Rusland's Expansie

[Huzaar1]

Ja blijkbaar dus niet. Australië heeft een deel zelfs al van onderdelen gestript en begraven in de woestijn.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/australia-literally-burying-its-doomed-nh90-helicopter-fleet

Het is een simpele rekensom:
Ga je reserveonderdelen verpatsen voor een fortuin of ga je er een fortuin in steken om die dingen weer inzetbaar te krijgen? Wellicht ook handig om te weten dat het veiligheid onderzoek rondom deze heli's nog loopt

Je krijgt evengoed geld als je ze naar Oekraine brengt, nog meer dan als je de reserveonderdelen verkoopt. Het is daarom alles behalve logisch.

[Benji87]

We zitten echt dicht op een potentiële WW3.
Die helis kunnen 1000den levens redden. En die kosten zijn prima te dragen.

Ja blijkbaar dus niet. Australië heeft een deel zelfs al van onderdelen gestript en begraven in de woestijn.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/australia-literally-burying-its-doomed-nh90-helicopter-fleet

Het is een simpele rekensom:
Ga je reserveonderdelen verpatsen voor een fortuin of ga je er een fortuin in steken om die dingen weer inzetbaar te krijgen? Wellicht ook handig om te weten dat het veiligheid onderzoek rondom deze heli's nog loopt

[pz]

Opinion: How many tanks does Russia have left?

https://kyivindependent.com/opinion-how-many-tanks-does-russia-really-have-left/

How many tanks does Russia really have left? This question has come up quite frequently in discussions, and it's simply impossible to find a precise answer – Russia's Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and General Staff chief Valery Gerasimov probably don't even know. But this doesn't deter us from trying to count Russia's tanks anyway.

Estimates on the number of tanks Russia has in storage vary greatly. For example, the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) estimated in 2022 that Russia had as many as 17,500 tanks. This number reportedly included 200 T-90s, 3,000 T-80s, 7,000 T-72s, 2,000 T-64s, 2,500 T-62s, and 2,800 T-55s, the numbers of which roughly correspond to the years that they came out. IISS' calculations are very inaccurate, however, as they're based on estimates of the number of tanks produced during the Soviet Union.

Estimates from IISS' 2023 "The Military Balance" yearbook are much more modest: approximately 2,000 tanks in service and up to 5,000 in storage. However, the report is only taking into account models including and newer than the T-62, first introduced in the early 1960s. Russia not only has hundreds of T-54s and -55s in storage, but it's already using them at the front in Ukraine! Interestingly, "The Military Balance" indicated in 2022 that Russia had as many as 13,700 tanks in storage, but it wasn't counting the T-54s and -55s then either.

A report published on Aug. 31, 2023, by Institut Action Résilience used OSINT to determine how many tanks Russia has in storage. Using satellite imagery taken between April and September 2021 and information derived from social networks, Institut Action Résilience made calculations for 10 of Russia's 22 main tank depots, which are estimated to house around 95% of the country's tanks.

Institut Action Résilience calculated that Russia has 5,538 tanks stored in open air (and thus visible via satellite), 4,347 of which the institute could identify by type. According to the report, these storage facilities also have storage depots that can house an estimated 1,960 vehicles. Taking into account the fact that some of these depots are not completely taken up by tanks, Russia has an estimated maximum of 7,000 tanks in storage – although around 6,000 is more likely.

Institut Action Résilience identified 750 T-80s, 1,945 T-72s, 1,239 T-62s, and 413 T-54 and -55s. Three-quarters of the tanks identified were produced before 1980. The situation with the T-64s is less clear, as Institut Action Résilience said it omitted them from the tally because a lack of necessary spare parts renders them unsuitable for service. It also omitted the T-90s, although there are likely some stored at the tank depots – maybe they were counted together with the T-72s?

The breakdown of where the various tank types are located by military district is also interesting. In the Western Military District, which borders Ukraine, there are more modern T-80U/UE-1s, and T-80BVs, T-80UDs, in addition to T-72s. In the Central District – older T-72s and remnants of the T-64s. In the Eastern Military District – some T-80s, the bulk of Russia's T-62s, and T-54 and -55s.

We should also pay attention to Russia's tank repair capabilities. There are currently 10 sizeable military equipment repair plants across the country, three of which are specifically for tank repair. Let's also not forget the Omsktransmash plant in southwestern Russia, which used to manufacture T-80s and now repairs and modernizes them.

According to Institut Action Résilience's estimates, Russia's tank repair plants are working a lot slower than Russian propaganda suggests. While Russian publications have claimed that the 103rd Armored Tank Repair Plant in Russia's Transbaikal Oblast repairs an average of 22-23 T-62s per month, ARI said the plant can only restore an average of eight per month. The Russian military received 40 T-62s at the start of March 2023 after starting repairs in October 2022.

The 61st Armored Repair Plant in Saint Petersburg repairs 30-60 tanks per year. The 163rd Armored Repair Plant in Krasnodar Krai, implementing previously concluded contracts, repaired 24 T-72 tanks and 100 BMP-2 tanks in 2021. The situation at Omsktransmash is highlighted by satellite imagery: In November 2022, 100 tanks were awaiting repair; In May 2023, the queue almost doubled. While the restoration time for one tank stored at a depot depends on how well it was preserved, tanks in poor condition can take three to four months each and could require cannibalizing other machines for parts.

Meanwhile, Institut Action Résilience estimates that Russia can produce around 390 tanks per year – a number that includes those modernized or restored at tank depots. This contradicts Russian sources that claim the country produced 700-800 tanks in 2022 and 1,500 in 2023. The quality of production is also falling due to sanctions.

Data from the Dutch OSINT defense website Oryx indicates that Russia has lost 2,619 tanks since the start of the full-scale invasion – 1,725 destroyed, 145 damaged, 205 abandoned, and 544 lost. The number is likely much higher. According to Institut Action Résilience, Russia will only be able to replenish its tank arsenal if events at the front in Ukraine stagnate. Maintaining the status quo at the front lines or a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive would only lead to the further shredding of Russia's tanks.

Editor's Note: The opinions expressed in the op-ed section are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the views of the Kyiv Independent.

Opmerking 1. Wat zeggen de NAVO analisten over dit onderwerp, heeft Rusland (meer) capaciteit om tanks te leveren en te upgraden uit bestaande bestanden? En natuurlijk opleiding en vervanging van bemanningen voor deze tanks, veel zijn uitgeschakeld en daardoor kennis en ervaring weg.

Opmerking 2. Gerasimov, is al sinds eind december niet meer in het openbaar gezien. Iemand een idee?

[Enforcer]

Misschien dat Polen Sikorsky's kan gaan leveren in de nabije toekomst.

[Benji87]

Goede update.

Even inzoomen: De steun aan Oekr is onderverdeeld in coalities. En er bestaan verschillende coalities met hetzelfde doel. Maakt het wat verwarrend soms.

Ieder land dat wil, kon/kan zich aansluiten bij een coalitie. Nederland zit er zover ik weet in een stuk of 6.

De zwaarste coalitie voor ons is die Oekrainse Luchtmacht naar NAVO model brengen. Dat gaat ons daar wel op de kaart zetten, Nld is lead nation.

Goede aanvulling 

Ook een reden voor Australië was dat de losse onderdelen flink geld opbrengen omdat er nog steeds een tekort aan reserve onderdelen is voor de NH90.

Dat plus het inzetbaar krijgen van de heli's zou blijkbaar een fortuin kosten

[Harald]

De Duitsers openen hiermee een nieuwe catagorie, vandaar. Maar ben het met je eens dat het allemaal wordt overdreven. Dat met Aus snap ik ook niet, maar wellicht is dit verboden door de fabrikant .

Ook een reden voor Australië was dat de losse onderdelen flink geld opbrengen omdat er nog steeds een tekort aan reserve onderdelen is voor de NH90.

[Huzaar1]

55 jaar oude heli's, nauwelijks inzetbaar, hoe kan dat nou als enorme escalatie worden benoemd?
En Australie verschroot ondertussen 45 moderne en geschikte heli's, triest.

De Duitsers openen hiermee een nieuwe catagorie, vandaar. Maar ben het met je eens dat het allemaal wordt overdreven. Dat met Aus snap ik ook niet, maar wellicht is dit verboden door de fabrikant .

[Huzaar1]

Goede update.

Even inzoomen: De steun aan Oekr is onderverdeeld in coalities. En er bestaan verschillende coalities met hetzelfde doel. Maakt het wat verwarrend soms.

Ieder land dat wil, kon/kan zich aansluiten bij een coalitie. Nederland zit er zover ik weet in een stuk of 6.

De zwaarste coalitie voor ons is die Oekrainse Luchtmacht naar NAVO model brengen. Dat gaat ons daar wel op de kaart zetten, Nld is lead nation.

[Benji87]

Even deze week kort samengevat:

De eerste berichten komen binnen dat de EU, buiten Hongarije om, een steun pakket van circa 50 miljard gaat goedkeuren volgende week. Het pakket voorziet in financiering voor 2024 tot en met 2027, dus zo'n 12,5 miljard oer jaar voor Oekraïne. Wat deze steun inhoudt is nog niet bekend.

In Amerika spelen de onderhandelingen rondom de financiering van fiscaal jaar 2024 nu hoog op. Zoals bekend willen de republikeinen extra geld voor grenscontroles bij deze begroting hebben. Daar is van de week nog wat extra olie op het vuur gegooid nu het hooggerechtshof heeft bepaald dat de regering prikkeldraad bij de grenzen van Texas weg mag halen. Biden lijkt nu echter wel te willen toegeven op de republikeinen hun eis zodat de steun voor Oekraïne er alsnog doorheen komt. Het lijkt erop dat we dus nog even geduld moeten hebben.

Verder maakt de WP (zie artikel hieronder) melding dat de de Verenigde Staten een koerswijziging willen doorvoeren in de strategie voor Oekraïne. Men wil nu meer defensief te werk gaan waarbij Oekraïne meer lange afstand wapens krijgt, Rusland vooral bezig gaan houden op de Krim en er meer geld richting de ontwikkeling van de oorlogsindustrie komt. De New York Times maakte hier eerder ook al melding van en gaf aan dat dit niet alleen vanwege het mislukte zomer offensief is maar ook om Oekraine in de Oekraine "trump proof" te krijgen.

Verder hebben coalitie landen op de 18e meeting van de Ukraine Defence contact Group weer de nodige steun toegezegd o.a Polen, Letland en Canada kondigden nieuwe pakketten aan. Tevens gaat men 3 coalities vormen die zich intensief gaan bezig houden met Oekraïne te voorzien van artillerie, IT support en de ontwikkeling van drones.

[Benji87]

U.S. war plans for Ukraine don't foresee retaking lost territory

The Biden administration is working on a long-term strategy for supporting Kyiv — despite the funding impasse in Congress. But those plans do not anticipate significant gains by Ukraine against Russia in 2024, officials say.

smarting from last year's failed counteroffensive in Ukraine, the Biden administration is putting together a new strategy that will de-emphasize winning back territory and focus instead on helping Ukraine fend off new Russian advances while moving toward a long-term goal of strengthening its fighting force and economy.

The emerging plan is a sharp change from last year, when the U.S. and allied militaries rushed training and sophisticated equipment to Kyiv in hopes that it could quickly push back Russian forces occupying eastern and southern Ukraine. That effort foundered, largely on Russia's heavily fortified minefields and front-line trenches.

"It's pretty clear that it will be difficult for them to try to mount the same kind of major push on all fronts that they tried to do last year," a senior administration official said.

The idea now is to position Ukraine to hold its position on the battlefield for now, but "put them on a different trajectory to be much stronger by the end of 2024 ... and get them on a more sustainable path," said the senior official, one of several who described the internal policymaking on the condition of anonymity.

The U.S. planning is part of a multilateral effort by nearly three dozen countries backing Ukraine to pledge long-term security and economic support — both out of necessity, given the disappointing results of last year's counteroffensive and the conviction that a similar effort this year would likely bring the same outcome, and as a demonstration of enduring resolve to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Each is preparing a document outlining its specific commitments spanning up to a decade in the future. Britain made its 10-year agreement with Ukraine public last week, signed by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv. It outlined contributions to "Maritime Security, Air, Air Defense, Artillery and Armor" as well as fiscal support and access to its financial sector. France is expected to be next, with an upcoming visit to Ukraine by President Emmanuel Macron.

But the success of the strategy depends almost entirely on the United States, by far Ukraine's largest donor of money and equipment, and coordinator of the multilateral effort. This spring the administration hopes to release its own 10-year commitment, now being compiled by the State Department with the blessing of the White House — assuming that President Biden's $61 billion request for supplemental Ukraine funding is approved by a recalcitrant Congress.

The shaky ground on which that assumption currently rests — with House Republicans appearing to dig in ever deeper in refusing the money — has worried both Western allies and Ukraine itself.

"Definitely the leadership and the engagement of the U.S. in the long term, but also in this very important phase, is paramount," a senior European official said. "The supplemental is a must-have to continue ... not only on the ground, but as a show of Western resolve ... to make [Putin] understand that he will not win."

"We wouldn't survive without U.S. support, it's a real fact," Zelensky said in a television interview last week.

Future-proofing Ukraine against Trump


According to U.S. officials, the American document will guarantee support for short-term military operations as well as build a future Ukrainian military force that can deter Russian aggression. It will include specific promises and programs to help protect, reconstitute and expand Ukraine's industrial and export base, and assist the country with political reforms needed for full integration into Western institutions.

Not incidentally, a U.S. official said, the hope is that the long-term promise — again assuming congressional buy-in — will also "future-proof" aid for Ukraine against the possibility that former president Donald Trump wins his reelection bid.

As the White House continues to try to persuade lawmakers, a second senior administration official emphasized that the strategy doesn't mean that the Ukrainians are just going to build their own defensive trenches "and sit behind them" all year. "There is still going to be swapping of territory" in small cities and villages with minimal strategic value, "missile launches and drones" from both sides, and Russian "attacks on civilian infrastructure," this official said.

Rather than the massive artillery duels that dominated much of the fighting in the second half of 2022 and much of 2023, the West's hope for 2024 is that Ukraine will avoid losing any more territory than the one-fifth of the country now occupied by Russia. Additionally, Western governments want Kyiv to concentrate on tactics where its forces have had greater recent success — longer-distance fires, including with French cruise missiles promised for delivery within the next few months; holding back Russia's Black Sea Fleet to protect naval transit from Ukraine's ports; and tying up Russian forces inside Crimea with missile strikes and special operations sabotage.

Lees verder op:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/01/26/ukraine-war-plan-biden-defense/

(Sorry, was te lang om te copy pasten  )

[Benji87]

Washington Post: Biden administration working on new strategy to support Ukraine

The Washington Post has reported that the Biden administration is working on a new strategy to support Ukraine, one that will focus on fending off new Russian advances and enhancing Ukraine's fighting capabilities and economy over the long term.

The US newspaper carried the article on Friday, and it cited senior administration officials.

The Post said the new strategy will de-emphasize winning back territory and focus instead on "helping Ukraine fend off new Russian advances while moving toward a long-term goal of strengthening its fighting force and economy."

The paper said this comes after disappointing results from last year's counteroffensive in Ukraine.

The US officials were quoted as saying that the new strategy will aim to "build a future Ukrainian military force that can deter Russian aggression" and "help protect, reconstitute and expand Ukraine's industrial and export base."

With the possibility of former President Donald Trump returning to the White House, one of the officials reportedly said the new strategy is expected to "future-proof" aid for Ukraine.

Trump has been complaining about the amount of aid the US has been sending to Ukraine. He has described the US contribution as an excessively heavy burden.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian officials say that the Russian defense ministry has provided them with the names of 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war it claims were on board the Russian military plane that went down on Wednesday. Russia has accused Ukraine of shooting down the aircraft.

But local media outlets have reported that Ukraine's military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov said, "We currently don't have evidence that there could have been that many people on board the aircraft." He reportedly indicated that Ukraine is carefully analyzing all available information regarding the incident.

Bron: https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20240128_04/

[Harald]

Germany to donate six Sea King helicopters to Ukraine

In a significant escalation of military aid, Germany announced its first direct delivery of aircraft to Ukraine: six Sea King helicopters slated for arrival in the second quarter of 2024. This move, unveiled by Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, marks a departure from previous German support focused on non-lethal supplies and training.

https://alert5.com/2024/01/25/germany-to-donate-six-sea-king-helicopters-to-ukraine/#more-98593

[Benji87]

Polen zegt nieuwe steun toe en beidde partijen gaan zich hard maken om de politieke tumult van de afgelopen maanden weg te nemen. Omvang van het pakket is nog onbekend

Zelenski: nieuw Pools wapenpakket voor Oekraïne na bezoek Tusk

De Oekraïense president Volodimir Zelenski heeft nieuwe wapenleveranties vanuit Polen aan Oekraïne aangekondigd.

"Er komt een nieuw bewapeningspakket uit Polen", zei hij maandagavond in zijn dagelijkse videotoespraak. Tijdens een bezoek van de Poolse premier Donald Tusk aan Kiev op maandag werd ook gesproken over de gezamenlijke productie van wapens om de defensiecapaciteit van Oekraïne te versterken.

Zelenski zei verder dat Oekraïense soldaten getraind worden in het gebruik van Poolse wapensystemen. Hij gaf geen details over de omvang van de wapenleveranties of de inhoud van het defensiepakket. Polen wordt beschouwd als een van de belangrijkste bondgenoten van Oekraïne.

Sinds het uitbreken van de oorlog met Rusland heeft Polen Oekraïne voorzien van veel wapens, waaronder tanks en straaljagers. Ook heeft het land veel Oekraïners opgevangen die zijn gevlucht om de Russische invasie, die bijna twee jaar geleden begon. "Het Poolse volk, de Poolse staat, is een van onze grootste supporters", zei Zelenski. "In Oost-Europa kunnen we de vrijheid alleen behouden als we die samen verdedigen."

Tusk, voormalig voorzitter van de EU-Raad, beloofde dat Polen het verzoek van Oekraïne om lid te worden van de Europese Unie in alle opzichten zou steunen. Een van de doelstellingen van zijn bezoek aan Kiev was om te bespreken hoe er meer westerse steun voor Oekraïne gemobiliseerd kon worden. Polen is lid van de NAVO.

Bron: Telegraaf.nl

[Benji87]

Ik kan je verzekeren dat niet alles openbaar wordt gemaakt. Ik kan helaas niet duidelijker worden hier.

Duitsers zijn nog gevoeliger met informatie gezien hun relatie met Rusland. Duitsland is de kraamkamer van de Oekrainse krijgsmacht aan het worden.

Ik moet je hierop maar gewoon even vertrouwen denk ik. Ik ben wel benieuwd naar wat het wegvallen van de Amerikaanse wapen leveranties betekent voor Oekraïne haar vermogen om een volgend offensief in de lente/zomer.

[Master Mack]

Duitsers zijn nog gevoeliger met informatie gezien hun relatie met Rusland. Duitsland is de kraamkamer van de Oekrainse krijgsmacht aan het worden.
[/quote]
Dat is een donders goede zaak. Wie weet als ze ooit bij de NAVO mogen aansluiten kunnen we ook NLD plaatsingen aldaar verwachten. Ik hoop dat ik dat nog mag meemaken.