Spanning(en) rond Iran

[jurrien visser (JuVi op Twitter)]

The Ticking Clock Of Iran's Nuclear Threat

Saturday, February 18th 2012 11:45

The chatter over the possibility of an Israeli pre-emptive strike against Iran's nuclear programme is reaching fever pitch in London and Washington.

President Barack Obama has dispatched his National Security Advisor to Jerusalem for talks amid growing concern among US officials that Israel will launch an attack before the end of the year.

At the same time, British Foreign Secretary William Hague has warned that the any military action against Iran would have "enormous downsides".

So the race is on to bring Iran to heel through diplomatic pressure and sanctions against the backdrop of a very loud ticking clock.


Iran has indicated that it is ready for talks. But its willingness to pursue negotiations, after a week in which President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad proudly and defiantly trumpeted his country's nuclear achievements, is in doubt.

His display of Iran's new domestically produced uranium enrichment centrifuges and nuclear fuel rods was a deliberately provocative move at a time of rising tensions.

The question remains as to whether it was a negotiating ploy or a sign that Iran is intent on defying the world at all costs.


Israel has made it clear that it will not allow Iran to develop a nuclear weapon that would threaten the Jewish State.

What is still unclear is just how long it is prepared to wait.

Israeli and western intelligence suggests that Iran is already approaching the point of "invulnerability" where a military strike on its nuclear facilities would be ineffective.

Key elements of the programme - including uranium enrichment - have been moved to the underground facility near Qom where even a bunker busting bomb may not harm them.

Israel knows it needs to be seen to be giving sanctions time to work but it also cannot afford to delay too long.


US officials believe Israel is working towards a strike in September or October.

It is far from ideal timing for President Obama who would prefer to focus on trying to get re-elected in November rather than becoming embroiled in another conflict in the Middle East.

The US and UK seem to be eager to send a message to Tehran that they are struggling to "hold back" Israel.

It could be the stick to speed up Iran's compliance. But the threat seems to be real.

http://www.jackbristol.com/news/international-news/the-ticking-clock-of-irans-nuclear-threat-16172460/

[jurrien visser (JuVi op Twitter)]

Obama sends top security aide to Israel as tension builds over nuclear Iran

A senior US security official arrived in Israel on Saturday as international tension over Iran's nuclear development reached an all-time high.

By Phoebe Greenwood in Tel Aviv

1:56PM GMT 18 Feb 2012

Tom Donilon, the US president's top security aide, arrived in Tel Aviv on Saturday morning for three days of meetings with Israeli defence and security chiefs.

While Washington claims the visit is simply the latest in a series of "regular, high level consultations between the United States and Israel", it came just days after coordinated attacks launched against Israeli embassies across the world provoked outrage in Jerusalem, which claims with certainly that Iran is responsible.

Israel'soption of launching a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities was expected to be the urgent topic of discussion during Mr Donilon's visit.

Hours before he arrived Iran's navy claimed its warships entered the Mediterranean to show its 'might' to regional countries.

In recent weeks, Israeli government officials have remained resolutely tight-lipped on their position on the Iranian threat but a string of high-ranking US officials have expressed the belief that Israel is preparing to act, with or without American support.

The rising tensions came as Foreign Secretary William Hague warned in Saturday's edition of The Daily Telegraph of the danger of a nuclear Cold War in the Middle East because of Iran's nuclear programme.

Mr Donilon's visit follows a trip by Mossad chief Tamir Pardo to Washington in December to discuss the possibility of military action against Iran, in which the security chief asked his counterparts in the CIA what the US reaction would be to an independent Israeli attack on Tehran.

In an interview with the New York Times late last year, Ehud Barak, Israel's minister of defence, suggested that an Israeli strike on Iran is all but inevitable.

General Uzi Eilam, a former director general of Israel's ministry of defence, revealed earlier this week that he may be "among the only ones [Israeli defence officials]" who does not think a strike is necessary.

He added that the perception of Iran's nuclear threat has, in his opinion, been overblown. "I don't accept that there has been an urgent deterioration [in attempts to prevent a nuclear Iran]," he said.

"I would be more reserved as far as ringing the big bell goes. But if a country like Iran is determined to develop a nuclear weapon, sooner or later they will get there. If a poor country like North Korea can do it, so can Iran. The question is: how soon can they get there?"

Iran remains adamant that its nuclear development is for peaceful purposes. It announced three significant advances this week, including the development of centrifuges capable of producing higher quality enriched uranium in a bigger quantities and more quickly that its old technology.

A letter written by Tehran expressing a willingness to discuss its nuclear activity was received with cautious optimism on Friday.

Victoria Nuland, the US State Department spokeswoman, said Washington and its allies were wary of "false starts" to a negotiation process.

"We've had negotiations that started and fizzled, or negotiations that ate up a lot of time and didn't go where they needed to go," Nuland said.

Israel is yet to react to the letter. Following the botched attempts to bomb Israeli embassy staff in Israel, Georgia and Thailand, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu urged the international community to "draw a red line" under Tehran's efforts to promote terrorist activity.

"Iran is the biggest exporter of terror in the world. Iran's terror operations are now exposed for all to see," Mr Netanyahu told Knesset members.

Leon Panetta, the US defence secretary, has indicated in his clearest terms yet that Washington will act to prevent a nuclear Iran and will not tolerate it if Iran attempts to block the Straits of Hormuz, a naval trade route supplying one fifth of the world's oil.

"We, the United States, have all options on the table," he said.

"If you're a nation that wants to be part of the international family of nations, then join it... Join us in an effort to try to diplomatically reduce your efforts in terms of nuclear capability," Panetta said.

"So that pressure needs to continue, and Israel has been part of that. My hope is that Israel will be part of that international effort to keep the pressure on. That's the most effective way to isolate Iran and to keep the pressure on," he added.

Alain Juppe, the French foreign minister, said on Thursday that a two-day visit to Iran by top UN nuclear watchdog officials scheduled would help determine whether Tehran was serious about tackling international concerns.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/israel/9090538/Obama-sends-top-security-aide-to-Israel-as-tension-builds-over-nuclear-Iran.html

[jurrien visser (JuVi op Twitter)]

UK FM: Attack on Iran has 'enormous downsides'

RAPHAEL SATTER, Associated Press

LONDON (AP) — An attack on Iran would carry huge costs, Britain's foreign minister warned Saturday.

British Foreign Secretary William Hague said in a newspaper interview that while Iran's suspected drive for atomic weapons could lead to a dangerous nuclear standoff in the Middle East, he favored more time to let diplomacy and economic pressure run its course.

Hague told the right-leaning The Daily Telegraph that striking at Iran's disputed nuclear program would have "enormous downsides."

"We are very clear to all concerned that we are not advocating military action," he said.

Tensions over Iran's nuclear program are running high. Israel, the U.S., Britain and others suspect that the Islamic Republic is using the program as cover for the manufacture of atomic weapons and observers fear that a pre-emptive strike may be in the works. Recent attacks on Israeli diplomats in Thailand, Georgia and India have increased the pressure, with Israel accusing Iran of being behind the assaults.

Hague said that allowing Iran to proceed with its nuclear program unchecked would lead to a Cold War-style arms race in the Middle East, with neighboring countries rushing to match what Hague said would be an Iranian arsenal.

"And so, the most serious round of nuclear proliferation since nuclear weapons were invented would have begun with all the destabilizing effects in the Middle East," he said. "That would be a disaster for world affairs."

Still, Hague endorsed European efforts to head off any nuclear weapons program through economic and diplomatic pressure.

"We support a twin-track strategy of sanctions and pressure and negotiations on the other hand," he said. "We are not favoring the idea of anybody attacking Iran at the moment."

Hague didn't spell out what the downsides to an attack would be, but former British ambassador to Tehran Richard Dalton told BBC television that they would likely include a drawn-out conflict, retaliatory strikes against U.S. facilities, terrorist attacks and serious disruption to world energy supplies.

"We couldn't assume that a strike would be over quickly," Dalton said Saturday. There would be large scale and long-lasting repercussions."


Read more: http://www.seattlepi.com/news/article/UK-FM-Attack-on-Iran-has-enormous-downsides-3341078.php#ixzz1mk8H8ayw

[jurrien visser (JuVi op Twitter)]

Panetta: 'We will not allow Iran to develop a nuclear weapon'

February 17, 2012 

WASHINGTON -- Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said Thursday that U.S. intelligence shows Iran is enriching uranium in a disputed nuclear program but that Tehran has not made a decision on whether to proceed with development of an atomic bomb.

Fears of a nuclear-armed Iran produced tough talk from Panetta and top intelligence officials, all of whom offered insights on the secretive regime in separate congressional hearings. Their testimony came amid increasing fears of a Mideast conflagration as Iran boasted of advances in producing nuclear fuel and threatened an oil embargo in retaliation for economic and diplomatic sanctions.

Israel has accused Iran of being behind recent attacks of its diplomats in Thailand, Georgia and India and has threatened military strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities.

"We will not allow Iran to develop a nuclear weapon," Panetta told the House Appropriations Committee's defense subcommittee. The Obama administration recently imposed sanctions on Iran's Central Bank, the latest round of penalties that have widespread support in Congress. The Treasury Department announced Thursday it was slapping sanctions on Iran's ministry of intelligence and security, asserting that it supports global terrorism, commits human rights abuses against Iranians and participates in ongoing repression in Syria.

Panetta and lawmakers insist the sanctions are working. But Israel is not unified on the issue. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the sanctions have not been effective; his defense minister and vice premier said the penalties have the Iranians panicking.

Despite the tough talk from Netanyahu, National Intelligence Director James Clapper and Defense Intelligence Agency chief Lt. Gen. Ronald Burgess said they do not believe that Israel has decided to strike Iran.

"The agency assesses Iran is unlikely to initiate or intentionally provoke a conflict," Burgess said.

http://www.freep.com/article/20120217/NEWS07/202170339/Panetta-We-will-not-allow-Iran-to-develop-a-nuclear-weapon-?odyssey=mod%7Cnewswell%7Ctext%7CFRONTPAGE%7Cs

[jurrien visser (JuVi op Twitter)]

Striking Iran's nuclear program is out of Israel's league

An attack on insane Iran is out of our league and could prove a tragedy for generations to come.
By Yoel Marcus

Our favorite duo, Bibi and Barak, operate like Sylvester Stallone's Rambo. Real macho men who win in every movie. Against his powerful enemies, Rambo sweats, gets a black eye or two, bleeds, but in the end he wins, to the appropriate background music. Rambo's weakness, at least early in his films, is that he doesn't seem to think ahead, even when he's bleeding after what happened to him. The viewers in the movie theater know that the blood is paint and in the end he'll be victorious.

Unlike a film, where the director decides on the script and happy end, we're living with lots of question marks. While the team that's called a government makes threats as Rambo does, it's not clear if it knows how the Iranian adventure will end. We're not the ones who can stop Iran's nuclear trance; all we can do is delay it, at the price of turning Israel into a target of Iranian revenge for generations to come.

Iran is endangering world peace, and by the very fact we think we have the power and option to take action against it, we're annoying the world. According to spokespeople for the U.S. administration, we're even endangering the world with our trigger-happy approach, as in a Western.

That's why when I read the passionate articles and politicians' battle cries calling on us to strike Iran, I don't know whether to laugh or cry. With all due respect to our exaggerated self-confidence, we're out of our league here. And it's no coincidence that the former Mossad chief and senior defense officials are warning our leaders against attacking Iran. Some of them are revealing that Iran has 200,000 long-range missiles, not to mention Syria's large arsenal of chemical weapons, which could fall into the hands of Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas.

When you read those figures, it's clear that Israel must think twice before taking suicidal steps against Iran. Israel is showing a great degree of arrogance; after all, even America couldn't stop the manufacture of nuclear weapons in North Korea, India and Pakistan, regions that are combustible to the whole neighborhood. And America is walking on tiptoe when it comes to Iran, whose lethal influence in the regions of oil and extremist Islam is liable to undermine world peace.

Before Benjamin Netanyahu and Ehud Barak lead us to an irreversible military operation, the cabinet must ask questions that receive unequivocal answers before each member votes.

1. Are we capable of stopping Iran's nuclear program entirely, as we did in Iraq by bombing the nuclear reactor before it was completed? And can we do it even though Iran learned its lesson from that operation and has dispersed its facilities deep inside rocky ground all over the country, and even the Pentagon has announced that none of its bombs penetrate so deep?

2. Is it possible that the attack will only delay the development of the bomb and lead us into a long war with Iran?

3. Are we prepared to have Jewish organizations and Israeli embassies all over the world become revenge targets (as in Argentina )?

4. Do we understand the significance of having dozens of missiles launched daily on Tel Aviv by Iran and its allies, which will empty the city, end tourism and spark a flight from the country?

5. Is the government aware of the global worldwide economic damage that would be caused by a unilateral Israeli operation and the reaction by an insane Iran?

6. What price is Israel ready to pay in its relations with the United States after an attack without U.S. consent or coordination?

7. Until the final screw is turned in the Iranian bomb, not only Israel but the entire free world is in danger. If we want to be part of the sane and free world, we must strive to reach an agreement as soon as possible with the Palestinians, in coordination with the United States and Europe.

An attack on insane Iran is out of our league and could prove a tragedy for generations to come.

http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/opinion/striking-iran-s-nuclear-program-is-out-of-israel-s-league-1.413388

[jurrien visser (JuVi op Twitter)]

Iran unlikely to abandon suspected nuclear weapons program: U.S. intelligence

Reuters Feb 17, 2012 – 1:06 AM ET | Last Updated: Feb 17, 2012 1:12 AM ET
By Tabassum Zakaria

WASHINGTON — U.S. intelligence agencies predict Iran will respond if attacked but is unlikely to start a conflict, and they believe Israel has not taken a decision to strike Iranian nuclear sites, a top U.S. intelligence official said Thursday.

With those comments, Lieutenant-General Ronald Burgess, director of the Defence Intelligence Agency, answered two key questions surrounding escalating tensions with Iran after the United States increased sanctions over its nuclear program.

Lt.-Gen. Burgess also said despite the ratcheting up of sanctions on Iran, the country's leaders are unlikely to abandon their suspected nuclear weapons program.

Iran responded to the new sanctions that target its central bank and oil exports by threatening to close a key oil shipping lane. There have also been concerns Israel might strike Iranian nuclear facilities and escalate tensions further.

The West suspects Iran's nuclear program is aimed at developing weapons, while Tehran says it is peaceful.

"Iran can close the Strait of Hormuz at least temporarily, and may launch missiles against United States forces and our allies in the region if it is attacked," Lt.-Gen. Burgess told a Senate armed services committee hearing.

"Iran could also attempt to employ terrorist surrogates worldwide. However, the agency assesses Iran is unlikely to initiate or intentionally provoke a conflict."

Asked bluntly whether intelligence agencies believed Israel had made a decision to attack Iran, he replied, "To the best of our knowledge Israel has not decided to attack Iran."

On the sanctions, the defence intelligence chief said Iran was nowhere near giving up its nuclear aspirations.

"Iran today has the technical, scientific and industrial capability to eventually produce nuclear weapons. While international pressure against Iran has increased, including through sanctions, we assess that Tehran is not close to agreeing to abandoning its nuclear program," he said.

Iran proclaimed advances in nuclear know-how on Wednesday, including new centrifuges that can enrich uranium much faster, a move that may hasten a drift toward confrontation with the West over its nuclear program.

U.S. intelligence agencies assess Iran's leaders have so far not decided to build a nuclear weapon.

"They are keeping themselves in a position to make that decision, but there are certain things they have not yet done and have not done for some time," James Clapper, director of national intelligence, said at the same hearing without providing details.

Mr. Clapper said U.S. and Israeli assessments generally are in agreement, and he was visiting Israel next week to discuss intelligence sharing.

The United States wants sanctions to pressure Iran into serious talks to curb its nuclear program.

While vowing no retreat from its atomic path, Tehran has also told world powers it wants to resume stalled talks quickly with "new initiatives" in hand.

© Thomson Reuters 2012

[VandeWiel]

Israelische propaganda om de eigen bewoners te laten zien wat er kan gebeuren wanneer Iran de bom zou hebben:

http://youtu.be/Xe7A8TUh1NU

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xe7A8TUh1NU&feature=player_embedded

Enge filmpjes over de bom. Helaas zeer overtuigend gedaan. Dan zie je dat angst creëren een van de sterkste vormen van propaganda is.

Eigenlijk is het al meer dan 25 jaar geleden dat er protesten waren tegen "de bom". Als je dit soort filmpjes ziet is het eigenlijk vreemd dat we het op dit moment normaal vinden dat deze wapens er zijn.   

[Jah]

Israelische propaganda om de eigen bewoners te laten zien wat er kan gebeuren wanneer Iran de bom zou hebben:

http://youtu.be/Xe7A8TUh1NU

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xe7A8TUh1NU&feature=player_embedded

[IPA NG]

Natuurlijk blijven de Duitsers achter Israel staan, al was het maar uit schuld gevoel. Ik vindt het alleen opvallend dat juist de Duitsers op dit moment in tijd komen met een dergelijk oproep (via het Pentagon), dus een gecoördineerde Amerikaans - Duitse (politieke) actie.

Alsof we aan de vooravond staan van een Israelische actie (eerder dan de veronderstellingen)

Dit... of de actie is niet bedoeld voor Israel maar simpelweg om de druk op Iran nog wat verder op te voeren.

Als ze echt druk willen uitoefenen zou men moeten dreigen geen enkele steun aan de Israëliërs te verlenen (of ze dat dan als het er op aan komt ook doen daargelaten). Dit versterkt juist hun zelfverzekerdheid ben ik bang.

[jurrien visser (JuVi op Twitter)]

Waarom?

De Duitsers zeggen zelf dat ze wat er ook gebeurt toch wel dogmatisch achter de Israëliërs blijven staan ook al schieten ze heel Iran plat, net als de rest van de NAVO landen overigens.

Natuurlijk blijven de Duitsers achter Israel staan, al was het maar uit schuld gevoel. Ik vindt het alleen opvallend dat juist de Duitsers op dit moment in tijd komen met een dergelijk oproep (via het Pentagon), dus een gecoördineerde Amerikaans - Duitse (politieke) actie.

Alsof we aan de vooravond staan van een Israelische actie (eerder dan de veronderstellingen)

Dit... of de actie is niet bedoeld voor Israel maar simpelweg om de druk op Iran nog wat verder op te voeren.

[IPA NG]

Waarom?

De Duitsers zeggen zelf dat ze wat er ook gebeurt toch wel dogmatisch achter de Israëliërs blijven staan ook al schieten ze heel Iran plat, net als de rest van de NAVO landen overigens.

[jurrien visser (JuVi op Twitter)]

German Defense Chief Urges Israel To Hold-Off On Iran Strike

By Staff|2/16/2012 4:07 PM

German Defense Minister Thomas de Maizièr said Thursday that he hopes Israel refrains from carrying out unilateral military action against Iran.

"We have to use every opportunity for [a] peaceful solution," de Maizièr said through an interpreter from the Pentagon briefing room.

De Maizièr added that Germany will ultimately stand by Israel, but the specifics of this support remain to be seen.

http://www.talkradionews.com/world-news/2012/02/16/german-defense-chief-urges-israel-to-hold-off-on-iran-strike.html

Worden nu de Duitsers zelfs voor het Amerikaanse karretje gespannen? In dat geval moet de angst voor een aanstaande Israelische aanval haast wel gebaseerd zijn op een reëele verwachting.

Of toch maar weer een beetje extra druk op de ketel om de Isreali maar niet in de verleiding te laten komen?

[Lex]

Gefixt, nu kunnen jullie blij het CIDI achter me aan sturen

Nee, nog steeds niet gefixt. Er is nog steeds sprake van multiple en incorrect citeren.

Lex
Algeheel beheerder

[IPA NG]

Gefixt, nu kunnen jullie blij het CIDI achter me aan sturen .

[Lex]

Geachte leden,

Er staan hier een aantal postings, die niet te begrijpen/onleesbaar zijn door het feit dat het citeren niet op de correcte wijze gedaan wordt.
Kapt. Rob heeft daar onlangs ook op gewezen.
Vzke uw postings aan te passen.

Lex
Algeheel beheerder