept. With a 15kg (33lb) take-off weight, the design is 2.4m (7.8ft) long, has a wing span of 1.5m and is powered by a jet engine delivering a thrust of 35.9lb (160N).



© ART


The GFF was flown for the first time last November, and "performed as expected".

The goal of the demonstration effort has been to deliver a cost-effective platform to support Sweden's long-term aeronautics research and development strategy, and to serve as a "flying windtunnel". The GFF also incorporates features such as internal weapons bays, supercruise performance and stealth capability.

The latter will be delivered partly by using a double curved geometry radome, manufactured from composite material to reduce the aircraft's radar cross-section. Acab, the design's manufacturer, says the technology could also equip future versions of the Gripen, plus unmanned air vehicles.

Now equipped with flight-test instrumentation, Sweden's subscale fighter demonstrator is due to start a new campaign of flight-testing this summer.