Arctic military rivalry could herald a 21st-century cold war

Gestart door jurrien visser (JuVi op Twitter), 06/06/2012 | 22:10 uur

jurrien visser (JuVi op Twitter)

The New Great Game: The Arctic Ocean

By James R. Holmes

7 november 2012

The Naval Diplomat turned coat again last week, with a Foreign Policy essay exploring the strategic implications of a navigable Arctic Ocean. A former chief climatologist of the U.S. Navy forecasts that the northern ocean, in effect an inland sea, will be ice-free for around a month annually within a few decades. If so, that will open up new vistas for commerce and geopolitical competition—for part of each year, at any rate. Climate change could partially liberate Russia from its eternal quest for year-round access to the sea, granting the Russian Navy new strategic mobility. The downside from Moscow's standpoint: Russia's northern frontier would be exposed a new to power projection from the sea.

Writing at midcentury, Yale scholar Nicholas Spykman recalled that British maritime supremacy once rested on the Royal Navy's dominance of the marginal and inland seas swaddling the Eurasian continent. For its part, the United States concentrated on preventing a would-be hegemon from gaining control of the "rimlands" of Western Europe or East Asia—and thereby obtaining a platform from which to menace the Western Hemisphere. U.S. foreign policy and strategy have already taken on British overtones in recent years. The United States' global standing has come to depend on maritime encirclement of Eurasia, just as British mastery depended on it a century ago.

Indeed, the 2007 U.S. Maritime Strategy designates the Indian Ocean as one focal point for U.S. nautical endeavor, the other being the Western Pacific. Washington evidently—and reasonably—considers the Atlantic Ocean a safe expanse. No longer is there much prospect of a domineering power's wresting away control of Western Europe. Hence the southward swivel of America's strategic eye of Sauron. But what about a navigable Arctic Ocean? New seaways there would add a northern vector to U.S. strategic calculations, supplementing the southern vector pointing at South Asia. The rimlands would ring all of Eurasia for the first time rather than providing Russia with an impassable rear area. The continent's entire circumference would be in play.

There's a lot to ponder here. American thinking about the rimlands will exhibit a north-south as well as its traditional east-west character should northern sea lanes open regularly and predictably. And then there's the interactive dimension. Clausewitz likens international conflict to wrestlers grappling for strategic advantage. True, the wrestlers might have to don parkas lest they incur frostbite. But the Arctic could become yet another arena for the great game.

http://thediplomat.com/the-naval-diplomat/2012/11/07/the-new-great-game-the-arctic-ocean/

jurrien visser (JuVi op Twitter)

#5
Citaat van: dudge op 06/06/2012 | 22:35 uur
Misschien is het maar beter als de grabbelaars gelijk krijgen, en er nooit meer oorlog/spanning komt.
Maar waarschijnlijk is het niet, dus laat ze maar snel wakker worden.

Tja, sinds de mensheid bestaat slaan ze elkaar de hersens in, wat zou er gebeurd zijn dat dit in de komende millenia niet zal gebeuren?

dudge

Citaat van: jurrien visser op 06/06/2012 | 22:14 uur
Kom maar op met een nieuwe koude oorlog... dat zet hopelijk de rem op het oeverloos grabbelen in de bijna lege defensie ruif.

Misschien is het maar beter als de grabbelaars gelijk krijgen, en er nooit meer oorlog/spanning komt.
Maar waarschijnlijk is het niet, dus laat ze maar snel wakker worden.

Reinier

Citaat van: jurrien visser op 06/06/2012 | 22:14 uur
Kom maar op met een nieuwe koude oorlog... dat zet hopelijk de rem op het oeverloos grabbelen in de bijna lege defensie ruif.
Ah wel nee joh. Betreft toch niet direct Nederland? En moeten alles Nederland de "hele" wereld redden? Eerst de Grieken, dan de Portugezen en Spanjaarden en Italianen en dan nu ook nog die blonde Noren?

En mocht het toch uit de klauwen lopen dan komen de Amerikanen ons toch helpen, toch???

Ik zeg meer geld naar arme bejaarden, de zorg, ontwikkelingshulp. Valt nog €7 mld te halen bij defensie!

Marruh, serieus. Hillen wilden toch gaan met JSF's poolen met de Noren. Zou een mooie test-case zijn..... :crazy:

jurrien visser (JuVi op Twitter)

Citaat van: www.guardian.co.uk Vandaag om 10:10
Arctic military rivalry could herald a 21st-century cold war

Kom maar op met een nieuwe koude oorlog... dat zet hopelijk de rem op het oeverloos grabbelen in de bijna lege defensie ruif.

jurrien visser (JuVi op Twitter)

Arctic military rivalry could herald a 21st-century cold war

Report warns that states such as Norway and Russia have military plans geared towards conflict rather than peacekeeping

Terry Macalister

guardian.co.uk, Tuesday 5 June 2012 18.12 BST

A buildup of military forces around the Arctic amid growing excitement about its oil wealth has the ability to undermine stability in the region, a research paper has warned.

According to the report – called Climate Change and International Security: the Arctic as a Bellwether – the military buildup is neither advisable nor a sensible peacekeeping measure, as it is increasingly designed for combat rather than policing.

The paper, published by the US not-for-profit organisation, the Centre for Climate and Energy Solutions (C2ES), warns: "Although the pursuit of co-operation is the stated priority, most of the Arctic states have begun to rebuild and modernise their military capabilities in the region. The new military programs have been geared towards combat capabilities that exceed mere constabulary capacity."

It adds: "States such as Norway and Russia are building new naval units designed to engage in high-intensity conflicts. While this capability may be understood as prudent, the ability of rivals to intimidate or subdue with sophisticated weapons systems could, if collegiality falters, undermine diplomacy and stability in the region."

The paper, authored by Rob Huebert from the University of Calgary and Heather Exner-Pirot of the University of Saskatchewan among others, said one of the biggest worries about the far north area was the enormous uncertainty of everything from the speed of sea ice melting to the price of commodities that could determine the pace of extraction.

A recent IMF report on peak oil warned that the price of oil was likely to double from today's price of $110 a barrel by the end of the decade.

The US Geological Survey has estimated that about a quarter of the world's oil and gas reserves could lie under the ice cap – encouraging a race for resources. Shell has applied for drilling rights in the Arctic off Alaska this summer and is also planning to make boreholes on behalf of other oil companies off Greenland.

Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev told the Seattle Times in 2008 that "our first and main task is to turn the Arctic into Russia's resource base of the 21st century."

His successor, Vladimir Putin, has just unveiled plans to give tax breaks to encourage companies to exploit new oil and gas fields, such as the Shtockman field in the Barents Sea.

Russia and Norway have recently signed a boundary agreement in the Barents Sea and undertaken joint military exercises, but the C2ES research paper says Norway "continues to take seriously its preparations for the defence of the High North, as it calls it, hosting five Operation Cold Response exercises since 2006."

The US has begun to increase the visibility of its submarines in the Arctic, while Canada has unveiled plans for an Arctic training centre in Resolute Bay for its army.

The authors of the Bellwether report argue that a first step towards easing the military pressure would be for states to talk about it. It suggests the Arctic Council, which currently has a prohibition on the discussion of security issues, is the place to start.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jun/05/arctic-military-rivalry-cold-war