Spanning(en) rond Iran

[Ros]

Dangerous game: 'US almost daring Tehran to strike first'

Iran is niet gek !.

[jurrien visser (JuVi op Twitter)]

Dangerous game: 'US almost daring Tehran to strike first'

Published: 14 July, 2012

With sanctions against Iran gradually showing their ineffectiveness, Washington is escalating the situation in the Persian Gulf, as if encouraging Tehran to attack first, a US politics professor told RT.

­Amid pressure mounting on Tehran, a major Indian company, United India Insurance Co., has agreed to provide insurance for tankers carrying oil from Iran. Insurances are vital for sea transportation. Without insurance, tankers are unable to deliver oil from one destination to another.

The decision of an Indian company means a serious blow to the effectiveness of the US sanctions against Iran in a bid to crank up the pressure over the country's nuclear activities. The sanctions target companies accused of breaching a European ban on buying oil from Tehran.

Simultaneously, to give their sanctions policies some military support, the US is sending fourth air carrier to the Persian Gulf region. It has also been announced that America deploys underwater drones to deal with sea mines Iran might plant in the Strait of Hormuz to block the vital route.

"The more warships the US moves [to the region], the more threatened Iran is going to feel and there is more chance of triggering some kind of mistake," explains Patricia DeGennaro, professor of politics at New York University.

She says the act of sending more warships to the region is a dangerous game of "dare".

"I don't know what they are going to achieve by putting more warships in the region. This is a very bad move. Maybe they are trying to make Israel feel safer, but in fact again that is a very dangerous game that is almost daring somebody to strike first," the professor believes.

­

'Mrs. Clinton should better promote peace instead of war'

A naval clash in the Persian Gulf region is very real, DeGennaro told RT, because military communications do not often go as they are expected to.

"The Iranian military is organized a bit differently than the American military. They can get orders not normally understood... within a context of a country being threatened."

"We should do more negotiations and more diplomacy," the professor concluded. "I'd like to see Mrs. [Hillary] Clinton lead the State Department as Secretary of State instead of really promoting more war in the region."

Western intelligence claims Iran might be just a year away from building a nuclear weapon, while Tehran denies allegations of developing nuclear power for military use. This confrontation need to be resolved given neither side wants to lose face, which means negotiations in the first place, believes Patricia DeGennaro.

"Let's sit down and talk before we start pointing weapons at each other, which should really facilitate a really large scale conflict in the region."

http://www.rt.com/news/us-provoke-iran-strike-180/

[jurrien visser (JuVi op Twitter)]

Iran tripling its fleet of mini–submarines and producing more sea mines

Iran July 12, 2012

By: Robert Tilford

Iran is rumored to have significantly ramped up production of mini-submarines, sometimes called "midget subs".

If true this could pose a serious threat to U.S. warships in the area.

I asked one U.S. Navy seaman on facebook about the threat from mini-subs and he said some interesting things off the record.

"Looking for small subs, that carry one or two frogmen and a couple of torpedo's in shallow water is unimaginably difficult . This is because the acoustics are so much more difficult to detect", he said.

In other words the smaller it is the harder it is to detect.

In addition Iran may also be doubling it sea mine production as well (see video: IRAN MILITARY HAVE 15000+ NAVAL MINES READY FOR CLOSE THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bczIxQRdwQ8 ).

The Iranians are clearly strengthening their asymmetric naval warfare capabilities, as opposed to trying to take on the US Navy directly.

See also: Iran's Doctrine of Asymmetric Naval Warfare - Naval Swarming Tactics http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z6zzNGHc78A

Meanwhile U.S. forces are also quietly preparing for war as well.

The U.S. has three aircraft battle groups in the region now with more ships arriving daily. Including four Avenger-class minesweepers arrived in Bahrain on June 24 of this year.

The Navy has also sent additional minesweeping helicopters called "Sea Dragons" to help assist in naval operations.

Sea Dragons are those really huge helicopters you may have seen on TV used to deliver bulk food supplies to Haiti as part of the relief effort...

If you have never seen a Sea Dragon and are curious what they look like (see video: U.S Navy MH-53E SEA DRAGON FROM HM-15 BAHRAIN http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wv1Gxp4pVfA ).

http://www.examiner.com/article/iran-tripling-its-fleet-of-mini-submarines-and-producing-more-sea-mines-1

[Enforcer]

Over 2 weken starten de Olympische Spelen. Dit soort grote evenementen zijn ook wel eens als cover gebruikt.

[jurrien visser (JuVi op Twitter)]

Het kan wel een "goed" moment zijn om dan te starten...  het wordt misschien niet verwacht..

O.a. 4 (!) carriers in de omgeving is niet echt onverwacht. Daarnaast zijn er in november president verkiezingen in de VS en (ook op dit forum gepubliseerd) de window of opportunity voor een aanval op Iran (zeker vanuit Israel) zou liggen tussen april en oktober.

[onderofficier]

Het kan wel een "goed" moment zijn om dan te starten...  het wordt misschien niet verwacht..

[dudge]

Breder denken, de meeste iraniërs willen denk ik geen oorlog, en zeker niet met ramadan.

[onderofficier]

Tijdens de Ramadan ?? ...

De Ramadan zal in 2012 waarschijnlijk beginnen op 20 juli 2012 en het einde van de Ramadan (ied al-fitr / suikerfeest) zal waarschijnlijk vallen op 19 augustus 2012.

Dat kan.
Dan mag men ook eten en drinken overdag, als men het maar later inhaalt.  (dat wordt aangemoedigt)

Er zijn verschillende redenen dat een moslim niet aan de ramandan kan houden. 
- zwangerschap
- vrouwen die ongesteld zijn
- soldaten in oorlog
- zieken
- jonge kinderen
- reizigers
- bedreiging voor de gezondheid / genezing van de ziekte in de weg staat.

[Harald]

War in August?

Tijdens de Ramadan ?? ...

De Ramadan zal in 2012 waarschijnlijk beginnen op 20 juli 2012 en het einde van de Ramadan (ied al-fitr / suikerfeest) zal waarschijnlijk vallen op 19 augustus 2012.

[jurrien visser (JuVi op Twitter)]

War in August? US sends fourth aircraft carrier and dozens of underwater drones towards Iran

Published: 13 July, 2012

The US Navy has unexpectedly dispatched a fourth aircraft carrier to the Persian Gulf, along with a fleet of underwater drones in what is being considered just the latest move in a series of escalations leading towards a potential war with Iran.

The deployment of dozens of small, unmanned submarine-like watercraft was confirmed by the Los Angeles Times this week, which cites military officials speaking on condition of anonymity.

This particular type of craft, unmanned SeaFox submersible, are reported to be sent to the Gulf so that the US military can detect and destroy any mines that may be planted in the waterway by Iranian officials if they escalate efforts to block the Strait of Hormuz, a strategically important narrow stretch of water that exists as an immensely important conduit for any resources being moved in or out of the Middle East.

The Times says that the subs, at only 4 feet long and fewer than 100 pounds apiece, can move at speeds up to six knots at depths of 300 feet. The price-tag is reported to be $100,000 each, which includes an intricate waterproof television camera and a homing sonar system. The US rush-ordered a shipment in May in a deal with Germany under the direct of Marine Gen. James Mattis, the top US commander in the Middle East. It is reported that a fleet of SeaFox subs were deployed overseas several weeks back, but has only been confirmed now.

The United States has already sent three massive aircraft carriers to the waterways outside of Iran, including the USS Enterprise, the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower and the USS Abraham Lincoln, and will now add the USS John C Stennis to that fleet in August. Unlike these behemoth ships equipped with billions worth of weaponry and service personnel, America's other new addition to the battlefront is invisible to those on land and can be controlled from anywhere in the world.

"In the Cold War, minesweeping warfare was a large part of what the Navy did, but we have lost a lot of our minesweeping capability," Christopher Harmer, a senior analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, tells the Times. "The SeaFox is a relatively simple, off-the-shelf system that we can put off our minesweepers but also any surface ship."

Harmer adds to the paper that although Iran has the capabilities of coming through with its threats of closing the strait, the latest addition to the United States Navy would make sure a blockade wouldn't last long.

"If they wanted to close the Strait of Hormuz, they could do it, but they would only be able to do it one time," he says.

The new fleet of SeaFox subs will accompany two massive aircraft carriers and a collection of F-22 fighter jets that America has already sent towards Iran. When the United States upped its presence in Persian Gulf earlier this year, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta told reporters, "We want them to know that we are fully prepared to deal with any contingency and it's better for them to try to deal with us through diplomacy."

http://rt.com/usa/news/war-sub-drone-iran-066/

[VandeWiel]

Major military buildup?

Yousaywhat?

Is mij iets ontgaan of ligt daar enkel een vloot en wat versterkte usaf  ?

Definieer build up anno 2012

Maar, 1 squadron F22's, 8 mijnenvegers ipv 4, de Ponce nieuw in functie als floating base en een bericht dat de USS Stennis vervroegd naar de Golf gaat als derde carrier (CDG is 4e) is gezien wat er al in de regio aanwezig is en gezien wat je "slechts" nodig hebt om Iran een flinke tik te geven ruimschoots voldoende.

Uiteindelijk draait het de komende weken nog om de onderhandelingen. Sancties zijn blijkbaar niet voldoende voor Iran dus worden er berichten rondgestuurd dat het serieus is. En ik verwacht niet dat de Iraniers het serieus gaan nemen.

Daarnaast is er door het ingaan van de sancties het risico op pesterijtjes van Iran in Hormuz. Daar moet je ook klaar voor liggen. Het merendeel van de huidige versterkingen zijn vooral gericht op het counteren van a-symmetrische acties om ze zo af te raden omdat ze toch zinloos zullen zijn met de nieuwe middelen.

Waar ik het meest bang voor ben is dat er op een gegeven moment een week van te voren een beslissing wordt genomen en dingen in gang worden gezet die dan niet meer te stoppen zijn. Dat punt kan wel eens heel snel en toch onverwacht (voor de Iraniers) gaan komen.

[Huzaar1]

Major military buildup?

Yousaywhat?

Is mij iets ontgaan of ligt daar enkel een vloot en wat versterkte usaf  ?

[Lex]

Navy sends tiny submersibles to Persian Gulf

WASHINGTON — The Navy is rushing dozens of unmanned underwater craft to the Persian Gulf to help detect and destroy mines in a major military buildup aimed at preventing Iran from closing the strategic Strait of Hormuz in the event of a crisis, U.S. officials said.

The tiny SeaFox submersibles each carry an underwater television camera, homing sonar and an explosive charge. The Navy bought them in May after an urgent request by Marine Gen. James Mattis, the top U.S. commander in the Middle East.

Each submersible is about 4 feet long and weighs less than 100 pounds. The craft are intended to boost U.S. military capabilities as negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program appear to have stalled. Three rounds of talks since April between Iran and the five countries in the United Nations Security Council plus Germany have made little progress.

Some U.S. officials are wary that Iran may respond to tightening sanctions on its banking and energy sectors, including a European Union oil embargo, by launching or sponsoring attacks on oil tankers or platforms in the Persian Gulf. Some officials in Tehran have threatened to close the narrow waterway, a choke point for a fifth of the oil traded worldwide.

The first of the SeaFox submersibles arrived in the Gulf in recent weeks, officials said, along with four MH-53 Sea Dragon helicopters and four minesweeping ships, part of a larger buildup of U.S. naval, air and ground forces in the region aimed at Iran.

The U.S. already has sent two aircraft carriers and a squadron of F-22 fighters to the Persian Gulf, and is keeping two U.S. army brigades in Kuwait. Though much of the buildup has been publicly acknowledged by the Pentagon, the deployment of the submersibles has not been publicly disclosed, apparently to avoid alerting Iran.

The SeaFox is small enough to be deployed from helicopters and even small rubber boats, but it also can be dropped off the back of a minesweeper. It is controlled by a fiber optic cable and sends live video back to a camera operator.

It can be used against floating or drifting mines, which Iran has used in the past. It operates up to 300 meters deep, and moves at speeds of up to six knots. But the $100,000 weapon is on what amounts to a suicide mission. The "built-in, large caliber shaped charge" it carries destroys the mine but also the vehicle itself.

Tribune Washington Bureau
July 11, 2012

[Ace1]

'China investeert $ 20 mrd in Iraanse olievelden'

De Iraanse autoriteiten claimen dat een Chinees bedrijf ruim euro 16 mrd investeert in de ontwikkeling van twee Iraanse olievelden. Om welk Chinees bedrijf het zou gaan, is niet duidelijk. Dat meldde de Iraanse olieminister Rostam Qasemi zondag.

Een dergelijke deal is opmerkelijk na de nieuwe embargo's tegen Iran die vorige week zijn ingegaan. Europa heeft de import van olie uit Iran verboden en de Amerikaanse autoriteiten verbieden financiële transacties met de centrale bank van Iran. Landen die zich daar niet aan houden, mogen geen zaken meer doen in Amerika.

Het bericht uit Teheran wordt bevestigd noch ontkend op de Chinese website China Daily, een belangrijke spreekbuis van de Chinese autoriteiten. Kenners zeggen dat slechts drie Chinese oliebedrijven de slagkracht hebben voor dergelijke investeringen: PetroChina, Cnooc en Sinopec. Deze bedrijven melden niets van de deal op hun websites.

Embargo omzeilen

Afgelopen weekeind meldden de Iraanse autoriteiten ook dat er een manier is gevonden om het Europese olie-embargo te omzeilen. Teheran zegt dat met Europese raffinaderijen is afgesproken ze via een omweg te beleveren. Daarbij zou een privaat consortium een aparte entiteit hebben opgezet. Ook in dit bericht worden geen namen van bedrijven genoemd.

Internationale persbureau's melden tegelijk dat de sancties in Iran duidelijk voelbaar worden. Minder goederen bereiken het land, vooral door het Amerikaanse embargo.

http://fd.nl/economie-politiek/199193-1207/china-investeert-20-mrd-in-iraanse-olievelden

[jurrien visser (JuVi op Twitter)]

Iran to shut Hormuz Strait "if threatened": commander

English.news.cn   2012-07-07 20:16:55

TEHRAN, July 7 (Xinhua) -- The chairman of Iran's Joint Chiefs of Staff said Iran will close Hormuz Strait if threatened, Press TV reported on Saturday.

Iran does have the plan to shut down the strategic Strait of Hormuz, but would execute it only if the nation's security is threatened, Major General Hassan Firuzabadi said.

"We do have the plan to close the Strait of Hormuz, since a member of the military must plan for all scenarios," Firuzabadi said Friday on the sidelines of a conference in Tehran.

An Iranian lawmaker also reiterated Wednesday threats that the Islamic republic would close the strategic strait in the Persian Gulf if the Western sanctions against Iran increase.

"If we completely go under the sanctions, we will not let a single drop of oil pass through the Hormuz Strait," said Arsalan Fathipour, head of the Economic Commission of Iranian Majlis ( parliament).

Some Iranian government and military officials have already threatened to use all means, particularly closing the Strait of Hormuz, if the Western sanctions over Tehran's controversial nuclear activities halt Iran's exports and hurt the interests of the Islamic republic.

In January, EU foreign ministers approved new sanctions against Tehran, which prevent its member states from buying the Iranian crude. The sanctions went into effect Sunday.

Moreover, the United States imposed a new round of sanctions of its own in June, targeting financial institutions of any country that buys Iranian oil. However, it has exempted 20 economies from the sanctions for a period of 180 days.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/world/2012-07/07/c_131701419.htm