Spanning(en) rond Iran

[jurrien visser (JuVi op Twitter)]

'Israëlische aanval op Iran vergt uiterst complexe en geraffineerde operatie'

15 feb 2012

Een Israëlische aanval op Iran vergt een uiterst complexe militaire operatie, waarbij talloze vliegtuigen het Iraanse luchtruim moeten penetreren om tegelijkertijd een dozijn doelwitten te treffen. Dat zegt Charles Wald, een generaal op rust van de Amerikaanse Air Force, die de coalitie leidde die de Taliban uit Afghanistan verdreef na de aanslagen van 11 september 2001.

Wald spreekt in USA Today van een 'complexe en geraffineerde aanval'. Toen Israël in 2007 Syrië aanviel hoefde slechts één bovengronds object te worden geraakt. Daarenboven had het aangevallen land had weinig capaciteit om zich te verdedigen tegen luchtartillerie.

Iran kan dat wel. De nucleaire productie is verspreid over verschillende sites dwars doorheen het land. Enkele locaties zijn zo beschut en beschermd dat ze een bominslag kunnen weerstaan. Vijandelijke vliegtuigen zullen vanuit Iran onmiddellijk worden bestookt door raketten. Wald waarschuwt er ook voor dat Iran vanuit het buitenland een tegenaanval in kan zetten. Bijvoorbeeld via Hamas in Gaza en Hezbollah in Libanon. 

Een bijkomend probleem vormen tussenlandingen die de Israëlische piloten zouden moeten maken om bij te tanken. Het is weinig waarschijnlijk dat naburige landen bereid zou zijn Israëlische gevechtsvliegtuigen op hun grondgebied te dulden. De kortste weg naar Iran loopt via Irak, maar dat land kan sinds het vertrek van de Amerikanen niet langer zijn luchtruim beschermen. Een geheime landingsplaats in de woestijn is een mogelijke optie. De gevechtsvliegtuigen zouden ook moeten worden begeleid door andere vliegtuigen die radars kunnen neutralizeren.

Toch heeft Israël kans van slagen. "De Israëliërs zijn zeer creatief. Niemand weet precies hoe ze het zullen aanpakken",  zegt de voormalige Pentagon-medewerker Colin Kahl.

http://www.express.be/joker/nl/brainflame/israelische-aanval-op-iran-vergt-uiterst-complexe-en-geraffinneerde-operatie/161973.htm

[Ros]

En eerlijk gezegd heb ik liever die actie zo snel als mogelijk. Hoe eerder het voorbij is hoe eerder de olieprijzen kunnen dalen. Als dit nog een jaar of twee door duurt is de wereldeconomie even zo goed kapot.

En wat zal een nieuwe oorlog in de regio gaan doen met de olieprijzen ?. Laten dalen......denkt het niet.

Duidelijk is dat Iran niet onder de indruk is van het wapengekletter en dreigementen en zeker huilend in een hoekje zal kruipen als er oorlog komt. De gevolgen zullen hevig zijn, ben ik bang.

[jurrien visser (JuVi op Twitter)]

Ook nog tijd voor iets luchtigs... 

Iran's Model Drone Now Available Online

http://www.minyanville.com/dailyfeed/2012/02/14/irans-model-drone-now-available/

[jurrien visser (JuVi op Twitter)]

Iran will not yield to threats: defense minister

TEHRAN – Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi has said that in line with the "strategy of threat against threat," which has been adopted at the behest of the Supreme Leader, the Islamic Republic will not give in to the enemy's threats and budge from its principles. 

"The Supreme Leader's remarks indicate that we will never and under no circumstances back down and give in to the enemy's threats, but we will make threats against them using appropriate mechanisms," Brigadier General Vahidi told the Persian service of the Fars News Agency on Tuesday. 

In November 2011, Hossein Salami, the deputy commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, announced that Iran has adopted the "strategy of threat against threat" in the face of new threats against the Islamic Republic by Israel and the U.S. as its main ally.

"Based on the strategy of threat against threat, which was recently declared by the Supreme Leader, we are revising our defense doctrine... and this revision meets all our needs for a reliable defense and strong deterrence," Salami said.

Defense Minister Vahidi also said that the Islamic Republic will continue supporting the groups that oppose the Zionist regime.

In addition, Vahidi said Iran's firm responses to Israel's acts of hostility against the Islamic Revolution have placed the regime in its weakest position in the region and brought it to the verge of disintegration.

http://www.tehrantimes.com/politics/95458-iran-will-not-yield-to-threats-defense-minister-

[jurrien visser (JuVi op Twitter)]

Attacks Raise Specter of Escalating Israel-Iran War

By John Walcott - Feb 14, 2012 1:53 PM GMT+0100 .

Indian security and forensic officials after an explosion of a car belonging to the Israel Embassy in New Delhi on Feb. 13, 2012. The driver and a diplomat's wife were injured, according to Indian officials. Photographer: Saurabh Das/AP
.
U.S. officials and defense analysts are concerned that a covert war of assassinations between Israel and Iran could escalate out of control.

"Things are heating up and there is a surge" of assassination attempts, Matthew Levitt, a former U.S. Treasury Department official and now director of the Stein Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said in a telephone interview.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu yesterday blamed Iran for car bombings of Israeli diplomatic vehicles in New Delhi and the Georgian capital of Tbilisi. The attacks come after the deaths of several Iranian nuclear scientists, the most recent in a Jan. 11 car bombing in Tehran that Iran said Israel had orchestrated.

Israeli leaders have said time is running out for sanctions to deter Iran from developing nuclear weapons and have not ruled out a military strike. The U.S. and its allies have tightened economic restrictions on Iran while seeking to avert a military conflagration in a region that holds more than half of global oil reserves.

The attacks came a day after the fourth anniversary of the killing of Imad Mughniyeh, who was a leader of the military wing of the Iranian-backed Lebanese Hezbollah movement, which Israel and the U.S consider a terrorist organization.

Israeli Vow

Four people were injured in New Delhi, including the wife of an Israeli diplomat and her Indian driver, in a blast about 500 meters (1,640 feet) from Israel's embassy, Indian Foreign Ministry spokesman Syed Akbaruddin said in a text message. A bomb planted in an Israeli embassy employee's car in Tbilisi was discovered and defused before it exploded. Officials in Thailand said an Iranian was critically injured in a grenade explosion today as he and two others tried to escape arrest in Bangkok.

"Israel will act methodically and with determination and steadfastness against international terrorism originating from Iran," Netanyahu said in comments to parliament sent to reporters by text message.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton condemned yesterday's attacks, and Iran denied any connection to them. White House press spokesman Jay Carney said the U.S. is concerned about the targeting of Israeli interests, adding that the American government doesn't have information about who sponsored the operations.

U.S. intelligence officials and analysts said the latest incidents appear to fit a pattern of escalating violence between Israel and Iran, some of it probably carried out by Hezbollah in concert with elements of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Changed Calculus

In his annual threat assessment to Congress on Jan. 31, Director of National Intelligence James Clapper said an alleged plot last year to assassinate the Saudi Arabian ambassador to the U.S. "shows that some Iranian leaders -- probably including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei -- have changed their calculus and are now more willing to conduct an attack in the United States in response to real or perceived U.S. actions that threaten the regime. We are also concerned about Iranian plotting against U.S. or allied interests overseas."

Another U.S. intelligence official, speaking on condition of anonymity because intelligence matters are classified, said there is growing concern that Khamenei, who he said controls the Revolutionary Guard and its elite Qods Force, is becoming more isolated and radical and less risk-averse, partly in reaction to heightened Western economic pressure on his country and its nuclear program.

Coincidence of Interests

Four U.S. officials who spoke on condition of anonymity cited a planned Hezbollah attack that was prevented in Thailand and what they said were other anti-Israeli operations that were disrupted in Azerbaijan and Bulgaria. Thai police charged a Swedish-Lebanese man they said was linked to Hezbollah with possessing illegal substances after he was detained last month in connection with a plan to attack tourist sites frequented by Americans and Israelis, Charamporn Suramanee, the assistant police chief, said on Jan. 16.

Levitt said this period resembles the years 1992-1994, when Hezbollah and Iran had a coincidence of interests in attacking Israeli targets similar to the situation that exists today. That period included a 1992 bomb attack on an Israeli embassy building in Buenos Aires and a 1994 attack on a Jewish community center in the Argentine capital, both blamed on Hezbollah.

This time, Hezbollah is seeking to avenge Mughniyeh's 2008 death in Damascus and Iran is responding to the killings of its nuclear scientists, having blamed Israel in both cases, Levitt said.

'Iranian Retaliation'

"The most likely possibility is that this is Iranian retaliation for assassinations of the scientists," said Paul Pillar, a former CIA analyst who now teaches at Georgetown University, in an e-mail response to a query. "Even the method used was the same as the most recent such assassination" of the Iranian scientist.

Khamenei pledged Feb. 3 to help "any nation or group that confronts the Zionist regime."

Indian and Georgian authorities said they were trying to determine who was behind the attacks.

The attack in New Delhi was carried out by somebody who had been "well trained," India's Home Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram told reporters today. The government is not "pointing the finger" at any group as its investigation is continuing, he said.

"There is reason to believe that the target was the Israeli diplomat's wife and, therefore, one has to proceed on the basis that it was a terrorist attack," he said.

Israeli Bonds Fall

The Israeli injured in the Delhi explosion was in stable condition in a hospital in the city, Police Commissioner B.K. Gupta told reporters. A fire engulfed the car moments after the blast and was responsible for most of the damage to the vehicle, he said.

"The Israeli car was targeted, there is no doubt about it," Gupta said.

Israel's benchmark bonds fell yesterday, lifting yields to the highest level in almost two months. The yield on the 5.5 percent notes due January 2022 rose two basis points, or 0.02 percentage point, to 4.6 percent, the highest since Dec. 15. The Tel Aviv Stock Exchange's benchmark TA-25 Index fell 0.1 percent to 1119.49.

Initial investigations suggest that a magnetic device was attached to the car in New Delhi before it exploded, Gupta said. At least three other people including the driver were hurt in the explosion that occurred as the car drove toward the city's American Embassy School, he said.

'Propaganda War'

Iran's ambassador to India, Mahdi Nabizadeh, rejected charges his country was behind the attacks. According to Iran's official news agency IRNA, Nabizadeh called the Israeli accusations "lies" and said his government condemned any "terrorist" acts. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast said the accusations "are part of a propaganda war" by Israel, according to a report on state-run Press TV's website today.

In Tbilisi, an Israeli embassy employee discovered the bomb and reported it to police, who defused it, Georgian Interior Ministry spokesman Shota Utiashvili said by phone. There were no injuries and the embassy wasn't evacuated, he said.

The incident in Thailand followed an explosion at a rented house, according to officials in Bangkok. Five people were hurt. Police said two men, possibly Iranian, escaped.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-13/delhi-blast-hurts-two-in-israeli-embassy-car-as-georgia-bomb-is-made-safe.html

[Jah]

The US aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln has sailed through the Strait of Hormuz, close to the coast of Iran, for the second time in recent weeks.

A BBC reporter on board said an Iranian patrol boat at one point came within about half a mile of the carrier.

The vessel was protected by a US cruiser and destroyer. Iranian officials recently threatened to close the channel, through which 20% of the world's oil exports pass, in a row over oil trade embargoes.

The BBC's Jonathan Beale on board the Abraham Lincoln says the US has insisted it will keep the vital shipping lane open. A French warship and UK naval vessels accompanied the aircraft carrier in a journey through the strait last month.

The EU last month banned all oil imports from Iran amid growing concern over Tehran's nuclear program me

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-17027768

[jurrien visser (JuVi op Twitter)]

Israel Will 'Settle The Score' For Bangkok Explosions

An Iranian man blew off his legs with grenades and wounded four civilians Tuesday in Bangkok, the Associated Press reported. The man was identified as Saeid Moradi from Iran by a passport found at the scene. CBS and the AP reported that an Israeli Cabinet minister said his country will "settle the score" with the perpetrators of the bombing.

According to the AP, a blast earlier that day had shaken the house Moradi was sharing with two other Iranian men. A part of the roof was blown off and the two other men quickly left the house.

Police Gen. Pansiri Prapawat told the AP that Moradi was seriously injured by the blast and attempted to wave down a taxi. He was covered in blood so the driver refused to take him. Moradi then threw an explosive that damaged the taxi.

Police responded to a call about the first blast and tried to apprehend Moradi. He threw a grenade but it "somehow bounced back" and blew off his legs, Pansiri told the AP.

Israel has blamed Iran for this blast, as well as the Monday bombing of an Israeli diplomatic car in India. Tensions are high over Iran's nuclear program. Israel doesn't believe Iran's claims that it's not pursuing nuclear weapons. Iran has blamed Israel for a series of assassinations of nuclear scientists.

The AP reported:

Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak said the Bangkok blasts were attempted terrorist attacks backed by Iran. Another government minister strongly implied Israel would seek revenge, without mentioning Iran explicitly.

"We know who carried out the terror attacks, we know who sent them, and Israel will settle the score with them," Public Security Minister Yitzhak Aharonovitch told Israel Radio.

One of the other men staying with Moradi was arrested later at an airport.

Three Thai men and a Thai woman were treated for injuries.

http://www.neontommy.com/news/2012/02/israel-will-settle-score-bangkok-explosions

[jurrien visser (JuVi op Twitter)]

Een uitgebreid passage verlag in navytimes.

Iranian boats shadow Navy's Hormuz patrol

By Adam Schreck - The Associated Press
Posted : Tuesday Feb 14, 2012 11:06:05 EST

ABOARD THE ABRAHAM LINCOLN — Iranian patrol boats and aircraft shadowed a U.S. aircraft carrier strike group as it transited the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday.

http://www.navytimes.com/news/2012/02/ap-iranian-boats-shadow-navy-hormuz-patrol-021412/

[jurrien visser (JuVi op Twitter)]

U.S.: No decision yet from Israel on Iran

WASHINGTON (AP) – Defense Secretary Leon Panetta says he does not think Israel has made a decision to launch a military strike on Iran to thwart its nuclear ambitions.

By J. Scott Applewhite, AP

Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, right, accompanied by Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Martin Dempsey, testifies Tuesday in front of the Senate Armed Services Committee on Capitol Hill.

By J. Scott Applewhite, AP

Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, right, accompanied by Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Martin Dempsey, testifies Tuesday in front of the Senate Armed Services Committee on Capitol Hill.

Testifying before the Senate Armed Services Committee Tuesday, Panetta was pressed on the growing possibility that Israel would attack Iran. Israel has blamed Iran for recent diplomatic attacks overseas. Tehran has denied responsibility.

Panetta said Iran was a great concern and the U.S. has a common cause with Israel and the international community to ensure that Iran does not develop a nuclear weapon. He said the U.S. and other nations have taken strong steps with sanctions and stressed the importance of keeping the international community together.

Panetta said that as President Barack Obama suggested, the administration does not think Israel has made a decision.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/story/2012-02-14/panetta-israel-iran/53091092/1

[jurrien visser (JuVi op Twitter)]

Israelis: Iran Behind Bangkok Bombings, 'Coordinated Attacks' Around the World

By RICHARD ESPOSITO

Feb. 14, 2012

The failed bomb attack by an Iranian national in Bangkok today is just the latest in what Israeli officials say is "a coordinated series of attacks" that began in January, and includes Monday's attacks in India and Georgia, as well as a foiled attempt to assassinate the Israeli ambassador in Azerbaijan.

In Tuesday's bombing, an Iranian named Saeid Moradi was in a Bangkok house when a cache of explosives detonated, apparently by accident, taking off a section of the roof.

Thai police say that Moradi, wounded by the explosion, tried to flag down a cab on the street. "He was covered in blood, and the driver refused to take him," said Police General Pansiri Prapawat.

PHOTOS: Covert War? Iran vs. the West

Moradi then allegedly threw a grenade at the taxi and started running. When he tried to hurl a second grenade at police, the bomb bounced off a tree. It exploded near Moradi and took off his legs. Police will interview him as soon as they are able in order to determine what he was plotting to attack.

Four Thai nationals were injured in the explosion. After the incident, Thai police detained a second Iranian national who was attempting to fly from Bangkok to Malaysia.

Israeli officials told ABC News "we don't know" what Moradi's intended target was "because he was caught."

A spokesman for Israel's foreign ministry has said there is no sign yet that Moradi's alleged targets were Jewish or Israel. Defense Minister Ehud Barak, however, placed the blame on the Iranian government. "The attempted terror attack in Thailand proves once again that Iran and its proxies continue to operate in the ways of terror and the latest attacks are an example of that," said Barak

According to Israeli records, one of the most serious of the coordinated wave of attacks came in January, when three Azerbaijani nationals were intercepted before they could attack Israeli ambassador Michael Lotem and a rabbi and a woman at the Chabad center in Baku, the capital. In the 2008 Mumbai attack, terrorists invaded the Chabad center in Mumbai and killed the rabbi, his wife and four hostages.

Israeli officials say that three people have been arrested and they were in direct contact with Iranian intelligence. According to the Israelis, the suspects had been promised 150,000 U.S. dollars on completion of the assassination of the ambassador.

At the homes of the suspects, local police allegedly discovered drawings of the Israeli embassy, information on the Israeli diplomatic vehicles and specific information on the ambassador.

Ambassador Lotem told local media in Azerbaijan Tuesday that Iran's "direct involvement" in both the Indian and Bangkok bombings "is non-disputable."

On Monday, a motorcyclist placed a sticky bomb on a minivan belonging to the Israeli embassy in New Delhi, India. Four people were injured in the explosion, including the wife of a diplomat and her driver. A bomb placed on an Israeli car in Tblisi, Georgia failed to detonate and was defused.

http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/israelis-iran-bangkok-blast/story?id=15584889

[jurrien visser (JuVi op Twitter)]

Iran onthult nieuwe kernprojecten

TEHERAN - De Iraanse president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad onthult woensdag een aantal nieuwe projecten binnen het omstreden Iraanse atoomprogramma. Dat heeft het Iraanse staatspersbureau IRNA dinsdag gemeld.


IRNA zei niet wat de nieuwe projecten inhouden. Een onafhankelijke website die regelmatig bericht over het Iraanse atoomprogramma meldde echter dat de nieuwe ondergrondse verrijkingsfabriek in Fordo officieel in gebruik zal worden genomen. Daarnaast wordt een aantal centrifuges in Fordo woensdag opgestart, zo meldde de website Irannuc. Ahmadinejad zal volgens Irannuc ook de laatste fase van de productie van nieuwe splijtstaven aankondigen.

De Verenigde Staten en andere landen verdenken Iran ervan aan een kernwapen te werken. Iran ontkent deze aantijgingen.

http://www.nd.nl/artikelen/2012/februari/14/iran-onthult-nieuwe-kernprojecten

[VandeWiel]

Stel dat je uit gaat van een oorlog in maart. Even een paar gedachten sprongen.

Wat nu als die aanslagen in India en Georgie False Flag waren en als doel een eerste stap te zetten in het conflict. Of Iran besluit dat het tij niet meer te keren valt of Syrie gered moet worden. Hezbollah krijgt de schuld en Israel besluit Hezbollah aan te pakken. In de oorlog die volgt ontneemt Israel Iran de belangrijkste mogelijkheid om terug te slaan, namelijk via de 60.000 raketten van Hezbollah. Een mogelijke volgende stap is dan de inmenging van Syrie aangezien zij tegen die tijd ook belang hebben bij het internationaliseren van hun eigen problemen. Mogelijk dat Syrie deze stappen ook ziet en daarom nu al harder ingrijpt tegen de eigen bevolking. Tegen de tijd dat het volledig uit de hand loopt en Iran besluit deel te gaan nemen, lees Hormuz te sluiten, is het twee weken verder en zitten we in maart. Ik weet niet wanneer exact de 3e carrier er moet liggen, maar kwa planning nog niet volledig onmogelijk.

[VandeWiel]

Mee eens. En vwb de onvewachte snelheid, hiermee doelde ik idd op Israel.

En juist die kans is nu kleiner :)

Als de voorbereidingen van de VS zo duidelijk lijken, waarom zou Israel dan nu aanvallen? Als ze nog even wachten ligt de VS volledig klaar om deel te nemen!?

Die aanslagen van de laatste dagen, die zouden zo maar bedoeld kunnen zijn om Israel uit te lokken van haar eigen planning af te stappen. Hetzij om een conflict met Syrie uit te lokken hetzij om preventief een oorlog met Iran te starten. De komende tijd gaat zeer spannend worden, zeker als Iran overtuigd raakt dat een conflict niet meer te voorkomen valt.

[jurrien visser (JuVi op Twitter)]

Als het gaat gebeuren zal het wellicht overwacht eerder komen dan waar nu de speculaties van uitgaan.

Volgens mij waren de voorbereidingen van de voorgaande grote oorlogen ook vrij zichtbaar

Ik weet het niet, de VS zijn meer pragmatisch. Eerst een gedegen opbouw, dan de daadwerkelijke aanval. Het lijkt me bij de VS vrij voorspelbaar. Israel is natuurlijk een heel ander verhaal... Vooralsnog houd ik het op geloofwaardig dreigen met een aanval, maar als Iran daar niets mee doet vrees ik dat er geen weg terug is als alles daar klaar ligt gezien alle andere pogingen om Iran te stoppen die al zijn mislukt.

En eerlijk gezegd heb ik liever die actie zo snel als mogelijk. Hoe eerder het voorbij is hoe eerder de olieprijzen kunnen dalen. Als dit nog een jaar of twee door duurt is de wereldeconomie even zo goed kapot.

Mee eens. En vwb de onvewachte snelheid, hiermee doelde ik idd op Israel.

[VandeWiel]

Als het gaat gebeuren zal het wellicht overwacht eerder komen dan waar nu de speculaties van uitgaan.

Volgens mij waren de voorbereidingen van de voorgaande grote oorlogen ook vrij zichtbaar

Ik weet het niet, de VS zijn meer pragmatisch. Eerst een gedegen opbouw, dan de daadwerkelijke aanval. Het lijkt me bij de VS vrij voorspelbaar. Israel is natuurlijk een heel ander verhaal... Vooralsnog houd ik het op geloofwaardig dreigen met een aanval, maar als Iran daar niets mee doet vrees ik dat er geen weg terug is als alles daar klaar ligt gezien alle andere pogingen om Iran te stoppen die al zijn mislukt.

En eerlijk gezegd heb ik liever die actie zo snel als mogelijk. Hoe eerder het voorbij is hoe eerder de olieprijzen kunnen dalen. Als dit nog een jaar of twee door duurt is de wereldeconomie even zo goed kapot.