Spanning(en) rond Iran

[KapiteinRob]

Zou Nederland ook van de partij zijn?

Wat denk je zelf?

[Jah]

Pentagon: 20 nations plan exercise in Mideast

Zou Nederland ook van de partij zijn?

[jurrien visser (JuVi op Twitter)]

U.S To Build Missile Defense Radar Station In Qatar To Counter Iranian Missiles

Tue, Jul 17, 2012 11:46 CET

      The U.S. is setting up missile radar battery in the Middle East to counter the threat posed by Iran as it continues testing long range ballistic missiles.

      Earlier this month, Iran tested a surface-to-surface missile which successfully hit their targets. The so-called Shahab-3 missile is capable of reaching Israel and southern Europe. The missiles are also capable of hitting U.S. bases in the region.

      In an effort to protect U.S interests and allies against Iranian rockets, the Pentagon has chosen a secret site in Qatar to build a missile-defense radar station and is organizing its biggest-ever minesweeping exercises in the Persian Gulf.

      The new radar base will house a powerful AN/TPY-2 radar, also known as X-Band radar, and supplement two similar arrays already in place in Israel's Negev Desert and in central Turkey. In turn, the radar installations are being linked to missile-interceptor batteries throughout the region and to U.S. ships with high-altitude interceptor rockets.

      Forming an arc, the three radar sites together can detect missile launches from northern, western and southern Iran enabling U.S. officials and allied militaries to track missiles launched from deep inside Iran.

      U.S officials believe Iran could have a ballistic missile as early as 2015 that could threaten the U.S. Qatar was chosen to host the new radar site because it is home to the largest U.S. military air base with more than 8,000 troops stationed there.

      According to the Pentagon, it will cost $12.2 million to construct a pad for the radar, roads, barracks and security measures at the Qatar site.

      The move comes after months of futile negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program although Tehran disputes claims of building nuclear weapons.

      Although the U.S officials say the radar site and upcoming naval exercises are defensive in nature, the move could be reflected as provocative to Iran.

      According to reports, the U.S. moves are intended to address the two Iranian offensive capabilities Pentagon planners most worry about: Tehran's arsenal of ballistic missiles and its threat to shut down the oil-shipping lanes of the Strait of Hormuz by mining them.

      Meanwhile, the Pentagon announced on Monday that it is sending an aircraft carrier to the Middle East several months early to ensure two carriers are present in the region at all times.

http://www.defenseworld.net/go/defensenews.jsp?id=7206&h=U.S%20To%20Build%20Missile%20Defense%20Radar%20Station%20In%20Qatar%20To%20Counter%20Iranian%20Missiles

[jurrien visser (JuVi op Twitter)]

Pentagon: 20 nations plan exercise in Mideast

Posted: Jul 17, 2012 By PAULINE JELINEK

WASHINGTON (AP) - In a move to bolster military strength against Iran, 20 nations will stage an anti-mining exercise in Mideast waterways.

Defense Department press Secretary George Little said the large minesweeping exercise Sept. 16-27 is a defensive drill and is "not ... aimed to deliver a message to Iran."

But Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, the route for one-fifth of the world's oil, in retaliation for international sanctions over Tehran's nuclear program.

The upcoming exercise will focus on "a hypothetical threat from an extremist organization to mine the international strategic waterways of the Middle East, including the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, the Gulf of Oman, and the Persian Gulf, although exercise activities will not extend into the Strait of Hormuz," U.S. Central Command said in a statement.

"This is a defensive exercise aimed at preserving freedom of navigation in the international waterways of the Middle East and aimed at promoting regional stability," Little told Pentagon reporters on Tuesday.

Word of the exercise follows Monday's announcement that a second aircraft carrier will be sent to the region in September - several months earlier than planned - to ensure there will be two carriers in the region through early next year. The Pentagon also recently doubled the number of minesweepers in the region. And it sent the USS Ponce, an amphibious transport dock recently retrofitted to become what is known as an afloat forward staging base.

The buildup comes amid a stalemate in talks over Iran's nuclear program, which Tehran says is for peaceful purposes and other nations fear is to develop a nuclear weapon.

The exercise will practice mine countermeasures in multiple waterways. It will demonstrate "the international community's ability to work together to ensure free and secure trade," said Gen. James Mattis, commander for the region.

"Of the approximately 40 bilateral and multilateral exercises we'll conduct this year, this exercise also represents the extensive cooperation we enjoy with our international partners - both in and outside the region - with mutual economic and security interest," Mattis said.

Officials declined to name the other nations participating, saying they should identify themselves.

Copyright 2012 The Associated Press.

[jurrien visser (JuVi op Twitter)]

US Navy Plans Exercise In Persian Gulf

Anti-Mining Exercise Focuses On Transport Routes

By Adam Levine CNN, July 17, 2012

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- The United States will conduct an anti-mining naval exercise in the Middle East in September, the Pentagon said.
The action comes amid concern about Iran blocking key oil transport routes with underwater mines.
The exercise, scheduled for September 16-27, will involve more than 20 countries and take place in multiple locations, Pentagon spokesman George Little said.

"This is a defensive exercise aimed at preserving freedom of navigation in the international waterways of the Middle East and aimed at promoting regional stability," Little told reporters at a Pentagon press conference. "These exercises are designed to enhance cooperation (and) develop mutual maritime capabilities, and are aimed at promoting long-term regional stability."
Little said the military event is not meant to deliver a message to Iran.
"This is an exercise that's designed to, within this multinational forum, increase our capabilities and cooperation."

http://www.10news.com/news/31280876/detail.html

[jurrien visser (JuVi op Twitter)]

Iran announces plans to hold massive naval drills

July 18, 2012 - 11:55 AMT

PanARMENIAN.Net - A senior commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps announced that the IRGC Navy plans to stage massive naval wargames in the near future, Fars News Agency reported.

Lieutenant Commander of IRGC Navy Rear Admiral Javad Mashidi said the IRGC naval forces will stage wargames soon, and added that the necessary equipment has already been supplied for the drills.

"The IRGC Navy is fully prepared to carry out the maneuvers and will once again display its military might to protect Iran's borders," the commander stated.

Earlier this month, the IRGC Aerospace Force wrapped up three days of massive missile drills, codenamed Payambar-e Azam 7
(The Great Prophet 7).

Commander of the IRGC Aerospace Force Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh said at the time that the IRGC has detailed contingency plans to hit 35 U.S. bases in the region in case of a conflict.

http://www.panarmenian.net/eng/news/116231/

[jurrien visser (JuVi op Twitter)]

Neemt Iran wraak na Stuxnet en Flame?

door Jaap de Wreede op woensdag, 18 juli 2012


Een nieuw virus in het Midden-Oosten lijkt het werk te zijn van Iraniërs. Het nieuwe nummer van PC-Active, waarin een cyberaanval door Iran wordt voorspeld, lijkt bewaarheid te worden. Of is het regime van Ahmadinejad opnieuw slachtoffer van een dirty trick?

Eerder deze week maakten onderzoekers van Kaspersky Lab de resultaten bekend van een onderzoek met betrekking tot Madi. Dit oorspronkelijk door beveiligingsbedrijf Seculert ontdekte virus is de hoofdrolspeler in een infiltratiecampagne van computernetwerken. Madi is een kwaadaardig Trojaans paard dat via social engineering programma's wordt afgeleverd bij zorgvuldig geselecteerde doelwitten.

Israëli's en studenten
Kaspersky Lab en Seculert slaagden er samen in om de Command & Control (C&C) servers van Madi binnen te dringen en zo de campagne te volgen. De onderzoekers wisten meer dan achthonderd slachtoffers te identificeren in Iran, Israël en andere landen over de hele wereld die de afgelopen acht maanden verbinding hadden gemaakt met de C&C-servers.

Uit de statistieken blijkt dat de slachtoffers voornamelijk mensen zijn uit het bedrijfsleven die werken voor Iraanse en Israëlische kritieke infrastructuurprojecten, Israëlische financiële instellingen, technische studenten uit het Midden-Oosten en diverse overheidsinstellingen in het Midden-Oosten.

Onderzoek van de malware toonde een grote hoeveelheid religieuze en politieke documenten en beelden aan, die verzonden werden tijdens de initiële infectie om de aandacht van de ontvanger af te leiden.

Surveillance
"Hoewel de malware en de infrastructuur erg eenvoudig zijn in vergelijking met andere, soortgelijke projecten, bleken de Madi-aanvallers in staat een aanhoudende surveillanceoperatie uit te voeren tegen high-profile slachtoffers," aldus Nicolas Brulez, Senior Malware Researcher bij Kaspersky Lab. "Misschien hielp de amateuristische en rudimentaire aanpak de operatie juist onder de radar te blijven en ontdekking te vermijden."

Aviv Raff, Chief Technology Officer bij Seculert, vult aan: "Interessant is dat we tijdens onze gezamenlijke analyse veel Perzische tekenreeksen aantroffen in de malware en de C&C-tools, wat ongebruikelijk is in kwaadaardige code. De aanvallers spraken deze taal ongetwijfeld vloeiend."

Dit zou kunnen duiden op een Iraans maaksel, en dan ligt het voor de hand om te denken aan een tegenaanval na de Stuxnet- en Flame-virussen. Die waren beide gericht tegen het Iraanse kernprogramma en als daders vallen de namen van de Verenigde Staten en Israël.

Maar voordat we al te snelle conclusies trekken: de Perzische code kan heel goed een afleidingsmanoeuvre zijn van een land dat of groepering die Teheran in een kwaad daglicht wil stellen... Bovendien is het door het brede scala aan slachtoffers nog niet meteen duidelijk wie belang heeft bij deze aanval.

Hotmail
Madi's informatie-stelende Trojan stelt externe aanvallers in staat gevoelige bestanden te stelen van geïnfecteerde Windows-computers. Ook houdt het toezicht op gevoelige communicatie zoals e-mail en instant messaging, neemt het audio op, houdt het een log bij van toetsaanslagen en maakt het screenshots van activiteiten van zijn slachtoffers. Data-analyse suggereert dat diverse gigabytes aan gegevens zijn geüpload vanaf de computers van slachtoffers.

Veelvoorkomende toepassingen en websites die werden bespioneerd, zijn accounts van Gmail, Hotmail, Yahoo! Mail, ICQ, Skype, Google+ en Facebook. Ook werd surveillance uitgevoerd op geïntegreerde ERP/CRM-systemen en financiële managementsystemen.

PC-Active # 260
Wie meer wil weten over de cyberoorlog in het Midden-Oosten: het nieuwe nummer van PC-Active beschrijft alle achtergronden van de Flame- en Stuxnet-malware. Ook schetsen we een worst case scenario: wat gebeurt er als Iran onze infrastructuur aanvalt? Over dit laatste artikel schreef Leon Krijnen van Dutch Cowboys:

"Koen Vervloesem schetst een realistische en indringende toekomstvisie van een cyberoorlog zoals die zich ook in Nederland zou kunnen afspelen. Het scenario is opgebouwd na een studie van alle beschikbare actuele data, op basis van een diepgaande kennis van hacking skills. En inderdaad: het las als een kruising tussen een thriller van (Tom, red.) Clancy en een geopolitieke analyse van Stratfor, met veel informatie over lekke SCADA-systemen en het laatste nieuws over het Echelon-spionageprogramma."

http://www.pc-active.nl/achtergrond/207825-neemt-iran-wraak-na-stuxnet-en-flame.html

[Lex]

Panetta Accelerates Stennis Carrier Strike Group Deployment

WASHINGTON, July 16, 2012 – The Navy will deploy the aircraft carrier USS John C. Stennis and its strike group four months early and shift its destination to the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility, DOD officials said here today.

The deployment late this summer is in response to Central Command's requirement for an extended carrier presence, Pentagon Press Secretary George Little said. The move affects 5,500 sailors aboard the Stennis and the Aegis cruiser USS Mobile Bay.

Last week, Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta approved a request from Central Command commander Marine Corps General James N. Mattis to accelerate Stennis' deployment. "The decision will help support existing naval force requirements in the Middle East and reduce the gap caused by the upcoming departure of the USS Enterprise Strike Group," Little said. "It is in keeping with our long-standing commitments to the region."

Aircraft carrier strike groups provide commanders with ample and flexible air assets to enhance interoperability with partner nations and maintain strong military-to-military relations as well as respond to a wide variety of contingencies, Little said.

The Bremerton, Wash.-based Stennis strike group was due to deploy at the end of the year to U.S. Pacific Command. The group returned from duty in the Middle East in March.

The accelerated deployment to the Central Command area of responsibility is not aimed at any specific threat. "In keeping with Centcom's requirements, this is a very important region for our defense strategy," Little said. "We've had a presence in the region for decades and we have a range of interests that this extension of our capabilities will support."

Nor, he said, is the deployment a direct response to tensions with Iran. The U.S. military is "always mindful of the challenges posed by Iran, but ... this is not a decision based solely on the challenges posed by Iran," Little said.

Currently the USS Enterprise and USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike groups are deployed to U.S. Central Command. The USS Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group is due to relieve the Lincoln group shortly. The Stennis group will relieve Enterprise.

The Navy continues to operate at a high operational tempo in order to meet U.S. security needs around the world,. "Our deployment strain is as great as or greater today than it has been at any time in the past 10 years," a Navy official said.

Sailors and their families have been informed of the change, Little said. Navy officials looked at a wide range of options to ensure Navy commitments and combatant commander mission requirements are met and to lessen the impact of schedule changes.

The carrier strike group will be ready to deploy even given the accelerated timeline, Little said. "The U.S. Navy is well-equipped to ensure our sailors are trained and ready for this deployment," he said.

Navy leaders understand the operational and personnel impacts this accelerated deployment will have. These include training cycle adjustments, crew and family uncertainty and reductions to quality of life port visits.

As more information becomes available, the Navy will release it, officials said, noting defense leaders are "committed to keeping sailors and their families informed about current and future deployments to the best of our ability."


By Jim Garamone
American Forces Press Service

[jurrien visser (JuVi op Twitter)]

Clinton voert de druk op Iran op tijdens haar bezoek aan Israël

16 juli 2012

Hillary Clinton, de Amerikaanse minister van Buitenlandse Zaken, heeft tijdens haar bezoek aan Israël gezegd dat de Verenigde Staten "alle middelen binnen hun politieke macht" zullen inzetten om te voorkomen dat Iran een nucleair wapen ter beschikking krijgt.

Ook noemde Clinton de voorstellen die Iran heeft gedaan tijdens gesprekken met diverse wereldleiders "non-uitgangspunten", zo schrijft persbureau Reuters vanavond. De minister deed haar uitspraken vandaag aan het einde van haar overleg met Israëlische en Palestijnse leiders, waaronder de Israëlische premier Benjamin Netanyahu.

Ze benadrukte dat de VS sterk de voorkeur geven aan diplomatieke oplossingen om de impasse te beëindigen die veroorzaakt wordt door de westerse angst dat Iran nucleaire wapens aan het ontwikkelen is:


"Iran heeft nog de tijd en de gelegenheid de juiste beslissing te nemen, maar de voorstellen die we tot dusver van het land hebben gezien zijn eigenlijk non-voorstellen."

Militaire aanwezigheid versterkt in de Perzische Golf

De VS hebben de afgelopen tijd hun militaire aanwezigheid in de Perzische Golf al versterkt om een aanval op Iran te kunnen uitvoeren als het conflict met Iran over het nucleaire programma van het land escaleert, zo bleek eerder deze maand.

De Amerikanen hebben onder meer marineschepen naar de Perzische Golf gestuurd die een eventuele blokkade van de Straat van Hormuz, de belangrijke doorvoerroute voor olie uit Saoedi-Arabië en andere Golfstaten, door Iran onschadelijk kan maken. Ook zijn sinds het einde van het voorjaar het aantal F22- en F-15-gevechtsvliegtuigen op hun luchtmachtbases in de Golf vergroot.

De Amerikaanse militaire opbouw in de Perzische Golf zou ook een belangrijk signaal zijn richting Israël, dat nog sterker dan de VS zelf bevreesd is voor het nucleaire programma van Iran. De Israëlische regering heeft de afgelopen jaren regelmatig gedreigd Iran aan te vallen als de internationale gemeenschap het land niet met diplomatie of sancties kan dwingen te stoppen met het verrijken van uranium. Israël en de VS verdenken Iran van het bouwen van atoomwapens, hoewel Iran zelf altijd ontkend heeft te streven naar het bezit van kernwapens.

http://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2012/07/16/clinton-voert-de-druk-op-iran-op-tijdens-haar-bezoek-aan-israel/

[Harald]

Israel's First Strike on Iran's Nuclear Facilities – Part 2

The Strike: Part 2 of a scenario for the first Israeli air strike on Iran's nuclear weapons program

In the first part of this series, we described the strike package of fighters and supporting aircraft making the first attack in Israel's air campaign against the Iranian nuclear weapons program.

Where are they going? Isfahan. Why not Natanz? After all, that's the famous, underground, heavily defended uranium enrichment facility that's always in the news.

The Iranians are pursuing two paths to a nuclear weapon: The uranium route and the plutonium route. Natanz, Fordow, and possibly other enrichment facilities are on the uranium path, increasing the concentration of U235 to weapons grade levels. The Arak nuclear reactor (still not operational) will serve as a source for the plutonium option.

But there are several steps on either path. Yellowcake uranium must be converted to uranium hexaflouride gas (UF6) that the centrifuges can use, and the enriched gas must then be processed to uranium metal to be fabricated into bomb components. The Arak reactor uses fuel made from uranium dioxide (UO2). After it has been used in the reactor, the spent fuel must be chemically treated to extract the Pu238. All of these processes are performed at one place: Isfahan.

Google Map of the facilities at Isfahan and the surrounding area, illustrating the need for precision munitions.

The complex at Isfahan is made up of three facilities vital to nuclear weapons development: The Uranium Conversion Facility, where yellowcake is processed to UF6 and UO2, the Fuel Manufacturing Plant, where UO2 is converted to reactor fuel, and the Zirconium Processing Plant. This not only provides zirconium used by the Fuel Manufacturing Plant, it specializes in refining, smelting, and machining exotic metals. It would extract the uranium or plutonium and make it into bomb components.

These three industrial-level installations are located next to each other, are completely exposed (nothing buried, no concrete roofs), and have only half or a third of the defenses present at Natanz. Hitting Natanz first is a "sucker play."

The Isfahan defenses include an elderly S-200 (SA-5 Gammon) site nearby, two I-Hawk batteries about a dozen kilometers to the west and north, a Tor-M1 (SA-15 Gauntlet) battery, and a mix of 35mm and 23mm guns.

There are thirty-one structures at the three facilities that are worth bombing. Most need to be serviced with two or three bombs to be completely destroyed, and the raid has one hundred and forty-four weapons. That sounds like overkill, but even PGMs don't work every time. Against targets of this size, they have an 80 percent chance of hitting, so four per target is not out of line.

During the transit, the F-16s are electronically silent. When they reach Delek Station, they refuel silently as well. It's not easy, but possible with proper training.

By the time the raiders finish refueling, the commander on the Shavit will have executed his Suter attack. If it goes well, he can shut down some or all of the SAM and radar sites along the raid's path. Or he can order the raid to abort, if the defenses have somehow been alerted.

After they leave the refueling point, the raiders cross the Saudi coast. The defense suppressors, hitting targets up to fifty miles away from the raid's path, break off from the main raid now. They'll execute their part of the mission, then return home on their own. The fighter escorts fan out as well, radars still off but in position so that they can get their shots before any interceptors are in range of the strikers.

The raiders now descend to stay below the horizon of the Iranian radars. Whether or not the Suter attack has been successful, if Iranian radar doesn't see them, the Iranians won't react.

There's a temptation to go to full military power, to minimize the time they spend in Iranian airspace, but full military triples their fuel consumption, for a speed increase of 130 knots, or just 25 percent. The Sufas can't go supersonic with their ordnance and drop tanks, and low altitude does enough damage to their fuel consumption. Besides, since the Shavit is listening in, the Israelis will know about any detections as soon as the Iranians do.

Flying at a few hundred feet above ground level, their radars are still off.  Their fighter escort is a little higher, flanking them on each side. The route is mostly scrubby desert, rising from sea level near the coast to about two thousand meters inland. A series of ridgelines lays perpendicular to their path, a low part of the Zagros mountain chain. It's sparsely settled, and there are few lights at night marking the landscape.

It's three hundred nautical miles from the Delek Station to Isfahan, or about thirty-five minutes' flight time. During this time, the Iranians will begin to suffer cyber attacks and diversionary raids. For instance, powered decoys are launched in the direction of Tehran. The goal is to confuse and distract.

At seventy miles and ten minutes from the target, and cued by the Shavit, the close-in defense suppressors climb until they're above the Iranian radar horizon. They may or may not be visible to Iranian radar, but it doesn't matter. They loft HARM antiradar missiles pretuned to the Iranian radars' frequencies. Any radiating surveillance or fire control radar will collect one or two missiles. Planes that have fired all their HARMs join the fighter escort. Those that still have HARMs orbit on electronic overwatch.

The HARMs hit two minutes later, and if the defenders weren't awake before, they are now. It takes a few minutes for the gun crews to fully man their weapons, but they put up a storm of fire. Few of the 35mm guns are (or were) radar-guided, and none of the 23mm are. All they can do is shoot into their assigned zone and hope somebody flies through it.

The strikers never get close to the guns. They're already climbing. This is the only time since takeoff they've used full military power, to gain speed and altitude as they zoom to medium altitude. Guided by their nav systems and cued by their HUDs, wave after wave of Israeli pilots release their weapons, lofting them toward the target, then pull back on the stick in a precise Immelman turn, rolling level onto an outbound course. The lob-toss delivery is the optimal method for delivering GPS-guided ordnance. Without coming closer than twelve miles to the target, the entire strike is outbound before their bombs even reach the target.

There are four Tor-M1 vehicles protecting Isfahan, each with its own search and fire control radars and eight Gauntlet missiles. When the guns start firing, the crews light off their radars, and they're on line in seconds. Electronically netted though a battery command vehicle, they can cooperate to make sure they don't engage the same targets.

The Israelis detect the signals, but by the time they launch their HARMs, all four SAM vehicles are firing.

The Tor missile only has a range of six nautical miles, but they aren't after the retreating Israeli aircraft, or even the defense suppression planes, orbiting safely out of range. The Tor's radar is good enough to spot and engage the incoming PGMs. Each vehicle can shoot at two targets at once, and they devote one guidance channel to the incoming HARMs and the other to the PGMs. Two manage to shoot down the HARMs coming at them, and one of the remaining two HARMs misses. One vehicle is lost, but the first thirty-second exchange of fire has allowed the Tor battery to destroy three of the PGMs.

Like they should have done in the first salvo, the Israelis now fire two HARMs at each remaining launcher, killing all three vehicles, but several more PGMs are also gone.

Outbound and clear of the defenses, the raid begins the hour and a half flight back to base. They're up at high altitude now, for best fuel efficiency. They're almost in the clear, but the Iranians have prepared a going-away party.

http://www.defensemedianetwork.com/stories/israels-first-strike-on-irans-nuclear-facilities-part-2/

[Harald]

Israel's First Strike on Iran's Nuclear Facilities – Part 1

Inbound: Part 1 of a scenario for the first Israeli air strike on Iran's nuclear weapons program

The Eitans take off first. They're the slowest, only 220 knots flat out, and for best endurance, they'll cruise at 180 knots. It's 800 miles to their stations, just outside the range of Iranian air defense radar, south of the Saudi coast of the Persian Gulf.

Operated by the 210th Squadron of the Israeli Air Force at Tel Nof airbase, the Eitan (Hebrew for "steadfast") is a big UAV, with a twenty-six meter wingspan. It has a reduced radar signature, although it's probably not stealthy. It can carry different payloads: EO/IR imagers, synthetic aperture radar, ELINT or COMINT gear.

The two aircraft taking off now, at H-minus six hours, will relieve two already on station over Saudi airspace. Those birds carried ELINT and COMINT gear, monitoring Iranian radar and communications. At this point, there should be no surprises, but they'll keep watch all the same.

The four-and-a-half hour flight there barely dents the Eitan's twenty-four hour endurance. On-board satellite communications allow controllers to monitor the relief and make sure both new aircraft are good to go.

The tankers have to take off early as well. The refuel point, "Delek Station," is located just short of the IP, over Saudi territory, but close to the coast.

The Shavit Special Electronic Missions Aircraft (SEMA), based on a Gulfstream business jet, would likely be an integral part of any attack. 
The Saudis, like all the Persian Gulf nations, do not want the Iranians to have nuclear weapons, but they lack the ability to physically stop development. If the Iranians get close to actually assembling a bomb, the Saudis might agree to an Israeli campaign to destroy their nuclear program, especially if the Israelis offer a significant political concession as part of the deal.

That agreement allows the Israelis to operate freely over their "associate's" territory without the risk of being intercepted, or even reported. A reasonable, if inconvenient Saudi proviso is that Israeli aircraft cannot operate from Saudi bases.

The first Israeli raid is a big one, four squadrons, and will need eight of Israel's nine Boeing 707 tankers to refuel it. The ninth one was only purchased in 2010, a Boeing 707 airframe converted by Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI). They will be wheels-up from Nevatim airbase at H-minus four hours.

Next to take off, at H-minus three hours, is a single Shavit aircraft, also flying from Nevatim. The 120th Nachson ('Pioneer") squadron operates the Shavit ("Comet") Special Electronics Mission aircraft. That uninformative title describes a Gulfstream G550 business jet converted by IAI to carry SIGINT and ELINT gear, a communications suite, and space for a command staff. It can monitor and control the Eitan UAVs launched earlier, as well as all the aircraft involved in the raid.

At 480 knots, the Shavit will be on station in two hours, but the raid commander is already working – tracking the strikers' preparations and probably holding the hands of some nervous government officials.

It will also make the first offensive move in the Israeli attack on Iran. The "special mission" in its name comes from the ability to make Suter attacks. The term "Suter" comes from a United States program called Senior Suter, which is in turn part of another program called Big Safari, which is all about attacking an enemy's information systems.

By feeding Iranian radar and communications antennas false data, the electronic attackers create fake contacts, delete real ones, insert false instructions, and possibly even crash the entire air defense network. At a minimum, a successful Suter attack allows the Israelis to see the status of the Iranian air defenses.

It's a Jedi mind trick, cyber-style: "These aren't the planes you're looking for." If the Israelis do their jobs really well, the Iranians won't even know they're being hacked until it's too late.

Since the Shavit can monitor Iranian radar and communications directly, the two Eitan UAVs carry a different payload: electronics designed to support the intrusion effort by either locat­ing emitters or transmitting signals at close range, without risking the Shavit directly.

The strikers, four squadrons of F-16I Sufas, take off half an hour after the Shavit. Slowed by ordnance and drop tanks, they cruise at 520 knots. It takes them an hour and a half to reach Delek Station, then half an hour to refuel. Because the target is just over 1,100 nautical miles (nm) away, the Sufas cannot carry a full load of ordnance – just two SPICE 2000 PGMs, as well as three drop tanks, targeting and navigation pods on the inlet stations, and two AIM-120 AMRAAMs on the wingtips.

Unlike most countries, Israeli squadrons have 24 planes instead of 12, so this first raid in the Israeli campaign will be sending 96 aircraft into Iranian airspace.

They aren't all strikers. As insurance, in case the Suter attack is not completely effective, eight F-16s are armed with HARM missiles, decoys, and cluster munitions. They will suppress the enemy defenses in the general area, knocking out radars, command centers, and SAM batteries that could threaten the incoming raid. If the Suter attack is effective, they will either accompany the raid all the way to the target or perhaps prepare the way for the second attack tomorrow.

Another eight Sufas are dedicated fighter escorts. Instead of PGMs, they each carry four AMRAAMs and two Python 5 AAMs. With a range of 44 nautical miles, the AIM-120C-5 missiles they carry outrange everything in the Iranian inventory. They're not as good as the "D" model AMRAAM (60 nm) used by the U.S., but the best the Iranians can put up is the Russian-made R-27R [AA-10 Alamo] with a range of 29 nm. With luck, the escort fighters won't even have to use afterburner, which would be a good thing so far from home.

Finally, eight F-16s will be assigned to suppress the local defenses at the target. They also carry HARM missiles and a Sky Shield Jamming pod. Thanks to electronic reconnaissance, the Israelis know which SAMs are operating near the target and what their operating patterns are.

Of the 96 fighters, 72 will carry ordnance, while another twenty-four support and protect the rest. Altogether, the raid will be able to bring 144 precision-guided munitions to the target.

http://www.defensemedianetwork.com/stories/first-strike-on-irans-nuclear-facilities-part-1/

[Tanker]

Waarom graven ze geen kanaal dwars door die punt heen ? Zou een optie kunnen zijn....

[Elzenga]

Het zal voor Iran niet zo moeilijk zijn deze pijplijn te saboteren. Al zal dit natuurlijk een sterk escalerend effect hebben en een directe aanval zijn op UAE grondgebied.

[Lex]

UAE starts up pipeline to bypass Strait of Hormuz

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — The United Arab Emirates on Sunday inaugurated a much-anticipated overland oil pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, giving the OPEC member insurance against Iranian threats to block the strategic waterway.
The 380-kilometer (236-mile) Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline snakes across western desert dunes and over the craggy Hajar mountains to the city of Fujairah on the UAE's Indian Ocean coast, south of the strait.



Until now, all Emirati exports were loaded in the Gulf and then sailed out through Hormuz. Once it is running at full capacity, the pipeline could allow the country, OPEC's third biggest exporter, to ship as much as two-thirds of its peak production through the eastern port city.
It is designed to carry at least 1.5 million barrels a day of crude, though capacity is expected to eventually rise to 1.8 million barrels daily.
Efforts to bring the long-awaited export route online have gained increased urgency in recent months because of repeated threats by Iranian officials to close Hormuz if the country's own exports are blocked.
The narrow strait is patrolled by Iranian warships as well as by the U.S. Navy and its allies. It is the export route for about 17 million barrels of oil a day, or a fifth of the world's oil supply.
The chairman of Iran's Joint Chiefs of Staff said Sunday that Tehran has a contingency plan to close the key route, though any decision to shut it rests with the country's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Gen. Hasan Firouzabadi's comments come two weeks after the European Union enforced a total oil embargo against Iran. The move is part of a series of sanctions meant to force Tehran to halt its uranium enrichment program. The West suspects Iran is aiming to build nuclear weapons. Iran denies the charge.
Emirati officials quietly began filling the new pipeline with oil on June 30, according to the UAE embassy in Washington. A statement from the embassy said the project underscores the U.S. ally's "commitment to ensuring the reliable and safe delivery of crude oil ... to global markets."
Officials including the Emirates' energy minister gathered in Fujairah for the formal inauguration of the pipeline, said Mohammed Saif al-Afkham, the director general of Fujairah municipality.
The International Petroleum Investment Co., the state-run company behind the project, confirmed that the pipeline became operational with the first commercial shipment being loaded onto a tanker for export.
The U.S. ambassador to the UAE attended the inauguration, underscoring the project's strategic significance. Ambassador Michael H. Corbin called the launch "a historic step in establishing multiple routes for the vital flow of oil from the Arabian Peninsula."
Although several Gulf Arab oil and gas producers fear a shutdown of the strait could block exports, only the UAE and Oman have coastlines on the Indian Ocean side of the strait. Saudi Arabia also can avoid Hormuz by shipping its Gulf fields' oil output through ports on the Red Sea, but it would have to significantly improve its transport infrastructure to get its full production out.

AP,
Jul. 15 1:19 PM EDT

[Lex]

Iran top leader one to decide on Strait of Hormuz

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) -- The chairman of Iran's Joint Chiefs of Staff says the decision over whether Tehran would block the strategic Strait of Hormuz, the passageway through which a fifth of the world's oil flows, rests in the hands of the country's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Gen. Hasan Firouzabadi says Iran has a contingency plan to close the key route, but Khamenei, as commander in chief of the armed forces, would have to make the final decision.

Firouzabadi's comments come two weeks after the European Union enforced a total oil embargo against Iran for its refusal to halt its uranium enrichment program. His comments were reported by the semi-official Fars news agency Sunday.

Iran's Revolutionary Guard has previously warned that Tehran would order the closure if the country's oil exports were blocked.

AP,
Jul 15, 4:44 AM EDT