Z-Koreaans marineschip gezonken; de gevolgen voor de regio

[Elzenga]

angst en paranoia...

[Lex]

N. Korea Threatens '1,000-Fold' Increase in Weapons

SEOUL, South Korea -- North Korea's media on Saturday threatened "1,000-fold" military buildup as the United States ruled out lifting sanctions to try to coax Pyongyang into resuming talks aimed at its nuclear weapons programs.

Last year, North Korea quit the nuclear disarmament talks and later tested an atomic device that drew tightened U.N. sanctions. But the North has recently expressed willingness to rejoin the negotiations, which include the U.S., South Korea, China, Japan and Russia.

North Korean First Vice Foreign Minister Kim Kye Gwan said this week that his country will not return to the disarmament-for-aid talks unless sanctions are lifted, according to South Korea's Yonhap news agency.

U.S. State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley responded Friday that sanctions exist because North Korea consistently has failed to live up to its international obligations. "We have no intention of removing those sanctions as an enticement for dialogue," he told reporters.

Saturday's Minju Joson newspaper, part of North Korea's state-controlled media, said in a commentary that the country's war deterrent force will be strengthened "100- or 1,000-fold" as long as the U.S. military threats persist, according to the North's official Korean Central News Agency.

The North has often made similar threats. The latest one came two days after South Korea wrapped up naval drills with the U.S., Australia and Japan aimed at intercepting illicit weapon shipments in a U.S.-led program targeting nations such as North Korea.

Despite repeated assurances from Washington, the North believes any military drills involving the U.S. are aimed at an eventual invasion. The naval drills were "an undisguised military provocation and declaration of a war against" North Korea, the North's main Rodong Sinmun newspaper said in a commentary carried by KCNA.

This week's one-day maneuvers were Seoul's first active participation in the Proliferation Security Initiative, aimed at deterring trade in weapons of mass destruction and missiles by states including North Korea and Iran.

Separately, the South Korean and the U.S. air forces kicked off their annual drills Friday, which they say are aimed at improving their combined combat capabilities. The drills will last for a week, according to Seoul's Defense Ministry.

North Korea's latest threats continue a trend of mixed messages from the North. Pyongyang has recently reached out to South Korea and called for talks on the resumption of stalled tours to a resort inside North Korea. The two sides have also agreed to hold the first reunions in a year later this month for families divided by the Korean War.

Published October 16, 2010 | Associated Press

[Lex]

'Twijfel over Noord-Koreaanse torpedo'

NEW YORK - Amerikaanse wetenschappers betwijfelen of het Zuid-Koreaanse marineschip Cheonan eind maart werd getroffen door een Noord-Koreaanse torpedo. Dat maakten ze donderdag bekend op een persconferentie in New York.

De uitkomst van het eerdere officiële onderzoek door Seoul naar de ramp waarbij 46 opvarenden omkwamen, bevat volgens de onderzoekers ,,tegenstrijdigheden die vele vragen opwerpen". Het resultaat van het Zuid-Koreaanse onderzoek dat werd onderschreven door internationale deskundigen is volgens hen gebrekkig. Sommige gegevens kunnen volgens hen zijn gemanipuleerd.

De wetenschappers stellen dat niet met zekerheid is vastgesteld dat de Cheonan door een Noord-Koreaanse torpedo werd getroffen en dat zelfs niet zeker is dat het schip door een uitwendige explosie tot zinken werd gebracht . Ze roepen op tot een nieuw, onafhankelijk onderzoek.

Telegraaf, vr 01 okt 2010, 16:29

[VandeWiel]

The meeting and the military exercises come as tensions appear to be easing on the Korean peninsula.

Deze indruk kreeg ik ook juist de laatste weken op basis van diverse min of meer positieve berichten.

Over het algemeen heb ik het niet zo hoog op met Russische berichten over gevaren in de wereld. Van de andere kant is het aanstaande congres in Noord-Korea ook een niet te onderschatten gebeurtenis.

Van de andere kant:

The North denies involvement in the sinking and criticises the exercises as a rehearsal for war.
"A serious situation, in which an all-out war may break out by any accident, is now prevailing in the Korean peninsula," said ruling party newspaper Rodong Sinmun this week.
"However, the US war maniacs are ceaselessly beefing up armed forces and staging war games in this acute hotspot, which may drive the situation to an unpredictable grave phase."

en over de oefening:

The drill will be held from next Monday to Friday in the Yellow Sea between China and Korea. It was postponed early this month due to an approaching typhoon.
It will not involve a US aircraft carrier, unlike the first joint naval exercise held in late July. That drill was relocated from the Yellow Sea to the east coast of the peninsula in response to China's expressions of concern.
The statement said US forces would send two US guided missile destroyers, a surveillance ship, a fast attack submarine and P-3C Orion aircraft to next week's drill.
South Korea would send two destroyers, a fast frigate, a patrol craft, P-3C aircraft and a submarine.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gEFNGgjcU1N60Q2ncNkblSQSk1qg

[VandeWiel]

The United States and South Korea are preparing to hold a joint sea exercise, scheduled to begin the day before the expected opening of a rare meeting of North Korea's only political party.

South Korean and U.S. military officials say the five-day exercise is meant to send a strong message of deterrence to North Korea, and also to strengthen the general capacity of joint anti-submarine warfare, says Army Colonel Lee Bung-woo, a spokesman for the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff.
The official North Korean newspaper, the Rodong Sinmun, condemned the war games, saying they "may drive the situation to an unpredictable grave phase."

The maneuvers begin the day before North Korea's Workers' Party is scheduled to hold its first meeting since 1966, at which a leadership shuffle is expected. It was originally expected to begin by mid-September, and official North Korean media gave no reason for the delay.

Analysts speculate that at this conference Kim Jong Un, the youngest son of supreme leader Kim Jong Il, will be named to a committee post, the first step for him to eventually succeed his ailing father.

The meeting and the military exercises come as tensions appear to be easing on the Korean peninsula.

The U.S. and South Korea have held a series of training exercises as part of their response to the sinking of a South Korean warship six months ago. An international investigation concluded that a North Korean torpedo destroyed the Cheonan, killing 46 South Korean sailors. Pyongyang denies responsibility. China has joined in North Korea in denouncing the exercises, particularly this one, because it takes place in the Yellow Sea, close to Chinese territory.

In recent weeks, however, rhetoric has cooled. South Korea recently sent aid to help North Korea recover from devastating floods.

North Korea also proposed resuming a program to re-unite long-divided families. On Friday, officials from the Red Cross committees of the two Koreas met at Kaesong, just north of the heavily fortified border for their second round of talks on holding another reunion. The first discussion, a week ago, failed to reach agreement on a venue.

The two Koreas remain at war, technically. Their three-year civil war, which ended with a truce but no treaty in 1953, caused several million civilian and military casualties and separated countless families.

http://www.voanews.com/english/news/South-Korea-US-Prepare-for-Anti-Sub-Warfare-Drill--103702379.html

[Lex]

South Korea's final word on sinking: North's torpedo blast

South Korea on Monday released its final report on the March sinking of the warship Cheonan, reaffirming that a North Korean torpedo sent the Cheonan to the bottom of the Yellow Sea, killing 46 sailors.
The full report, prepared based on an investigation conducted by South Korean, U.S., Swedish, British and Australian officials, offers new details to back up May's preliminary report on the incident.
"The ROK Navy ship Cheonan was sunk by a North Korean torpedo attack while conducting a normal mission in the vicinity of Baengnyeong Island at 09:22 p.m. on March 26, 2010," the English-version of the report says in its conclusion, according to a Korea Times report.
The report says the torpedo did not strike the ship, but the shockwave generated when it exploded nearby split the Cheonan in two.
"The detonation location was 3 meters to the port from the center of the gas turbine room and at a depth of 6 to 9 meters. The weapon system used was a CHT-02D torpedo with approximately 250 kilograms of explosives manufactured by North Korea." South Korea's Yonhap news agency quotes the report as saying.
The shockwave effect is substantiated by survivors' accounts, according to the Yonhap report.
"Forty-one survivors said that they smelled oil, but there were no witnesses of flames, fire or a water column, nor were there any injuries from these factors," Yonhap quotes the full report as saying.
Critics say the final report still leaves questions. For instance, while investigators found traces of explosives on the hull of the Cheonan, no trace of explosives was found on torpedo parts recovered from the scene.
Investigators said that could be because the torpedo parts were too small to hold trace explosives, according to a Korea Herald report.
The final report also includes communication between the captain of the Cheonan, Cmdr. Choi Won-il, and his boss, squadron commander Capt. Lee Won-bo, according to Yonhap.
"I think we've been hit by something," Choi tells Lee.
"What do you think it is?" Lee asks.
"I think it's a torpedo," Choi says.
North Korea has denied any involvement in the sinking of the Cheonan, calling the results of the preliminary report "sheer fabrication," according to its official Korea Central News Agency. KCNA had not yet posted any reaction to the full report.
U.S. forces during the summer conducted anti-submarine exercises with South Korea. Further exercises are planned, U.S. officials say.

CNN,
September 13th, 2010 08:59 AM ET

[Lex]

 S. Korea promises immediate response to N. Korea artillery

Any further North Korean artillery strikes south of the maritime boundary between North and South Korea will be met with shelling from the South, the South's defense minister said Tuesday.

On August 9, North Korea fired more than 100 artillery rounds toward the Northern Limit Line, the sea border between the two Koreas set after the Korean War. Ten of those rounds fell south of the line, according to news reports from South Korea. At that time, the South did not return fire but sent warning messages through military channels to the North.

"Under the previous rules of engagement (near the NLL), we're supposed to send warnings through hotlines and not return fire unless the North fires additional shots," Defense Minister Kim Tae-young told a parliamentary committee on Tuesday, according to a report from The Korea Times.

New rules call for an immediate military response, but still require the North to be warned that the South Korean shelling is coming.

"If North Korea fires artillery rounds south of the NLL, we will respond by firing toward north of the NLL," the Yonhap news agency quoted Kim as saying.

Tension between the Korean Peninsula neighbors has been heightened since the sinking of a South Korean warship, the Cheonan, in March.

South Korea and an international inquiry found a torpedo fired by a North Korea submarine responsible for the sinking, in which 46 South Korean sailors died. The North has denied any role in the loss of the Cheonan.

South Korea has since staged military exercises - including anti-submarine drills with U.S. forces - which the North has called a provocation. It was shortly after South Korean naval maneuvers concluded on August 9 that the North fired its artillery barrage.

Last Friday, the U.S. military said it will conduct new anti-submarine exercises with South Korea next month.

CNN, 11:56 AM ET

[Enforcer]

Het nietig verklaren van de schuld van/door de Amerikanen bij China zou zo maar als oorlogsverklaring gezien kunnen worden.

China is al jarenlang de economische vijand. Ze zijn begonnen om met dumpprijzen de Westerse markten te overspoelen. De vraag is of al het geld en de enorme groei in China niet zal gaan leiden tot interne veranderingen. Daar zal de USA en de EU ook goed rekening mee moeten houden.

Op dit moment zie ik nog niet veel (grote) gevolgen van het zinken van de Cheonan mbt de regio, buiten de gebruikelijke politieke machtsspelletjes.

waarmee je dus eigenlijk stelt dat het best mogelijk is een schip als de cheoan te torpederen zonder dat daar consequenties aan verbonden zijn. Klinkt vreemd, of niet dan?

Kijk naar de huidige situatie en blijkbaar is het mogelijk omdat alle andere alternatieven (buiten diplomatieke druk) mogelijk negatiever zijn als het gezichtsverlies. DE vorige Koreaanse regering heeft de situatie gebruikt/misbruikt tijdens de verkiezingen en heeft verloren. Daar is de angel er waarschijnlijk uitgegaan.

[Enforcer]

Het nietig verklaren van de schuld van/door de Amerikanen bij China zou zo maar als oorlogsverklaring gezien kunnen worden.

China is al jarenlang de economische vijand. Ze zijn begonnen om met dumpprijzen de Westerse markten te overspoelen. De vraag is of al het geld en de enorme groei in China niet zal gaan leiden tot interne veranderingen. Daar zal de USA en de EU ook goed rekening mee moeten houden.

Op dit moment zie ik nog niet veel (grote) gevolgen van het zinken van de Cheonan mbt de regio, buiten de gebruikelijke politieke machtsspelletjes.

[Elzenga]

Slated U.S. Carrier Visit to Yellow Sea Irks China

"Offending Chinese people is not in the fundamental interest of the U.S. Any activity aimed at pushing a country with a 1.3-billion populace with enormous potential would be inadvisable."

Zie hier, steeds meer nemen de Chinezen hun rol als wereldmacht.

Inderdaad...maar of de Amerikanen deze raad gaan volgen? Ik vermoed zo dat er in Amerika drie kampen aan het ontstaan zijn. Zij die goede betrekkingen met China willen behouden gezien de handel en financiering van het Amerikaanse begrotingstekort. En zij die China steeds meer als een nieuwe vijand gaan projecteren, een nieuwe Koude Oorlog propageren, en mogelijk die vijandigheid gaan aanwenden om de financiële schuld bij China nietig te verklaren. En een groep die iets van beiden doet en bepleit. Dit met een nieuwe Amerikaanse economische dip op handen...Ik ben benieuwd welke kant dit op gaat. Deze woordenstrijd vind ik geen goed voorteken in ieder geval. 

[Lex]

Slated U.S. Carrier Visit to Yellow Sea Irks China

TAIPEI - Chinese government and state-run media outlets are angrily protesting the Pentagon's Aug. 5 announcement to send the aircraft carrier George Washington into the Yellow Sea (West Sea) in upcoming exercises with South Korea.

The exact date the aircraft carrier would enter the Yellow Sea was not released. The George Washington did not enter the Yellow Sea during exercises last month, supposedly after Chinese objections, but plans to do so in upcoming exercises have once again enraged Beijing.

China "won't stand for U.S. naval provocation," said Maj. Gen. Luo Yuan in an editorial published in the Aug. 9 edition of Global Times.

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Jiang Yu in an Aug. 9 statement to the press said, "we have expressed our clear and firm position on the ROK-U.S. joint military exercises to the relevant parties on several occasions. We urge the relevant parties to take China's position and concern seriously."

An Aug. 13 article on the state-run Xinhua news website warned the U.S. not to move the carrier into the Yellow Sea.

"Offending Chinese people is not in the fundamental interest of the U.S. Any activity aimed at pushing a country with a 1.3-billion populace with enormous potential would be inadvisable."

The recent joint naval exercises between the U.S. and South Korea are in response to the sinking of the South Korean corvette Cheonan by North Korea on March 26. China has denied allegations North Korea was behind the sinking, despite the discovery of the remains of a North Korean-built CHT-02D torpedo found at the scene.

Luo, deputy secretary-general of the People's Liberation Army Academy of Military Sciences, said the Pentagon decision was a "deliberate provocation" and the U.S. should "think twice about the maneuver."

"Imagine what the consequences will be if China's biggest debtor nation challenges its creditor nation," he said. Economic observers estimate China holds roughly $750 billion in U.S. debt.

Luo said China is the "world's largest market" and "offending China means losing, or at least decreasing market share."
This is not the first time Luo and other PLA officials have used the economic card to threaten the U.S. Luo, along with Maj. Gen. "Tiger" Zhu Chenghu, director-general, National Defense University, made similar public comments shortly after the U.S. released a $6 billion arms deal to Taiwan in January.

China discontinued military-to-military exchanges with the U.S. after the arms release to Taiwan. The U.S. is now considering the release of new F-16 fighter aircraft to replace Taiwan's aging F-5s, but China has called the release a "red line."

AP,
Published: 13 Aug 2010 10:17

[Lex]

Exclusive: How the Cheonan Really Sank — and What Happens to the Koreas Now?

On a chilly spring evening late last March, a South Korean naval ship called the Cheonan was conducting routine exercises in waters just off the coast of a sparsely populated island in what the Koreans call the West Sea (better known as the Yellow Sea), just 10 kilometers from North Korean land. It was just before 9:30, and for most of the ship's 104 crew members, work was done for the day. Some sat in the ship's mess chatting; others were exercising in a small gym. A few had already headed to their bunks for a night's rest. The ship's commanding officer, Choi Won Il, had retired to his cabin for the night and was checking email.

What happened next would shock and anger many South Koreans and roil that country's politics. It would also contribute heavily to a deteriorating diplomatic and security climate not just on the Korean peninsula, but throughout East Asia. Within a few weeks, the South Korean government privately became convinced that a North Korean "midget" submarine fired a torpedo that sunk the Cheonan, killing 46 sailors. They went public with that suspicion on May 20. The South Koreans had dredged up the shattered vessel in sections, and also recovered the remains of what it claimed was a North Korean torpedo.

The North Koreans have steadfastly denied that and — thanks to support from China and Russia, both members of the U.N. Security Council — managed to successfully tamp down international outrage over the incident. On July 9, the U.N Security Council issued only a "Presidential statement," a milquetoast declaration which condemned the attack on the Cheonan but failed to identify who the attacker might have been. Ever since, President Lee Myung Bak's government in South Korea has vowed to release the full investigative report done by the international team (which brought in experts from the United States, the U.K., Australia and Sweden). It is a document Seoul says will prove conclusively that, in the words of Kim Tae Hyo, President Lee's senior adviser on relations with Pyongyang, "that there is no other plausible explanation" except that a North Korean torpedo sank the Cheonan.

In South Korea, where attitudes toward the North go to the core of the country's politics, opposition politicians have expressed deep skepticism with the official line that Pyongyang was at fault. Choi Moon Soon of the opposition Democratic Party, a member of the National assembly, is typical. He told TIME on August 13 that he believes the ship simply ran aground, and that the government concocted the whole North Korea attack story as a way to influence local elections that were held on June 2. (Elections which President Lee's ruling party actually lost.) He says he doesn 't believe the government will ever publish the report, and questions even whether it actually exists.

It does. The document, a draft of which has been seen by TIME, consists of 286 pages of sometimes dense scientific and engineering analysis. It not only presents the case for why a North Korean attack is the "only plausible possibility" but sources with detailed knowledge of its preparation say that its intent is to pick apart, in a manner worthy of a Sherlock Holmes story, the most prominent competing theories that have been publicly raised in the months sine the incident. There is no way the ship ran aground, the report says, because the damage to the Cheonan's hull was in no way consistent with that scenario. To the contrary, "two types of hull deformations, impossible to occur in a grounding event, were observed."

The possibility of a friendly fire episode, widely debated on the web in South Korea and elsewhere, is similarly dismissed. The report asserts that all "submarines from neighboring countries were either in or near their home bases at the time of the incident." A collision with another boat? No trace of "an incoming vessel" was found. A ship-to-ship or ground-to-ship missile? The damage done to the Cheonan, the report states, would have been considerably different had that happened. In all, the report runs through 10 different possible scenarios of why the ship might have sunk, and after outlining the evidence in each of those cases it concludes with the words: "no chance."

By contrast, it labels the notion that a North Korean torpedo struck and sunk the Cheonan as a "high possibility." It asserts that the survivors of the Cheonan heard "one or two explosion sounds [sic]," and says that South Korean Marine sentries posted on the nearby Baekyrong Island testified to seeing "a flash of white light" about 100 meters in height. The report further states that analysis done by the U.S. Navy for the joint commission concludes that the sub fired a torpedo with an explosive weight of 250 kilograms that blew up just under the center of the boat, to its port side, at a depth of six to nine meters. The report goes on to a detailed technical discussion of "shape and trace analysis," which explains why the damage done to the Cheonan's hull is consistent with a torpedo attack.

It s unclear yet whether the full report will satisfy the outside academic skeptics who have raised questions about the government's conclusion. For example, Lee Seunghun, a physicist at the University of Virginia, has questioned, among other things, why the numeral 1, written in magic marker on the torpedo fragment that the government recovered on May 15 and displayed at a press conference five days later, would not have evaporated given the heat generated in an explosion. (The report states among other things that the portion of the torpedo on which the markings were found — part of its propulsion system — was pushed back upon detonation and thus escaped the heat generated by the blast.)

Kim, the presidential adviser, who sits on Seoul's National Security Council, says the report is in the final stages of preparation for public release, which will happen "soon." Others sources in Seoul have suggested within two weeks. By releasing the full report, the South Korean government, at minimum, may succeed in putting its domestic political critics onto their back foot. Indeed, some conservative politicians in Seoul have conceded that the government should already have made the detailed report public. "They've made some mistakes," says Chung Ok Nim, a national assemblywoman in Lee's ruling party.

The report will have repercussions beyond Seoul. It could conceivably generate more heat for both China and Russia, given their role in carrying North Korea's water in the Cheonan affair at the United Nations. China originally even opposed the weak "Presidential statement" that the U.N. Security Council ultimately issued, diplomatic sources have said. Beijing modified its stance ultimately when presented with the joint investigative group's report earlier this summer, but then protested loudly when the U.S. and South Korea announced plans to stage five day naval exercises as a response to the attack. The Lee government invited the Chinese to send a delegation to review the findings of the Joint Investigation Group together, but Beijing declined.

That's probably not surprising. The report appears pretty damning, and once it goes public, Beijing, as the North's sole economic lifeline and diplomatic big brother, will likely just want to change the subject. It's hard to argue with South Koreans who believe the Cheonan attack was an act of war; and just as hard to argue that Pyongyang is paying much of a price for it.

Time.com, Friday, Aug. 13, 2010

[Lex]

Chinese army slams S. Korea-U.S. sea drills

BEIJING — China's military on Thursday condemned a second round of U.S.-South Korean naval drills planned in the Yellow Sea in the coming weeks, vowing it would respond in kind.

Beijing opposes actions by foreign military ships and planes in waters near its coast that could "affect China's security interests," the military's newspaper People's Liberation Army Daily said in an editorial.

"If no one harms me, I harm no one, but if someone harms me, I must harm them," said the editorial, signed by Maj. Gen. Luo Yuan, a frequent outspoken commentator on military matters.

"As far as the Chinese people and the Chinese military are concerned, these are not joking remarks," Luo wrote.

China has repeatedly criticized the drills, saying they risked heightening tensions on the Korean peninsula and ignored its objections to any foreign military exercises off its coast.

The expected participation of the aircraft carrier USS George Washington is particularly irksome to China because of its status as a symbol of U.S. power in the Pacific and the possibility of its F-18 warplanes flying within range of Beijing.

The exercises are the second in a series of U.S.-South Korean maneuvers to be conducted in the East Sea off Korea and the Yellow Sea. No date has been announced, but they are expected to happen in the coming weeks. The first maneuvers were conducted last week.

Although the Yellow Sea consists mostly of international waters, China regards it as lying within its vaguely defined security perimeter. China's Foreign Ministry issued a statement earlier this week demanding the U.S. and South Korea "take China's position and concern seriously."

While Luo's editorial mentioned no specific responses, China has recently given an unusual degree of publicity to a series of military drills and live-firing exercises along its eastern coastline — seen by some as a direct response to the U.S.-South Korean exercises.

The criticism comes amid renewed verbal sniping between Beijing and Washington over the South China Sea, which China claims in its entirety, along with the myriad tiny islands lying within it.

Vietnam, Taiwan, Malaysia, Brunei and the Philippines also have staked claims on all or some of the territory, which straddles vital shipping lanes, important fishing grounds and is believed rich in oil and natural gas reserves.

China responded with outrage when U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told a regional conference last month that the U.S. had a "national interest" in seeing territorial disputes in the South China Sea resolved through a "collaborative diplomatic process by all claimants."

Beijing prefers to leverage its size and strength to deal with each claimant individually and blasted Clinton's remarks as U.S. interference in its affairs.

China has also been alarmed by joint search-and-rescue exercises this week between the U.S. and Vietnamese navies, viewing it as part of efforts to build an "Asian NATO" to contain Beijing's rising influence.

The Associated Press
Posted : Thursday Aug 12, 2010 7:39:14 EDT

[Laurens]

..... grote school ?

:lol:

[Elzenga]

Bestaan er eigenlijk al systemen die op grote school artillerie-shells kunnen onderscheppen.

Laser, kogelregen de lucht in, of zoiets?

C-RAM, Nächstbereichschutzsystem MANTIS, Iron-Dome en inderdaad lasersysteem Skyguard.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counter-RAM